mackerel_sky Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 24 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Re: ENSO, the short story is that tropical forcing patterns (influenced by SSTs) influence the jet stream. Common SST configurations, i.e. Nino/Nina, create semi-predictable forcing patterns, which in turn tend to promote semi-predictable jet stream patterns, which we tend to think of as base Nino/Nina climo. A SER is often a feature noted during Nina periods. A more active split flow/STJ is often a feature noted during Nino patterns, for example. That is the simple explanation, the best I understand it. I'll defer to someone much smarter than I for the technical discussion. Sorry, I think Brick quit posting here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 45 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Sorry, I think Brick quit posting here! Hahaha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: Hahaha! +3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: Sorry, I think Brick quit posting here! Don't see much of him anymore..... he did make a post on another board about pea sized hail in his back yard on Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 34 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Don't see much of him anymore..... he did make a post on another board about pea sized hail in his back yard on Saturday We're missing quite a number of posters... but if we get a storm in March, some of them will come back. They'll say "I knew winter wasn't over!". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 1 hour ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Don't see much of him anymore..... he did make a post on another board about pea sized hail in his back yard on Saturday He posted that here in the obs thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 1 hour ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Don't see much of him anymore..... he did make a post on another board about pea sized hail in his back yard on Saturday He'll be back next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 59 minutes ago, JoshM said: We're missing quite a number of posters... but if we get a storm in March, some of them will come back. They'll say "I knew winter wasn't over!". I'm sure we will get quite a storm in March. After all, it is often a very active month for severe weather in the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 5 hours ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: I'm sure we will get quite a storm in March. After all, it is often a very active month for severe weather in the south. I still think we get a good snow in March, around the 13 to 15 is looking very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 55 minutes ago, fritschy said: I still think we get a good snow in March, around the 13 to 15 is looking very interesting. Sadly, the 6z GFS has a frontal passage at this time! ! I think winter is finally over, no fantasy snow through the 24th! A few more cold shots though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: Sadly, the 6z GFS has a frontal passage at this time! ! I think winter is finally over, no fantasy snow through the 24th! A few more cold shots though! Yep, nothing showing at this time. I will say that the pattern would have some potential. But our problem now is the further into March we get the more perfect the setup has to be. As you stated, the cold shots do continue to show up. I heard a report this morning that many of the peach trees and strawberries down east were in full bloom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 2 hours ago, fritschy said: I still think we get a good snow in March, around the 13 to 15 is looking very interesting. If "we" means folks in the mountains then you might be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 Cosgrove is going with a very mild and mostly at or below average precip pattern in the SE for spring. His preliminary thoughts for summer seem to continue this pattern, potentially even intensifying it. It makes me think he consulted heavily with jshetley, prior to making his forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 21 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Cosgrove is going with a very mild and mostly at or below average precip pattern in the SE for spring. His preliminary thoughts for summer seem to continue this pattern, potentially even intensifying it. It makes me think he consulted heavily with jshetley, prior to making his forecast. He blew his winter forecast, so expect a wet spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: He blew his winter forecast, so expect a wet spring! Hope you are right. Dry as a bone here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 3 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: He blew his winter forecast, so expect a wet spring! Everybody busted this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 1 hour ago, POWERSTROKE said: Everybody busted this year Webber nailed it! According to him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 4 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: He blew his winter forecast, so expect a wet spring! Not happening at least during the next 2 weeks according to the GFS. And I think it goes on right through a VERY HOT and DRY summer that will be worse than 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 13 minutes ago, jshetley said: Not happening at least during the next 2 weeks according to the GFS. And I think it goes on right through a VERY HOT and DRY summer that will be worse than 2007. 2007 was a lot of fun: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 57 minutes ago, jshetley said: Not happening at least during the next 2 weeks according to the GFS. And I think it goes on right through a VERY HOT and DRY summer that will be worse than 2007. GFS has been money, all winter!! So it can't be wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 GFS 6z, has a colder look in long range and some backend snow for NC peeps around the 10-11 timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Quote around the 10-11 timeframe I can't wait for that to pan out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 Rapid Reaction: An Unusual Event for NC Drought Monitoring Posted on March 2, 2017 by Corey Davis and Rebecca Ward It's a tradition so well-established that you might not even know it happens. Every Thursday morning, the US Drought Monitor's weekly assessment of conditions becomes the official drought status for North Carolina. However, that's not the case this week. The map on the front page of the NC Drought Management Advisory Council (DMAC) website, which serves as the official drought designation for North Carolina, is different than the weekly US Drought Monitor (USDM) map. The official DMAC map for North Carolina reflects no changes from the previous week's USDM, while the USDM's version for this week added Extreme Drought (D3) across the southern Mountains and expanded Moderate (D1) and Severe (D2) drought conditions farther north. Rest of the story: http://climate.ncsu.edu/climateblog?id=228&h=a86bf486 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 Yay!!! Freeze watch for Friday night! We new it was coming, here it is! i expext 24-27 degrees out here in the country! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: Yay!!! Freeze watch for Friday night! We new it was coming, here it is! i expext 24-27 degrees out here in the country! I don't think RAH will post a watch/warning for their forecast area. They mentioned last night that it was still outside of their normal freeze watch/warning program. They did acknowledge this was a special situation because of how warm its been. Nevertheless a lot of early growth is about to die back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 13 minutes ago, FallsLake said: I don't think RAH will post a watch/warning for their forecast area. They mentioned last night that it was still outside of their normal freeze watch/warning program. They did acknowledge this was a special situation because of how warm its been. Nevertheless a lot of early growth is about to die back. I think they will. Early or not, a CYA advisory will be issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 3 hours ago, Solak said: Rapid Reaction: An Unusual Event for NC Drought Monitoring Posted on March 2, 2017 by Corey Davis and Rebecca Ward It's a tradition so well-established that you might not even know it happens. Every Thursday morning, the US Drought Monitor's weekly assessment of conditions becomes the official drought status for North Carolina. However, that's not the case this week. The map on the front page of the NC Drought Management Advisory Council (DMAC) website, which serves as the official drought designation for North Carolina, is different than the weekly US Drought Monitor (USDM) map. The official DMAC map for North Carolina reflects no changes from the previous week's USDM, while the USDM's version for this week added Extreme Drought (D3) across the southern Mountains and expanded Moderate (D1) and Severe (D2) drought conditions farther north. Rest of the story: http://climate.ncsu.edu/climateblog?id=228&h=a86bf486 Being on the rivers often and making a judgement by comparing past droughts, not just number discrepancies, I'd say the NCDMAC is more realistic. Yes it's bad but I'm not sure we're still in D3 as it says in Transylvania and southern Jackson county. It's much better than it was in the fall when it was widespread D3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 I don't think I've ever seen a Freeze Warning for areas of NC in early March like GSP just put out. I guess it is because it has been so hot for so long over the last month, but sub-freezing lows are pretty typical this time of year. The average last freeze for these areas is in early- to mid-April, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 9 minutes ago, superjames1992 said: I don't think I've ever seen a Freeze Warning for areas of NC in early March like GSP just put out. I guess it is because it has been so hot for so long over the last month, but sub-freezing lows are pretty typical this time of year. The average last freeze for these areas is in early- to mid-April, I think. Our average low is still in the 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 18 minutes ago, superjames1992 said: I don't think I've ever seen a Freeze Warning for areas of NC in early March like GSP just put out. I guess it is because it has been so hot for so long over the last month, but sub-freezing lows are pretty typical this time of year. The average last freeze for these areas is in early- to mid-April, I think. They issued it because of the fact of the overall warm winter and record warm February , the growing season has already started! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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