BIG FROSTY Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Eric has been good so far this winter, if he's right about feb, we can all go to bed now and watch for Thunderstorms soon!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 850s and surface temps colder for Friday, some light snow ~ I-40 in NC. Maybe GFS will show some love, not holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 540 line holding near I-40 @ 66, Mid 30s for good chunk of NC and SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 In 72 hours(I think?) We went from a gulf low on the 6th to maybe a passing shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 FWIW, 0z GFS is a colder than 18z, much colder in the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Another GFS run, another solution. Major changes in overall pattern at 5h and vort...much more of a ridge at 174 hours, not sure if it's going to allow anything to really dig, a little too south. Anything that does will likely be northern stream dominated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 968mb low in the lakes at 192...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 While everyone is watching for next week I'm quite interested in the event for Friday. The NAM has been trending colder/wetter and the GFS has too. QPF ranges in the .1-.3 range on the NAM and if we can get surface temps near freezing could see a slushy 1-2" across parts of NC Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 1 minute ago, snowlover91 said: While everyone is watching for next week I'm quite interested in the event for Friday. The NAM has been trending colder/wetter and the GFS has too. QPF ranges in the .1-.3 range on the NAM and if we can get surface temps near freezing could see a slushy 1-2" across parts of NC Friday. I can see an I-40 special, once we get less than 60 hours out, we should be in NAMs wheelhouse. Hopefully a good surprise, unlike the crap we've been dealt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 We can probably all agree this isn't going to happen... nice little 6 contour ULL over the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 When looking at this snow anomaly map I actually feel lucky with the 0.5" I did get. Dreadful snow in the plains/east this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 8 minutes ago, JoshM said: I can see an I-40 special, once we get less than 60 hours out, we should be in NAMs wheelhouse. Hopefully a good surprise, unlike the crap we've been dealt. We are pretty close to getting in it's range, start of event is about 57 hours out according to NAM and it's been trending colder each run at 850 and the surface. Need this to continue and we might have a nice little snow Friday to talk about. It needs to come in before daybreak though for a chance at snow, if it waits till the afternoon then surface temps will be too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 4k NAM kicking those temps close to freezing during the bulk of the precip Friday PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 35 minutes ago, JoshM said: 4k NAM kicking those temps close to freezing during the bulk of the precip Friday PM. RAH thinks the best shot of wintery precip would be freezing rain. But they are doubtful, at this time, that enough precip will fall to wet bulb down to freezing. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 350 AM Wednesday... A weak disturbances may help activate the low level front zone expected to be just to the south of central NC on Friday morning, which may lead to some light rain on Friday. The latest GFS has trended a bit colder for Friday morning, with wet bulb temps in the mid to upper 20s across northern portions of the area on Friday morning. However, the main parent surface high is expected to be in the North Plains on Friday. This is an unfavorable locations to deliver enough cold/dry air at the surface to produce any winter precip. If any winter precip were to occur it appears it would mostlikely be in the form of freezing rain, as the latest models soundings struggle to show saturation reaching -10 Celsius. With that said, precip looks to be very light given the lack of any goodmoisture transport in the mid level westerly flow aloft. Thus, it may be hard to even wet bulb if any precip even were to fall. Thus, will continue to keep the forecast in the form of plain rain. High temps on Friday will be greatly affected by how much precip we see. For now, will go with high temps in the lower 40s north to the mid to upper 40s south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Euro with at least a colder looking run last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Indices looking good: PNA - Continues to show positive from now to LR AO - Continues to show a dive into negative territory in the short to LR NAO - Continues to show positive through the mid range but now maybe a drop into (slightly) negative territory in the LR http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml **but as others have mentioned the EPO looks to go positive in the LR (bad). Not sure how this all mixes together.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Surprised I don't see any posts about the EPS, you would think with this look there would be some members showing snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 8 minutes ago, packbacker said: Surprised I don't see any posts about the EPS, you would think with this look there would be some members showing snow. Models are so volatile around this time period it's ridiculous. We definitely can work with the latest euro, 1040ish HP diving down then sliding due east...tall ridge out west, we can find the low later with all the activity from the pacific. Much better run even though we don't have snow in our backyard, I can work with this...then again it will change at 12z. I'm keeping my eye on the low that pops off the pacific and bombs near the lakes, depending on the trajectory of that and strength/how deep it gets will depend on if we get a HP we can work with, or a HP diving due SE that essentially overwhelms the area with dry cold. I'm sure