Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 42 minutes ago, McDowell_Weather said: My biggest concern is how are we going to get our cold air? I dont post much, i just hang back and try to learn. I noticed on the gfs there is a weak hp in the dakotas on the gfs and a pesky lake low. My question is what should we be rooting for. You make the critical point re: cold air. There just isn't much of it. And there's no ideal transport mechanism, i.e. high pressure. So that leaves us with really two options/solutions to root for: 1) We need to HOPE that the southern ULL hangs back until the northern stream HOPEFULLY presses far enough south in order to allow enough marginal cold air to infiltrate the upper SE ahead of the southern ULL, which we HOPE will remain stronger than the models are currently indicating. Lately, the GFS trends have been to speed up the southern ULL. Bad. The trends have also been to weaken the ULL faster. Bad. This one, I believe, is a bias and will correct itself somewhat in time. Also a bias is the strong press of the northern stream at long leads. It usually turns out to be not so strong. For this storm, we need to HOPE that it is strong, but not strong enough to suppress the system into central FL. Should this scenario work out perfectly, as we HOPE, the northern part of the precip shield should be snow, but probably no more than a 2-6" snow, at best. 2) We can HOPE for a phase between the ULL and the northern stream. This would HOPEFULLY allow the storm to strengthen and draw in some cold air on its own. The problem with this solution is while snowfall amounts could be more robust, a phase would likely result in an inland tracking system. With a phase, we're much more likely to get precipitation, but it would likely be rain for most in the SE, outside of maybe the mountains. If we could get a phase such that the storm would track through southern SC and then just off and up the coast, it could be a bigger deal. That would require more HOPE than we have, I think. I just don't see how that's quite possible this time. Anyway, I always say that SE snowstorms are not built on hope. But unfortunately with this system, it seems to be the only ingredient that's increasing as we move in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 GFS = toasty! Slightly N with precip shield! Good times!:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 11 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: You make the critical point re: cold air. There just isn't much of it. And there's no ideal transport mechanism, i.e. high pressure. So that leaves us with really two options/solutions to root for: 1) We need to HOPE that the southern ULL hangs back until the northern stream HOPEFULLY presses far enough south in order to allow enough marginal cold air to infiltrate the upper SE ahead of the southern ULL, which we HOPE will remain stronger than the models are currently indicating. Lately, the GFS trends have been to speed up the southern ULL. Bad. The trends have also been to weaken the ULL faster. Bad. This one, I believe, is a bias and will correct itself somewhat in time. Also a bias is the strong press of the northern stream at long leads. It usually turns out to be not so strong. For this storm, we need to HOPE that it is strong, but not strong enough to suppress the system into central FL. Should this scenario work out perfectly, as we HOPE, the northern part of the precip shield should be snow, but probably no more than a 2-6" snow, at best. 2) We can HOPE for a phase between the ULL and the northern stream. This would HOPEFULLY allow the storm to strengthen and draw in some cold air on its own. The problem with this solution is while snowfall amounts could be more robust, a phase would likely result in an inland tracking system. With a phase, we're much more likely to get precipitation, but it would likely be rain for most in the SE, outside of maybe the mountains. If we could get a phase such that the storm would track through southern SC and then just off and up the coast, it could be a bigger deal. That would require more HOPE than we have, I think. I just don't see how that's quite possible this time. Anyway, I always say that SE snowstorms are not built on hope. But unfortunately with this system, it seems to be the only ingredient that's increasing as we move in. Thanks CR i always appreciate your input. I understand what your saying theres alot of variables at play that need to line up almost perfectly. I got 9in out of the last storm im good with that. Id like to see the people down east and south score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 11 minutes ago, McDowell_Weather said: Thanks CR i always appreciate your input. I understand what your saying theres alot of variables at play that need to line up almost perfectly. I got 9in out of the last storm im good with that. Id like to see the people down east and south score. No problem! Yeah, this one seems to be slipping away. Sometimes you get situations like this where the eye of the needle is pretty small. Other times, it's larger. But every case in the SE, it's still a needle lol! The enormous elephant in the room this year has been the lack of cold air. We've been dealing with micro needles all winter long. Glad you guys cashed in one time. There's still a chance for us south and east, but it's going to take a lot of work, and the clock is ticking.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Cold air source is MIA. Feb is cooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wow said: Cold air source is MIA. Feb is cooked. Yep. If you look at the GEFS and GEPS, they eventually bring the coldest air in the NH over to our side of the globe, but it can't seem to make any headway far enough south to turn us cold. The pattern just repeatedly blows chunks this year. And we're almost out of time to fix it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Man the 12z GFS is so close. Cold air is established or getting established, low pressure crosses north Florida, but it then scoots eastward out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 the 12z cmc almost looks like a tropical system coming from the south of the gulf due north east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 UKIE is further north and a stronger low,1000 low just south of Columbus.GA at 96.Probably a bit too warm here but close, ends up as a bomb in the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 the gfs is till showing something around the 26th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Seems like models are moving toward the Euro bomb idea! Awesome! Congrats NE states! