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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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8 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

What's the best phase for surface temps?  You'd think with that upper air map, surface temps would look better.

Per the MJO composites on Allan's site...ph8/nino is what we want.  Not taking into account enso weaker ph8 and ph3 looks to be coldest.  Phase 1 is AN in non-nino winter. 

I saw JB tweeting about Feb/Ph8 and cold but he picked 88/2010 which were both nino winters...:facepalm:

 

Screen Shot 2017-02-08 at 12.26.52 PM.png

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27 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

That's crazy that our cut off dates are so different. My cut off date is Feb 15th. I honestly don't recall seeing any significant snow past Feb 15th since 1993. The latest snowfall I recall since then was in February 2010.

So, some quick math on that.

Accumulating snow in SC since 1955 = 7 dates with 2.42 avg.

Most happening first week of March

3 of those in the first week of March 1960

only 2 events after the 10th of March

03/25/1971 = 2.0

03/24/1983 = 2.0

http://www.weather.gov/ilm/FLOsnowfallDatabase

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10 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Looks like ph8....starting to think Ph8 doesn't solve all our problems.

Curse you JB!:P

 

 

 

 

Wow that's amazing...great H5 pattern just like the phase 8 analog.  But nope, no cold air.  We're so bad, we don't even understand how we fail! We just do...:wacko:

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2 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Per the MJO composites on Allan's site...ph8/nino is what we want.  Not taking into account enso weaker ph8 and ph3 looks to be coldest.  Phase 1 is AN in non-nino winter. 

I saw JB tweeting about Feb/Ph8 and cold but he picked 88/2010 which were both nino winters...:facepalm:

 

Screen Shot 2017-02-08 at 12.26.52 PM.png

Gotcha.  Yeah, that is a facepalm.

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21 minutes ago, frazdaddy said:

So, some quick math on that.

Accumulating snow in SC since 1955 = 7 dates with 2.42 avg.

Most happening first week of March

3 of those in the first week of March 1960

only 2 events after the 10th of March

03/25/1971 = 2.0

03/24/1983 = 2.0

http://www.weather.gov/ilm/FLOsnowfallDatabase

March 1 , 2009, gave me 8" imby, but about half or less at GSP 

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37 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Painful looking at this pattern upcoming...we have a +PNA/-EPO/-AO/-NAO with a nice 50/50 and these are the temps.

850t_anom.na.png

 

Lol, you picked the warmest panel between the colder periods of basically 250 and 350.

Here's the map at 222:

gfs-ens_T850a_us_38.png

 

Then at 240:

gfs-ens_T850a_us_41.png

 

Then, we get a transient warm-up, which you showed.

Then we get this at 354:

gfs-ens_T850a_us_60.png

 

And at 384:

gfs-ens_T850a_us_65.png

 

With this upper air pattern:

gfs-ens_z500_mslp_nhem_65.png

 

It's still not a snowstorm pattern.  But at least with a few minor tweaks, we'd have a shot at something to close out the season.

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9 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Lol, you picked the warmest panel between the colder periods of basically 250 and 350.

Here's the map at 222:

 

 

Then at 240:

 

 

Then, we get a transient warm-up, which you showed.

Then we get this at 354:

 

 

And at 384:

 

 

With this upper air pattern:

 

 

It's still not a snowstorm pattern.  But at least with a few minor tweaks, we'd have a shot at something to close out the season.

LOL...I swear I didn't hunt and find the warmest panel, I just happen to check pivotal at that hour and those were the temps.  Warmth just finds me...:maphot:

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1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

Got tired of posting cold and great indicies pretty quickly!? Back to your Glenn Burns wamathon posts

I don't discriminate...equal opportunity between warmth/cold.   Not sure how there are any cold posts, we have been super warm the past 4+ weeks. 

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14 minutes ago, jburns said:

Cold Rain said in an earlier post.

 "This isn't a winter storm pattern yet, but the evolution is what you want to see."

 

I disagree. We are quickly running out of time for evolution. We need some good old fashioned creation.

Yep, 384 panels are only going to suffice so long!

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2 hours ago, jburns said:

Cold Rain said in an earlier post.

 "This isn't a winter storm pattern yet, but the evolution is what you want to see."

 

I disagree. We are quickly running out of time for evolution. We need some good old fashioned creation.

You are right. Outside of the mountains time is running out quickly. 

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8 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

I don't know what it is about February but I swear the Northeast and Mid Atlantic tend to get their heaviest snows this month.

I would guess they have had more 10" events since 2010 (8 years) then any other 8 year stretch.  Golden age of snow for them right now.  

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