we'll get fireworks at some point and hope we can hang onto them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 48 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Indices looking good: PNA - Continues to show positive from now to LR AO - Continues to show a dive into negative territory in the short to LR NAO - Continues to show positive through the mid range but now maybe a drop into (slightly) negative territory in the LR http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml **but as others have mentioned the EPO looks to go positive in the LR (bad). Not sure how this all mixes together.. Normal to slightly below normal east with marginal snow chances at best, if the ensembles are correct. Here's the basic GEFS progression, below, from the 6z run. The 0z GEPS is slightly worse. No idea on the EPS, but I assume it's not great. Red lines indicate general positives for us, and black lines indicate poor feature placement: 96 hr. The recurring Omega ridge out west, while helping to build cold air in Canada, stretches the flow back to the west, so we do not have a direct arctic feed coming into the CONUS, given the lack of high latitude blocking and a +NAO. No PNA help either. 192 hr. We have a +PNA now, which puts a trough in the east. Good. UNFORTUNATELY, the AK block has moved to Siberia, and we have a big low near the tip of Greenland. +EPO is all but gone and the NAO is still positive. The PV has moved north and west. 240 hr. The Siberian block is still present, but fading. It has stretched the PV, which is continuing to leave our side of the globe. We have essentially an onshore flow into the CONUS, bringing cool Pacific air, with the only positive being a trough in the east. No help in the form of a PNA or a -NAO either. 300 hr. The coldest anomalies now sit north of AK. We do have a +PNA, which yields a trough in the east. But we still have no help from the EPO or from high latitude blocking. There is nothing to drive cold air into the region. 384 hr. Coldest air continuing to leave Canada. We still have a +PNA and an eastern trough. This is clearly not a mild pattern, but it's not all that cold either. This progression, if the ensembles are correct, does not represent one that would result in a wintry pattern in the SE. That is not to say that we can't get lucky. But cold is marginal, highs are weak, and systems will have no trouble cutting. If this plays out, it will take another couple of weeks to potentially get into a better pattern. The good news is that the MJO is progged to go strongly into Phase 8. This is a favorable phase for Feb. But if there's no cold air to work with, it may end up underperforming: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 ^^Great explanation CR. Seems like, most of the times, when we get a good pattern the cold is lacking. In the last few years, we haven't had many true arctic plunges (Siberian origin) into the southeast. Sometimes the cold that North America generates is good enough, but the farther into February we get the harder that will get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 5 minutes ago, FallsLake said: ^^Great explanation CR. Seems like, most of the times, when we get a good pattern the cold is lacking. In the last few years, we haven't had many true arctic plunges (Siberian origin) into the southeast. Sometimes the cold that North America generates is good enough, but the farther into February we get the harder that will get. Thank you sir. I agree with you that we don't need Siberian air down this way to get a good winter storm. But I'd sure like to see it in a position to be tapped by a nice, strong, well-placed high pressure, as opposed to this (I mean, our source regions are just baking!): We're saved from torching by a western ridge/eastern trough. But this doesn't look winterish to me. Where was the +PNA a couple of weeks ago, when it could have been really useful?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 ^Agreed. +EPO and +NAO (even with a +PNA) is going to leave us cool at best, not cold IMO. I have no expectations until at least one of those indices flip. Probably not going to happen till March, and I hate March storms even when they do show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Thank you sir. I agree with you that we don't need Siberian air down this way to get a good winter storm. But I'd sure like to see it in a position to be tapped by a nice, strong, well-placed high pressure, as opposed to this (I mean, our source regions are just baking!): We're saved by a western ridge/eastern trough. But this doesn't look winterish to me. Where was the +PNA a couple of weeks ago, when it could have been really useful?? Yep, 2m temps look similar; which is still only marginal (at best) for wintery precip. 38 and rain is still below normal temps for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: Yep, 2m temps look similar; which is still only marginal (at best) for wintery precip. 38 and rain is still below normal temps for us. 38 and rain is the modern day SE winter storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 How is the 2nd half of February going to be fab, with all the cold on the other side of the world!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 FWIW the 12Z NAM has no snow now for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 14 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: How is the 2nd half of February going to be fab, with all the cold on the other side of the world!? Great question. Hopefully, the models are wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 30 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: FWIW the 12Z NAM has no snow now for Friday. 12z GFS may be showing northern NC a little love at hour 48. Need to see hour 54 to be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 12z GFS hour 54: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 In the So What Have We Learned Here? thread, we learned to go with the warmest model. Maybe the NAM will cool down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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