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 48 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Seems like models are moving toward the Euro bomb idea! Awesome! Congrats NE states! Severe looks promising...we got that to look forward to. Nothing like thunder/lightening in Feb when it's 70F outside. RDU's 30 year snowfall avg has dropped to an all time low of 5.17". If we go under 3" next winter, which is almost a given at this point, we will drop below 5"...LOL. Doesn't matter, because it will drop below 5" the following winter as we would need over 15" snow combined over next two winters. We haven't had that type of back to back winters in 15 years. our 30 year average is quickly approaching what Columbia to Atlanta averages. We better get used to these winters where we track severe. Feels great outside...off to mow the lawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 One more...phase 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Pack, we'll have some kind of wedge feature to mess up severe. But don't worry...all the severe storms to our south will interrupt our moisture transport. Prepare for 50s and light rain showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 20 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Pack, we'll have some kind of wedge feature to mess up severe. But don't worry...all the severe storms to our south will interrupt our moisture transport. Prepare for 50s and light rain showers. Lol! Negative Nelly! I'm joining the severe nerds! I think they're cooler than snow weenies ! Me and Andyhb! Besties! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 18z GFS is such a troll sometimes...back that nw low west a hair, a little stronger southern low and Mack's posting days would be over.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Better sampling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 I am cool extrapolating the 18z NAM past 84hrs, clearly in its wheelhouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 2 hours ago, packbacker said: 18z GFS is such a troll sometimes...back that nw low west a hair, a little stronger southern low and Mack's posting days would be over.... I mentioned the NAM in my post above, it is still closed off sub 558dm in TX day 3.5. Similar to the GFS in that it leaves energy back in the SW, but it does have a small vort in the central plains and that is what we really need along with enough separation between the vortex over SE Canada. Looking at the H5 graphic you posted there are more things wrong then right for a surface low amplifying out of the Gulf or off the SE Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 43 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Better sampling? It's a malfunction due to the heat! Hit 74 today, staring down the barrel of 80 tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 48 minutes ago, packbacker said: 18z GFS is such a troll sometimes...back that nw low west a hair, a little stronger southern low and Mack's posting days would be over.... Bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Uh oh, JMA is farther N, but ends up farther off the NE coast than yesterday! On 24 hour panels! Looks colder, but after storm has passed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 German model only goes out 72 hours but looks warmer than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 23 hours ago, Cold Rain said: Haha +1! That's a hard rating to get! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 46 minutes ago, ajr said: German model only goes out 72 hours but looks warmer than the GFS Not so fast, look back in TX!! It's making its own cold air!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Not so fast, look back in TX!! It's making its own cold air!! Attendant cold pool in the wake of the ULL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Damn, NAVGEM is juicy, but tracks low over Savannah, then offshore! But all rain, too warm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Welp, another one down. Looks like Cosgrove has finally thrown in the towel: The chances for meaningful winter storms and cold intrusions in the U.S. looks to decline markedly after February 17. Numerical models are in general agreement now on either a split flow (characteristic of El Nino episodes) or a semizonal flow with embedded storms. But either way, there is no mechanism to bring cold air from Canada into the U.S. So the "winter cancel" birds should be chirping loudly and constantly, correct?It just is not that simple. Analog forecasts, which have called the recent Great Lakes/Northeast storms quite well, and the weekly prediction series of the CFS and ECMWF models are hinting at a "one last chance" set-up east of the Rocky Mountains. I suspect this works in tandem with El Nino climatology, since most of the schemes seem to be predicting a decidedly positive ENSO episode this spring and summer. But having seen how these very same equations have botched Pacific Basin SST temperature outlooks (evidence the neutral signature in sector 3.4), I am very wary of accepting a colder outline in early to middle March. More than likely the warmer pattern will stick around through the end of February. And it is possible that a cold intrusion or two may sweep through the Midwest and Eastern Seaboard before March 15.But before you embrace any chances for lasting cold, think about how January and February have progressed. Record warmth has been a constant in the south central U.S., and Arctic blasts never last more than 48 hours before either giving way to warmer values or being replaced by other transient cold pools. On the idea that we have a neutral/positive ENSO environment, I strongly suspect that our concerns for severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall from TX and OK through the Old South and Mid-Atlantic states will be growing. With that alignment, a stable but relatively mild temperature array will occupy the northern half of the country.Bottom line: most of what I see out there calls for springlike weather in the last week of February and first two weeks of March. But perhaps I could be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Using some estimates for temperatures for the rest of February, I estimate that this will be the 6th warmest Dec-Feb period on record in Charlotte, with data back to 1879. Related snow stats: of the top 30 warmest Dec-Feb periods in Charlotte, only 1 had double digit snowfall. Of the top 30 coldest Dec-Feb periods in Charlotte, 13 had double digit snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 hour ago, griteater said: Using some estimates for temperatures for the rest of February, I estimate that this will be the 6th warmest Dec-Feb period on record in Charlotte, with data back to 1879. Related snow stats: of the top 30 warmest Dec-Feb periods in Charlotte, only 1 had double digit snowfall. Of the top 30 coldest Dec-Feb periods in Charlotte, 13 had double digit snowfall. 4 of the top 7 warmest of all time, were Ninas! No surprise this winter was so warm and sucktastic ! heres to a weak Nino next winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.