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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

Remember when I told you that this system most likely wouldn't be suppressed and that the precip shield would "expand" farther north as we got closer? :) Also, the NE vortex isn't nearly as consolidated and as far SW as it initially looked like (what a shock), which allows the system to not be suppressed...but it also keeps the cold air away.  It also doesn't help that the system moved in faster than it initially looked like.  Even had it come in slower, the cold would still have been marginal.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_10.png

You nailed it CR. A few days back it looked like the cold would be no problem and all we needed was the precip / storm to end up more northward. We got the storm more northward but we now have the above map.  

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1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

You nailed it CR. A few days back it looked like the cold would be no problem and all we needed was the precip / storm to end up more northward. We got the storm more northward but we now have the above map.  

You know the mtns. of nc are very close to getting some snow wednesday evening, this is very close and could trend even colder than it already has.  temps for this time frame keep dropping. 

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1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

And here is your wind map.  Could be a little windy and rainy in CA...just what they don't need with the spillway crisis unfolding there.  Should something similar to this unfold, we'll be looking at a fairly large severe weather outbreak somewhere in the south and east:

gem_uv250_namer_33.png

Thanks WeatherWebber! 

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1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

Winter storm wise, I'm with you. The January storm was nice for my location.

But, it was so warm otherwise that I cannot give it a passing score. If we'd just been average (temp wise) I would have giving it a C- with the one storm.    

Maybe I'll be able to revise my thoughts in the next few weeks, but as of right now it's looking doubtful.

For me this was winter was a B+.  We got snow, 0.5", in January, and other then that it was warm/dry.  Cold/snowy would have been "A" winter but next best is warm/dry.  I have a feeling we are going to have a lot more B+ winters moving forward.

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4 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said:

 

If we keep having winters like this the "Normal" will eventually be 10 degrees warmer.

Yep...come 2020-2021 our new 30 year averages will be out, our seasonal snowfall avg will drop to below 5" by then and these temp departures will be less dramatic depending on how much we warm the next 10-20 years.  

Posted on this yesterday...

 

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4 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Yep...come 2020-2021 our new 30 year averages will be out, our seasonal snowfall avg will drop to below 5" by then and these temp departures will be less dramatic depending on how much we warm the next 10-20 years.  

Posted on this yesterday...

 

Won't it be 2021-2022 ? I think the 30 year averages will be from 1991-2020 so i'm guessing the new averages won't be out until 2021 ?

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7 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Yep...come 2020-2021 our new 30 year averages will be out, our seasonal snowfall avg will drop to below 5" by then and these temp departures will be less dramatic depending on how much we warm the next 10-20 years.  

Posted on this yesterday...

 

Climate patterns run in (long term) cycles and you would have to assume we're due for some colder/snowier times in the near future.  

But of course that's keeping climate change out of the discussion.   

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26 minutes ago, packbacker said:

For me this was winter was a B+.  We got snow, 0.5", in January, and other then that it was warm/dry.  Cold/snowy would have been "A" winter but next best is warm/dry.  I have a feeling we are going to have a lot more B+ winters moving forward.

Hahaha you are so full of it!

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6 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Climate patterns run in (long term) cycles and you would have to assume we're due for some colder/snowier times in the near future.  

But of course that's keeping climate change out of the discussion.   

I really do worry that climate change will make snow literally impossible along the I-20 corridor. Is it just a coincidence that Atlanta has seen little to no snow in 5 out of the last 6 winters ?

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46 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Climate patterns run in (long term) cycles and you would have to assume we're due for some colder/snowier times in the near future.  

But of course that's keeping climate change out of the discussion.   

We will probably see a lull in the warming of the globe sometime in the 2020's but I have doubts we ever go back to where temps were during our snowy times.   But, we will see in about 10-15 years if we have reverted back.  

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6 hours ago, BIG FROSTY said:

 

I still say it will be a late Spring, Meaning March maybe early April will end up below average with lots of cold rains in CAD areas, severe elsewhere in the SE... Then cold shot behind each system just enough to freeze folks fruit crops........  We'll be wishing for it to warm up when it suppose to be warm. So we can catch a carp and play some golf....... lol.  I am a very Disgruntled Snowman this morning, I'm having a Meltdown.........:frostymelt: 

Yep..no doubt we will have an awesome pattern come late March and april. We will all be screaming where was this all winter while the 35 to 40 degree rain pours outside. 

