whamby Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 1 hour ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Are most of the Carolinas not going to get a freeze this weekend ? FFC has North GA below freezing for Sunday morning. appears not... Charlotte's NWS has the lowest temp at 38 for next 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 Crop-killer showing up on March 9th, per 6z GFS ! Luckily, it'll change at 12z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 7 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Crop-killer showing up on March 9th, per 6z GFS ! Luckily, it'll change at 12z! Still there for the 9th, and the 4th is trending colder. And then there's some fantasy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 Fantasy range... we can only hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 I have never seen spring arrive as early as it is right now. Just unbeleivable at everything blooming on February 24th. Its still 4 days away from the ole Feb 28th 15 year anniversary of the biggest snow Ive ever measured in MBY (17 inches), think burns had 19. Oh well as clark says "It can't get any worse Helen." seems like I posted that quote last year as Feb come to a close. Ya'll have fun cutting the grass and weedeating this weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 27 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: I have never seen spring arrive as early as it is right now. Just unbeleivable at everything blooming on February 24th. Its still 4 days away from the ole Feb 28th 15 year anniversary of the biggest snow Ive ever measured in MBY (17 inches), think burns had 19. Oh well as clark says "It can't get any worse Helen." seems like I posted that quote last year as Feb come to a close. Ya'll have fun cutting the grass and weedeating this weekend! The real issue is the future freezes we'll get in March. I'm usually a fan of cold and snow but I'm now a fan of continued above freezing temps. I've got peach trees in full bloom; I see little hope I'll see peaches this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 The thing is a hard freeze is more likely than not across the Piedmont of North Carolina in March. The average coldest March temperature is 22 in Greensboro, 23 in Raleigh, and 24 in Charlotte. Also for Atlanta the average coldest March temp is 28, Columbia's is 26, and Asheville's is 20. Also 24 for Greenville, SC, 26 for Fayetteville, 28 for Wilmington, and 25 for Greenville, NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 1 hour ago, lookingnorth said: The thing is a hard freeze is more likely than not across the Piedmont of North Carolina in March. The average coldest March temperature is 22 in Greensboro, 23 in Raleigh, and 24 in Charlotte. Also for Atlanta the average coldest March temp is 28, Columbia's is 26, and Asheville's is 20. Also 24 for Greenville, SC, 26 for Fayetteville, 28 for Wilmington, and 25 for Greenville, NC. 18z GFS - crop busting cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: 18z GFS - crop busting cold! RIP Strawberries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 15 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: 18z GFS - crop busting cold! From our gut busting buddy JB today--- Pattern headed our way Pal--- Winters last ditch effort for a wet snowflake lol!!! this, you can see why I am thinking there is alot of potential in the east, and even down into the southeast, but also showing you why I was excited over.. snowfall over 16 days is sinking south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 57 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: From our gut busting buddy JB today--- Pattern headed our way Pal--- Winters last ditch effort for a wet snowflake lol!!! this, you can see why I am thinking there is alot of potential in the east, and even down into the southeast, but also showing you why I was excited over.. snowfall over 16 days is sinking south A 1993 repeat for our area would be nice. Leave off the severe part and tornado. Nobody want's the severe storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 1 hour ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said: A 1993 repeat for our area would be nice. Leave off the severe part and tornado. Nobody want's the severe storms. Yes Sir, I agree!! It looks like it's definitely going to turn real cold (which we knew that would most likely happen) but it's very possible to get a nice snow if that pattern materializes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 Kinda the same old thing probably, we'll get the cold but of course there will be no moisture anywhere close by to give us a nice snow to end the season. l Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 Don't look Ethel---- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 Robert tooting the horn for cold second week of March. Says major pattern change on the way. Too bad it's a month late... