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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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9 minutes ago, ajr said:

Re: phasing for this event, it seems the northern and southern stream are awfully close. Would that help or hurt us if they came together?

 

 

gfs_z500_vort_namer_fh144-150.gif

IMHO - depends on how south you are - personally where I'd like to see them get married would require a Spanish Mass

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Feb 2015 had buried cutoff with PV low over the lakes.   GFS was suppressed until inside day 4.   Euro/UK caught on quicker.   Feb 2015 had more cold air, better ridge placement, +NAO which argued for non supression.   This day 5-6 potential has a progressive PAC ridge, -NAO, strong 50/50 which all argues for something off the coast.   Will be interested to see UK because I expect GFS to be wide right.

 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_5.png

 

Screen Shot 2015-02-21 at 3.46.36 PM.png

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

Dud = continued posting!! But the next storm on the 20th = $$$$, if you are a severe wx geek! (Packs converting)

I think we can hang this winter up, I've been holding off for at least a fantasy snow storm and we can't even get that plus it seems to always get warm right after a little cold snap, we just can't seem to get a chance for a snow storm kick started.

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22 minutes ago, fritschy said:

I think we can hang this winter up, I've been holding off for at least a fantasy snow storm and we can't even get that plus it seems to always get warm right after a little cold snap, we just can't seem to get a chance for a snow storm kick started.

Don't lose hope!! The 26th storm is $$$$$$$$$! Don't worry about temps now, storm looks great! I don't lose hope until the GFS quits spitting out fantasy storms! We legitimately have 40 days left of snow chances! Give up on April 1!! :)

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2 hours ago, fritschy said:

I think we can hang this winter up, I've been holding off for at least a fantasy snow storm and we can't even get that plus it seems to always get warm right after a little cold snap, we just can't seem to get a chance for a snow storm kick started.

Fairly obvious after the 2-3 day cold shot next week we are going to be extremely warm to finish out Feb into March.  Maybe another 1-2 day cold front that will be quickly driven out.  Over/under on first 80F+ day for RDu is March 10th...we have a chance tomorrow but right now looking like mid/upper 70's.

gem-ens_T2maMean_us_12.png

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_12.png

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4 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Fairly obvious after the 2-3 day cold shot next week we are going to be extremely warm to finish out Feb into March.  Maybe another 1-2 day cold front that will be quickly driven out.  Over/under on first 80F+ day for RDu is March 10th...we have a chance tomorrow but right now looking like mid/upper 70's.

gem-ens_T2maMean_us_12.png

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_12.png

Who cares? I'll need the torch to melt my snowman from this Thursday 

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