6 hours ago, POWERSTROKE said:

We still made our average so no complaints here.  Yes I will take another but if not crank up the mowers and lets go

As warm as this "winter" has been, I saw snow twice this winter...although both times it was in gainesville. Still, that is better than some years. I sure glad I was lucky enough to be there because if  not for getting that fix, snow withdrawal symptoms would be pretty severe by now...with all this warm weather making it worse. 

Still depressing though when you see what is going on in Maine today..where 2 to 4 inch per hour rates and  3 foot totals possible in some areas.....and this is on the heels of a couple of other systems.  In fact, it's been snowing non stop for 4 days in some areas there. I know its not mysterious as to why but it Just always amazes me how little it takes to get snow up there there while down here there has to be 13448 things line up just right and even then it doesnt work out a good bit of the time. 

The overall lack of cold air in general though over north America and how persistent it's been is alarming though. It blows my mind how widespread the extreme warmth is. 

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You can't help but wonder what the severe weather season will be like as it shapes up here over the next 30 days.  We've obviously had persistent warmth with a near steady stream of fairly vigorous system traversing the gulf coast.  All it's gonna take in this pattern is for the gulf to open up and we could be looking at a pretty consistent severe weather threat through March as systems start to tap into the building warmth.

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21 minutes ago, audioguy3107 said:

You can't help but wonder what the severe weather season will be like as it shapes up here over the next 30 days.  We've obviously had persistent warmth with a near steady stream of fairly vigorous system traversing the gulf coast.  All it's gonna take in this pattern is for the gulf to open up and we could be looking at a pretty consistent severe weather threat through March as systems start to tap into the building warmth.

I believe it will be very non-eventful severe season in the western Carolinas, due to cool and wedging. It can't stay 25-30 degrees above normal for ever! We will get our usual-NAO in mid-March and into April! :(

Now, the gulf coastal areas, or Dixie Alley, might have a rough and early start to the season, if the STJ stays active!

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1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

I believe it will be very non-eventful severe season in the western Carolinas, due to cool and wedging. It can't stay 25-30 degrees above normal for ever! We will get our usual-NAO in mid-March and into April! :(

Now, the gulf coastal areas, or Dixie Alley, might have a rough and early start to the season, if the STJ stays active!

Anyone wanting to see who's getting snow look at Telluride live web cam.

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1 hour ago, Lookout said:

Yep..no doubt we will have an awesome pattern come late March and april. We will all be screaming where was this all winter while the 35 to 40 degree rain pours outside. 

As warm as this "winter" has been, I saw snow twice this winter...although both times it was in gainesville. Still, that is better than some years. I sure glad I was lucky enough to be there because if  not for getting that fix, snow withdrawal symptoms would be pretty severe by now...with all this warm weather making it worse. 

Still depressing though when you see what is going on in Maine today..where 2 to 4 inch per hour rates and  3 foot totals possible in some areas.....and this is on the heels of a couple of other systems.  In fact, it's been snowing non stop for 4 days in some areas there. I know its not mysterious as to why but it Just always amazes me how little it takes to get snow up there there while down here there has to be 13448 things line up just right and even then it doesnt work out a good bit of the time. 

The overall lack of cold air in general though over north America and how persistent it's been is alarming though. It blows my mind how widespread the extreme warmth is. 

Agree 1000% Lookout! It's just astounding to me how warm February has turned out!!!!!!!   I never would've believed it would have been this bad.  Now we got wait at least 9 months of boring weather before we can even dream of a snowflake! Unless you like severe? I don't like it................. I'm winter weather man, that's it!!! 

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1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

I believe it will be very non-eventful severe season in the western Carolinas, due to cool and wedging. It can't stay 25-30 degrees above normal for ever! We will get our usual-NAO in mid-March and into April! :(

Now, the gulf coastal areas, or Dixie Alley, might have a rough and early start to the season, if the STJ stays active!

Right. We will having a raging -NAO with 40 degrees and a heavy cold rain in the middle of April.

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