Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 10.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

On the other board, the 18z was the best look all winter on the GFS , even with no snow!? What am I missing!

 

59 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

A fifth of bourbon maybe?

The last thing we want to see on the models the next few days is a big snowstorm for the SE...because you know it won't happen.  Need models all over the places until inside day 5. 

Starting to lose some steam on this winter...4+ weeks of +10F temp anomalies after the biggest snow bust makes you want to tap out.  It feels really good outside, starting to get that itch for spring, actually had to flip the AC on today.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, packbacker said:

 

The last thing we want to see on the models the next few days is a big snowstorm for the SE...because you know it won't happen.  Need models all over the places until inside day 5. 

Starting to lose some steam on this winter...4+ weeks of +10F temp anomalies after the biggest snow bust makes you want to tap out.  It feels really good outside, starting to get that itch for spring, actually had to flip the AC on today.  

Agree with this 100%.  I still think we have a couple of shots left, but man what a miserable winter so far south and east of roughly Asheboro to Burlington.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

06Z GFS getting closer to what we want to see on the Feb 16th system, hr 198 is close to being snow for a lot of NC, 850's are cold enough and the surface is upper 30's....more suppressed low track is what we want to see.

Just noticed the 0 degree 850s in NC! Surface sucks, as you said! But that was a nice shift south, and there are some very cold temps/850s, just to our North! Wouldn't take much to get something nice, especially for NC!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Just noticed the 0 degree 850s in NC! Surface sucks, as you said! But that was a nice shift south, and there are some very cold temps/850s, just to our North! Wouldn't take much to get something nice, especially for NC!

yeah best run in a while.....gotta hope it stays suppressed and that the NW side is wetter than modeled but it usually is, if that happens then the cold will work itself out...its 8 days out and gonna change every run though for several moe days at least lol.....the run ended with another threat as well...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, griteater said:

Every 5 day avg from day 5 to day 15 has above normal temps on the EPS.  Day 10-15...

5CS0xBo.gif

Thanks, Grit.  That looks horrible on it's face.  But what is it trending toward?  That's the question.  There are still some quite encouraging signals showing on the 0Z and 6Z GEFS and 0Z GEPS.  I'm about to make a post on it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's hard to see how we get any snow before the last week in February with the kind of transient pattern in place and general lack of cold air.  But looking at the model trends, particularly the GEFS and GEPS, and particularly toward the end of their runs, hope continues to linger.  You can take a snapshot of any operational or ensemble run and show what looks like a torch or an arctic outbreak.  Personally, I like to look at the trends, along with what else is supposed to be happening in the atmosphere (and how that's worked out historically) in order to try to figure out where we might go.

So far this season, the trend has been for short duration cold and longer duration warmth.  However, we are moving into a different stage of the season.  In addition to that, we have an anomalously strong MJO pulse, moving into a favorable phase as well as a disturbed strat vortex.  That argues against warmth as much as the persistence of the season argues for warmth.  So what do the ensembles show?

Well, both the Canadian (first) and American (second) LR panels show a fairly similar pattern.  Take a look:

You can see a distinct signal for an Aleutian low.  This feature, if it can remain stable for a time, will help to pump up heights in the EPO region and promote cross-polar flow.  You sort of see that in the snapshot below.  You can also see a split flow developing out in the eastern Pacific.  Both of these features are good and will act to slow the Pacific jet, which has been responsible for flooding the US with mild air all winter.  Ridging up toward the pole allows the flow to turn out of the arctic and be directed into the eastern US.  As a result, you will see lower heights build in Canada.  You can't see it from this snapshot (and I can't create an animation from my flip phone), but I drew an arrow, indicating where the lower heights migrate to over the last few frames of the run.  This isn't a winter storm pattern yet, but the evolution is what you want to see.

gem-ens_z500_mslp_nhem_65.png

 

The GEFS looks even better.  Notice how you have agreement in the general placement of features with the GEPS.  Aleutian low?  Check.  Split flow?  Check.  Cross-polar flow?  Big time check.  Lowering heights in eastern Canada?  Check.  If you want snow at the end of February and into March, this is the kind of pattern you want to see develop.  Given the strong MJO pulse and its location, and given the favorable disruption of the stratosphere, I'm inclined to lean toward getting a period of fairly cold and stormy weather near the end of the month and on into March.  Could all of this be wrong?  Certainly.  The persistence of the warm pattern so far has been something to behold.  But as long as there are straws on the table, we might as well grasp all we can.  We only have about a month of chasing until next Winter, and we don't quit on the home stretch!

gfs-ens_z500_mslp_nhem_65.png

 

Here's your daily index update (I don't agree with the AO coming back, given the ensemble trends and the strat stuff -- I think the model is bringing it back up too quickly).  The PNA should stay generally positive for a good while.  The EPO (not shown) should turn negative.  The NAO is a lost cause.  The MJO looks great.  Good day.

AO.jpg

 

MJO.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thanks guys.  LOL ^ Webber would probably come in and tell me how perfectly wrong I have it!  I like the trends we're seeing way out there.  We just have to hope they hold and don't get pushed out.  I always say that hope doesn't create a SE snowstorm, but it's about all we have left at this point!  And I agree with Falls about the -EPO.  We need it...and we need some blocking to go with it. :(

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...