mackerel_sky Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: I was just thinking to myself life would be better in the winter if we lived in a locale that had minimal chance of snow...well do I really have to say it. One day, we will have a winter that rivals or surpasses 09-10, and those 77/78 winters!! We may all be dust , but it will happen again! Keep hope alive! Come on 17z GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 1 hour ago, packbacker said: Two batches of analogs for next winter (+enso/+qbo). Of course if we don't develop a Nino it will be a repeat of this winter. Which analog set we going with... I would toss the first one to be honest. Those 90s el Ninos behaved oddly as we discussed here a bit 2 weeks back. 94-95 was partly a product of a record cold stratosphere I believe and a raging +NAO/AO. I would feel pretty good right now about next winter if I lived in the southeast assuming the El Niño develops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 12 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: One day, we will have a winter that rivals or surpasses 09-10, and those 77/78 winters!! We may all be dust , but it will happen again! Keep hope alive! Come on 17z GFS! I don't know...been 13 years since RDU's last 10"+ season, previous drought was 7 years and that only happened a couple of times in 130+ years. Climate change sucks. Could be worse problems...just snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 19 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I would toss the first one to be honest. Those 90s el Ninos behaved oddly as we discussed here a bit 2 weeks back. 94-95 was partly a product of a record cold stratosphere I believe and a raging +NAO/AO. I would feel pretty good right now about next winter if I lived in the southeast assuming the El Niño develops I think it will depend entirely on where the warmest water sets up. If right off and connecting to S. America, go with door #1, if west in the 3.4 region, select door #2. Of course there will be other factors in the teleconnections which will help determine the intensity of the warm or cold outcome, but the basic tenor will be set by location of warmest waters (as well as the relative strength of the Nino) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, MichaelJ said: I think it will depend entirely on where the warmest water sets up. If right off and connecting to S. America, go with door #1, if west in the 3.4 region, select door #2. Of course there will be other factors in the teleconnections which will help determine the intensity of the warm or cold outcome, but the basic tenor will be set by location of warmest waters 15 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I would toss the first one to be honest. Those 90s el Ninos behaved oddly as we discussed here a bit 2 weeks back. 94-95 was partly a product of a record cold stratosphere I believe and a raging +NAO/AO. I would feel pretty good right now about next winter if I lived in the southeast assuming the El Niño develops Was thinking more of a mod+ nino being better but there are other SST differences that stick out too. Still not sure we will even have a nino, but we shall see. Pretty rare to go from a super nino to weak nina then back to a nino. Thought we would see a multi year nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Whatever ENSO state exists, you can rest assured that the QBO will be in the wrong direction at an extreme magnitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: Was thinking more of a mod+ nino being better but there are other SST differences that stick out too. Still not sure we will even have a nino, but we shall see. Pretty rare to go from a super nino to weak nina then back to a nino. Thought we would see a multi year nina. If ninas suck this bad,I never want to see another one! And if drought and heat in the summer , is another calling card, screw that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Monster 1031 high dropping into MT, behind what will be the big cutter bomb, that will bring us our non storm on Friday!??!! Hard to imagine suppression with that beast!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: Monster 1031 high dropping into MT, behind what will be the big cutter bomb, that will bring us our non storm on Friday!??!! Hard to imagine suppression with that beast!? It strengthens in the next few panels. Follow the confluence! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: If ninas suck this bad,I never want to see another one! And if drought and heat in the summer , is another calling card, screw that! Well, atleast for RDU, since 96 we have had 10 snowy winters. 6 have been nina's and 4 have been nino's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: It strengthens in the next few panels. Follow the confluence! I miss Brick! How much for Raleigh!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 I had some minor issues with my account (got 24hr banned on accident lol, no worries, it's figured out now) but then 10th seems like a dud at this point. The models have gone away from the tall west coast ridging and instead moving towards a more eastern ridge...this doesn't allow the tail end of the energy to develop a shortwave and dig, but instead shears out and suppresses any moisture that forms. The ridge is progressing to a flatter, more eastern orientation...nothing but cold from that. The models won't find this storm again if the ridge isn't in the proper orientation - simple as that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Jon said: I had some minor issues with my account (got 24hr banned on accident lol, no worries, it's figured out now) but then 10th seems like a dud at this point. The models have gone away from the tall west coast ridging and instead moving towards a more eastern ridge...this doesn't allow the tail end of the energy to develop a shortwave and dig, but instead shears out and suppresses any moisture that forms. The ridge is progressing to a flatter, more eastern orientation...nothing but cold from that. The models won't find this storm again if the ridge isn't in the proper orientation - simple as that. Is winter over, in your opinion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Impressive overnight lows...summertime lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Just now, packbacker said: Impressive overnight lows...summertime lows. Severe weather and severe storms, snow within 10 days! Your daily Brick nugget! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Severe weather and severe storms, snow within 10 days! Your daily Brick nugget! Wedge won't allow severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 at 138 still showing. squashed at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernUpstateSC Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 56 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I think it would suck to live anywhere where there is no chance of snow, like Florida! I may as well live in Florida as sucktastic as winters can and are here! But atleast there's a chance! Not sure it would be fun to live in a slam dunk snow place like Maine, but I'd be willing to give the latter a chance, if given the opportunity! Mack, got a good friend that lives just outside Brunswick maine and he has complained all season so far about the serious lack of snow for them. He is used to snow to start falling in october and still be getting snow sometimes into mid and late april. Hasn't hardly used the old snowblower at all this year he said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 QBO may be hurting this winter...but if you compare the most recent +QBO nina's v/s the -QBO nina's it's opposite of what we are seeing this winter. We have bigger problems this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 26 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I miss Brick! How much for Raleigh!? Where is brick? I haven't seen him on here in a good while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 2 hours ago, rowjimmy73 said: as long as it doesnt get as hot as Gommorah i think we are ok lol.... Gotcha - But I Need A Miracle --- Everyday - and all associated words about twice my height .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Where is brick? I haven't seen him on here in a good while. He has new friends and calls another place home now! and they cut internet time at his work! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 29 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Impressive overnight lows...summertime lows. Where - W VA? If I'm under 78º from June - Sept, it's a T'storm .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: He has new friends and calls another place home now! and they cut internet time at his work! Lol lol........ This looks good for fishing anyway!!! New euro weeklies are a blow torch Look at whats predicted for February 20th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 The 18z GFS at day 10 looks like it may have a colder solution for the LR. Edit: well not really but there is more cold air hanging around in east Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Is winter over, in your opinion?Nope. I'm somewhat excited about potential mid month, as long as the west coast ridging holds on the ensembles. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 I don't know what to think of the day 6 potential...subtle changes the past 24 hours. But, it's the only game in town.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 13 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: lol........ This looks good for fishing anyway!!! New euro weeklies are a blow torch Look at whats predicted for February 20th Just saying ,and the maps may be correct, but look at times the maps show one thing then when the time gets here it's completely different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said: Just saying ,and the maps may be correct, but look at times the maps show one thing then when the time gets here it's completely different. I agree, they not been all that good lately. But the way this winter has been, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they turn out correct.... lol I got this off of FB some Met posted it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 I am sure this won't verify but this would be fun... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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