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 12z GEFS really backed off the March snow, only one member shows a hit. Based on SVR today I would think the MA is now primed for some dendrites around 3/7-3/9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 06z gfs fantasy storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 15 hours ago, WeatherNC said: 12z GEFS really backed off the March snow, only one member shows a hit. Based on SVR today I would think the MA is now primed for some dendrites around 3/7-3/9. It will probably show up again in a couple of days, I wouldn't doubt at least the Mtns. may get another nice snow or two in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 4 hours ago, Mrwolf1972 said: 06z gfs fantasy storm Not to sound too negative, but wake me up when it gets inside of 7 days..... We have been fooled too many times this winter, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 11 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Not to sound too negative, but wake me up when it gets inside of 7 days..... We have been fooled too many times this winter, that's why I said fantasy lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 4 hours ago, Mrwolf1972 said: 06z gfs fantasy storm One thing I've noticed is that there have been several runs in the past couple of days that show a storm somewhere in the 9th to 14th of March, nothing consistent of course, but with it being the 384, it is exciting to see something after this dismal February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 1 hour ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Not to sound too negative, but wake me up when it gets inside of 7 minutes..... We have been fooled too many times this winter, Fyp! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 Steve Masters basically beside himself with glee. https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/alltime-warmth-for-february-stretches-to-new-england Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 This is kind of a general question but model analysis is kind of dead here lately so I don't figure anyone will mind. So I have learned that above-normal atmospheric heights (eg high 500 MB heights) are correlated with above-normal temps. Do "high" atmospheric heights cause warm temperatures or do warm temperatures cause high atmospheric heights? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 11 minutes ago, cbmclean said: This is kind of a general question but model analysis is kind of dead here lately so I don't figure anyone will mind. So I have learned that above-normal atmospheric heights (eg high 500 MB heights) are correlated with above-normal temps. Do "high" atmospheric heights cause warm temperatures or do warm temperatures cause high atmospheric heights? The latter. Warm air expands hence the higher altitude for the 500 MB isobar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 16 minutes ago, ajr said: The latter. Warm air expands hence the higher altitude for the 500 MB isobar. That's what I would have thought, but I lurk on here a lot and it seems that so many times people attribute warm temps to the presence of a ridge (in our case, the dreaded SER), but that seems to be backwards causality. So for example, what is it about La Nina climatology that causes warm temps in the SE? I have seen it said many times that it is because La Ninas tend to cause a ridge to cover the SE, but as we are talking about here, it would seem that something causes the warm temps, which causes the ridge. So what causes the warmth to begin with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 Just now, cbmclean said: That's what I would have thought, but I lurk on here a lot and it seems that so many times people attribute warm temps to the presence of a ridge (in our case, the dreaded SER), but that seems to be backwards causality. So for example, what is it about La Nina climatology that causes warm temps in the SE? I have seen it said many times that it is because La Ninas tend to cause a ridge to cover the SE, but as we are talking about here, it would seem that something causes the warm temps, which causes the ridge. So what causes the warmth to begin with? I don't understand El Niño/La Nina climatology well so I'll defer that to someone else. Re: SER, a ridge of high pressure S and SE of us helps pump in warmer air from the Gulf of Mexico. What creates that ridge in the first place is beyond my understanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 7 minutes ago, ajr said: I don't understand El Niño/La Nina climatology well so I'll defer that to someone else. Re: SER, a ridge of high pressure S and SE of us helps pump in warmer air from the Gulf of Mexico. What creates that ridge in the first place is beyond my understanding. Thanks ajr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 Already 2"+ behind for the month and 2" behind for the year! We may suck at snow and winter, but we kick ass at drought and heat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 Re: ENSO, the short story is that tropical forcing patterns (influenced by SSTs) influence the jet stream. Common SST configurations, i.e. Nino/Nina, create semi-predictable forcing patterns, which in turn tend to promote semi-predictable jet stream patterns, which we tend to think of as base Nino/Nina climo. A SER is often a feature noted during Nina periods. A more active split flow/STJ is often a feature noted during Nino patterns, for example. That is the simple explanation, the best I understand it. I'll defer to someone much smarter than I for the technical discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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