Cold Rain Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 The Super Bowl low is way too slow getting in. The Super Bowl high is way too fast moving out. Typical winter storm miss on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 GFS isn't far off from a significant ice storm for February 5-6th. The dewpoints are in the low to mid teens with a decent HP feeding cold, dry air as the system moves in. A lot of areas see rain simply because the GFS is terrible with wedges this far out and because the precip arrives at peak heating. The signal is there for a pretty big ice event if it arrives a little bit earlier to lock in the wedge. Good trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 I like the CMC in wedge situations at this range. Will be interesting to see what it has to say soon, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Much more cold air on the map for the second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: GFS isn't far off from a significant ice storm for February 5-6th. The dewpoints are in the low to mid teens with a decent HP feeding cold, dry air as the system moves in. A lot of areas see rain simply because the GFS is terrible with wedges this far out and because the precip arrives at peak heating. The signal is there for a pretty big ice event if it arrives a little bit earlier to lock in the wedge. Good trends. The storms often arrive faster than modeled by 6-12 hours, 95% of the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Better run of the GFS. In the coming days we could see the high modeled better for the CAD. Dew points are very low before the storm comes in. In past years this has been crucial in how the storms have ultimately performed; whereas CAD has trended stronger (even with in-situ) as we approach go time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 cold air rushing down from Canada it looks like on the 7th with a low in south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: The storms often arrive faster than modeled by 6-12 hours, 95% of the time And CAD is the one thing that tends to work better for us as we get closer to the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 really nice low run but no snow ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Geez. Absolute paste bomb here at hour 216 on the GFS. Plasters foothills and mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 As far as track goes perfect miller A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 there has to be more cold on the back side then it showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: really nice low run but no snow ? I'm no expert, but I think the placement of that great lakes low is an issue on this run compared to the 18z version that gave us a more widespread winter storm from yesterday. Also, the high doesn't hang on long enough over PA/NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 FWIW ill take this look 9 days out over the 6z every time 6z top vs 12z bottom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Cary_Snow95 said: FWIW ill take this look 9 days out over the 6z every time 6z top vs 12z bottom hope the trend to colder keeps happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, SouthWake33 said: I'm no expert, but I think the placement of that great lakes low is an issue on this run compared to the 18z version that gave us a more widespread winter storm from yesterday. Also, the high doesn't hang on long enough over PA/NY. That high retreats entirely too quicky. Over central US at 1032mb, 12 hours later weaker over the NE.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, Jon said: That high retreats entirely too quicky. Over central US at 1032mb, 12 hours later weaker over the NE.... If only we had some blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 cmc looks totally different no low in south at 210 its in Canada with rain in the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 13 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: cmc looks totally different no low in south at 210 its in Canada with rain in the south Disegarding specifics for that particular storm, this run is actually really good. The west coast ridge connects to the AK ridging on 2/8, tons of more confluence/cold in Canada this run, to work with... that low in the lakes isn't our storm, it's actually a 995mb low that breaks off of the feature on the coast of Washington State, breaking off Day 7 and heading to the lakes. That's completely bogus as the low track kinda phases with our low...I buy some kind of break off from the washington state feature, but if you look at the 500mb height anomalies from last run compared to the current, lots has changed in the PAC.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Here's the ice map from wave 1: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Even if none of these storm threats pan out, it's going to be hard for Feb to torch if the GFS's 500 mb depiction is correct in the medium/LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Good signal for the first wave on the GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 12z GEFS is cooler around the time the precip comes in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Even if none of these storm threats pan out, it's going to be hard for Feb to torch if the GFS's 500 mb depiction is correct in the medium/LR. Who cares Pack! You enjoy your 2nd ice storm , then worry about the torch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 No support for the 2nd wave on the GEFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 21 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Even if none of these storm threats pan out, it's going to be hard for Feb to torch if the GFS's 500 mb depiction is correct in the medium/LR. Second half looks pretty torchy on most models, but I agree. The 10-15 day looks amazing. CFS will be wrong if it holds this mornings look for tomorrow, period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 If nothing else the cold NW will take a break. Could be somewhat active in the east. Also, my WB subscription expired, done paying for that. That will help cut back on my warm posts...should make Mack happy :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 10 minutes ago, Jon said: Second half looks pretty torchy on most models, but I agree. The 10-15 day looks amazing. CFS will be wrong if it holds this mornings look for tomorrow, period. We have, what, 2 more CFS progs to go? I hope they come in warmer than today's run, because a), either we'll set a record for Feb or b ), it'll bust horrifically and we won't need to worry a thing about it anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Cfs is garbage. Who has the ukie for Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 NAVGEM is rain on super bowl Sunday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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