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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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1 hour ago, LovingGulfLows said:

 

Atlanta has gone I think 13 straight months of above average temperates and that doesn't look to stop going into March. Amazing. I truly hope we can have a cooler summer. I don't think I can handle another 2016-like Summer.

And the sad part is there's no end in sight ! We may never see a below normal month the rest of our lives at this rate ! Maybe we'll get lucky and there will be a huge volcanic eruption to cool us off for a month or two.

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43 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

And the sad part is there's no end in sight ! We may never see a below normal month the rest of our lives at this rate ! Maybe we'll get lucky and there will be a huge volcanic eruption to cool us off for a month or two.

Well if the supervolcano that Naples sits on (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phlegraean_Fields) goes, we'd be talking about 1816-style cooldowns...

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Unless things change, we are going to see the drought make a bigtime comeback going into spring and probably on into summer. It seems like any chance for good rain goes away as the events get near. What looked like a good event for Friday into Sat now looks like a few showers at best. Speaking of summer, this summer may very well make last summer look cool. Someone in the southeast may see 120 sometime in July or August.

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4 hours ago, jshetley said:

Unless things change, we are going to see the drought make a bigtime comeback going into spring and probably on into summer. It seems like any chance for good rain goes away as the events get near. What looked like a good event for Friday into Sat now looks like a few showers at best. Speaking of summer, this summer may very well make last summer look cool. Someone in the southeast may see 120 sometime in July or August.

I've missed this like herpes! You can tell Summer's hear early and we have to listen to this Sh!t for 8 months ! :(

You nailed your February forecast! :)

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14 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

Yeah...every time I see a map of ocean temps, I'm just astounded as to how much more area is covered by orange than blue.  I don't know of any way to empirically measure the intensity plus area of blue vs. orange, but anecdotally, it looks like the oceans are much warmer (on a net basis) than normal.  We're seeing ocean life die off at an alarming rate.  That is concerning from an ecosystem standpoint.  What is the critical point of deterioration in the ecosystem that will create a noticeable impact on human life?  If we're not there yet, we have to be getting close.

The thing that makes me despair of us doing anything about it is Joe Sixpack doesn't think about that.  All he thinks is "It's 70 degrees everyday in February: I love it".

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8 hours ago, cbmclean said:

The thing that makes me despair of us doing anything about it is Joe Sixpack doesn't think about that.  All he thinks is "It's 70 degrees everyday in February: I love it".

I think within the next 3-5 years, it will become evident to many sleeple that something's going on.

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21 hours ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

And the sad part is there's no end in sight ! We may never see a below normal month the rest of our lives at this rate ! Maybe we'll get lucky and there will be a huge volcanic eruption to cool us off for a month or two.

 

19 hours ago, jshetley said:

Unless things change, we are going to see the drought make a bigtime comeback going into spring and probably on into summer. It seems like any chance for good rain goes away as the events get near. What looked like a good event for Friday into Sat now looks like a few showers at best. Speaking of summer, this summer may very well make last summer look cool. Someone in the southeast may see 120 sometime in July or August.

 

Hyperbole much?  :lol:

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Actually the ridge in the east starts a bit before hour 240. But Mack just repeats the same ol thing which is ok because the winter has sucked big time. One thing is today's runs are complete opposite of what the models have been spitting out. Strang to see a 180 from one day to the next. I am not buying the 12z look though. 

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Grass is growing, Bradford pears are blooming, trees are started to bud, and allergies are starting to kick in. Looks like winter is over. Is it safe to say we won't see any more hard freezes?

Just looked at the 12z for the GFS and noticed the push of cold air and a big snow storm for us at 360 hrs. LOL we'll see.

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57 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Actually the ridge in the east starts a bit before hour 240. But Mack just repeats the same ol thing which is ok because the winter has sucked big time. One thing is today's runs are complete opposite of what the models have been spitting out. Strang to see a 180 from one day to the next. I am not buying the 12z look though. 

Agreed - certainly need some run to run continuity.   The last 120 hrs of the GFS has been all over the place for the last few days.  I've not checked any other models.

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Have we really seen that many 300+ hr modeled snow storms this year? Seems a lot fewer than normal.

