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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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6 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

I'm not sure the models trend NW as much as they did in the past. As discussed previously (it's fairly even between south & north trends); it seems the coders for the models have fixed (adjusted for) that particular problem.

Looks like the GFS and Euro have anywhere from 3 to 10 inches here. I'd take 3 and call it a day. But woukd be shocked to see anything this time of year.

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Everyone needs to be skeptical of this setup, its hard enough to get snow here in mid winter, much less in mid March. That said it makes a certain kind of sense that this is going to happen to offset the crazy warm period we have been in, its how mother nature rolls. we have 5 days for this to change, hell even if it stays the same for the next 5 days that doesnt mean its right, the GFS had me getting a foot of snow for 3-4 straight days of runs on the Jan storm and I ended up with 1.5" of sleet after a night of 32 degrees and pouring rain.

The setup though has produced for us before with the above example of March 1960, I also remember a Jan event in the early 2000's where the low track was cross country like this and the low passed just south of NC giving almost the entire state snow with higher amounts in the mts and coastal areas. If it does happen the snow is probably going to be Carolina Concrete and if 6-12" does fall all the leafed out Bradford Pears and other trees will take a lot of damage I bet.  

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It's not a bad set up. There's a big high coming down from Canada and not moving out during the storm. It won't be fully in place at the start, but close. The low track, if it is somewhat suppressed as has been shown even before today, could work pretty well with that to produce wintry precip in the northern or western parts of the state. The H5 pattern is reasonable for this, with broad trough over the east and out into the Atlantic, which would prevent much northward movement and also keep confluence in place over the northern US to maintain that high pressure. We are lacking a snowpack over the central and northern US and it is March. Also, at this time frame, the models tend to have the storms way south. Just in the past 10 runs, the snow area went from NYC-BOS down to central NC. That's ridiculous. I expect northward adjustment as we get closer, and that'll probably kill snow or even mix chances for south and east NC and probably even central NC. We'll see. Either way, cold rain in early-mid March to offset the warm weather would be welcome.

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6 minutes ago, NCsandhills said:

Ha, after the Jan 6 disaster I'm not even going to bother looking at the GEFS. For several days beforehand it was very consistent in having several big dog for crl NC. Not trusting it this time either. 

I enjoyed the 10" we got in Greensboro though! Sure Raleigh didnt get much but some of central NC did.

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19 minutes ago, NCsandhills said:

Ha, after the Jan 6 disaster I'm not even going to bother looking at the GEFS. For several days beforehand it was very consistent in having several big dog for crl NC. Not trusting it this time either. 

The problem is the GEFS maps do not take out ice from the accumulation totals therefore showing wide swaths of high snow totals that won't verify if there is a lot of mixing, which we saw and they depicted. Looking at the individual panels is helpful and during that storm there was a lot of mixing depicted by the members.. best course of action is to use soundings and NAM for warm noses when in range. 

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