The real threat, in my opinion, is what you guys have been mentioning; the killer freeze that is certain to show up after everything goes into full bloom. Snow would actually help in a situation like that by providing insulation from extreme cold temps. Without it, a lot of crops may be doomed from the onset this year.

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28 minutes ago, DixieBlizzard said:

Have we really seen that many 300+ hr modeled snow storms this year? Seems a lot fewer than normal.

The real threat, in my opinion, is what you guys have been mentioning; the killer freeze that is certain to show up after everything goes into full bloom. Snow would actually help in a situation like that by providing insulation from extreme cold temps. Without it, a lot of crops may be doomed from the onset this year.

Good point. There haven't been many fantasy storms at all in a while and the freeze threat is definitely there. Maybe March can break the string of above normal months.

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1 hour ago, DixieBlizzard said:

Have we really seen that many 300+ hr modeled snow storms this year? Seems a lot fewer than normal.

The real threat, in my opinion, is what you guys have been mentioning; the killer freeze that is certain to show up after everything goes into full bloom. Snow would actually help in a situation like that by providing insulation from extreme cold temps. Without it, a lot of crops may be doomed from the onset this year.

I was just telling someone that is new to the area about 2007 this weekend.  They were talking about planting their garden and I cautioned them to wait.  My dad's granny planted based on the moon not the weather and she always seemed to do good.

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1 hour ago, DixieBlizzard said:

Have we really seen that many 300+ hr modeled snow storms this year? Seems a lot fewer than normal.

The real threat, in my opinion, is what you guys have been mentioning; the killer freeze that is certain to show up after everything goes into full bloom. Snow would actually help in a situation like that by providing insulation from extreme cold temps. Without it, a lot of crops may be doomed from the onset this year.

Yeah we have not really. I think we have seen more storms miss inside 10 days than post 300.

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4 hours ago, yotaman said:

Grass is growing, Bradford pears are blooming, trees are started to bud, and allergies are starting to kick in. Looks like winter is over. Is it safe to say we won't see any more hard freezes?

Just looked at the 12z for the GFS and noticed the push of cold air and a big snow storm for us at 360 hrs. LOL we'll see.

If anything the abnormally warm period we are in makes something like the 12Z GFS more likely IMO.....climo wise its perfectly possible to see something like the 12Z GFS, though such a event would be well outside the norm even in a colder pattern so its pretty unlikely in any given year. That said it makes a twisted kind of sense for it to happen after being well above normal for most of the winter, mother nature seems to like correcting itself from time to time and usually the more out of whack we are one way the harder we correct to the other. 

 

18Z was kinda the same but without the big low off the SE coast so the cold isnt really there.....

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March 5th to 10th looks interesting to me... FYI, I work on a peach farm and have access to 20'ish years of bloom data. Bloom is running 20 days ahead of schedule this year and we are blooming a solid 12 days earlier than the next earliest year, (2001).  

On another note, 

This was also the lowest chill hour year we've had since we've kept records, (20 years). We average about 1400hrs below 45 degree's. This year we got 790hrs.... which means the higher chill peaches won't have a crop this year. (last year we got around 900 chill hours, also terrible, and most midland SC growers didn't have a crop for the late season varieties).  

 

So essentially if we get an early March freeze, we will lose the low chill varieties. The high chill varieties  most likely won't be blooming by then, but it won't matter b/c they didn't get enough chilling to set fruit... Double whammy!

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9 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

March 5th to 10th looks interesting to me... FYI, I work on a peach farm and have access to 20'ish years of bloom data. Bloom is running 20 days ahead of schedule this year and we are blooming a solid 12 days earlier than the next earliest year, (2001).  

On another note, 

This was also the lowest chill hour year we've had since we've kept records, (20 years). We average about 1400hrs below 45 degree's. This year we got 790hrs.... which means the higher chill peaches won't have a crop this year. (last year we got around 900 chill hours, also terrible, and most midland SC growers didn't have a crop for the late season varieties).  

 

So essentially if we get an early March freeze, we will lose the low chill varieties. The high chill varieties  most likely won't be blooming by then, but it won't matter b/c they didn't get enough chilling to set fruit... Double whammy!

This is what I'm afraid of.  I can't disclose this to my wife, the peach lover.

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