mackerel_sky Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Just now, JoshM said: Freezing rain all the way down to Columbia, SC. Love to see that! Yeah,that way we already know the 850s are screwing us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: No, just moves from S AL/GA to off CHS! Need it to be a little more south, but still nice run, verbatim I hope JB is wrong on this one. He thinks Texas to Ohio then off redevelop Va. I think next one has a better chance for us..... He's right just enough he scares me on storms 7-10 days out...... He's all about pattern not models runs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: Yeah,that way we already know the 850s are screwing us! Mid-atlantic gets dry slotted, bless them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Just now, JoshM said: Mid-atlantic gets dry slotted, bless them lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Just now, JoshM said: Mid-atlantic gets dry slotted, bless them Awwwww...... I bet there are some nice GFS ensembles coming out in a bit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Looks like everyone starts as some rain, goes to snow, then sleet, then zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Just now, JoshM said: Looks like everyone starts as some rain, goes to snow, then sleet, then zr. I like them kind of storms, If we can get a few inches of snow cap it with Ice! Gives it staying power!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 1 minute ago, JoshM said: Looks like everyone starts as some rain, goes to snow, then sleet, then zr. A cold overall look on the whole run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Well at least we still got something to watch for another run. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Y'all just conveniently ignore the cutting CMC? Or claim it is a garbage model? Ha I see how we roll in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: A cold overall look on the whole run! You're on the borderline between ZR and sleet fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Here we go, just in GFS wheelhouse. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Just now, griteater said: Y'all just conveniently ignore the cutting CMC? Or claim it is a garbage model? Ha I see how we roll in here I don't ignore it, all these models have been running a relay race with our storm. I'm curious who the GFS will pass the baton to next round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Just now, griteater said: Y'all just conveniently ignore the cutting CMC? Or claim it is a garbage model? Ha I see how we roll in here It'll correct South tomorrow ! That's how we roll! Only in the MA are they now saying" we toss 0z GFS" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: Y'all just conveniently ignore the cutting CMC? Or claim it is a garbage model? Ha I see how we roll in here No Sir, Not me.......... That's a JB track!!! To far away to trust any model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 1 minute ago, BIG FROSTY said: Here we go, just in GFS wheelhouse. lol That's some wicked WAA to the west of the storm. Rain all the way up into Manitoba. Not sure how I feel about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 GFS is seems to be moving away from the cut look. Will our PV be stout though? That's probably my main concern right now. But that's the fun in all of this. You just never know! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Euro is suppression city. At hour 192, only precip is over the gulf of mexico. Literally no precip or storm, in fact, no precip over the entire eastern half of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 6z GFS is an I-40 Special, all rain south. 1030HP isn't going to keep it cold enough. But it's still a good look, IMO. Mid-Atlantic and NE get hammered, *sigh*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Thought there would be more chatter about the Feb.6-9 possibilities. only 7 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 50 minutes ago, fritschy said: Thought there would be more chatter about the Feb.6-9 possibilities. only 7 days out. We don't track rainstorms! But seriously, the GFS is a MA crush job , the CMC , was an apps runner, and Euro is so supressed, that there's no precip in the whole SE! Should be a little mor consistency at this range, but when GFS is only one with even a chance at wintry, it gives you not a warm and fuzzy feeling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 With so little consistency hard to get down or excited. Not happy with the recent models weakening our west coast ridge, Euro really strengthens a low into pacific NW that really screws up any chances of a storm. Until the major PAC players get sorted out, models will be all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Well, we'll see if we can back off of this in two days. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 14 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: We don't track rainstorms! But seriously, the GFS is a MA crush job , the CMC , was an apps runner, and Euro is so supressed, that there's no precip in the whole SE! Should be a little mor consistency at this range, but when GFS is only one with even a chance at wintry, it gives you not a warm and fuzzy feeling Yeah, I'm not overly excited about winter storms right now, but the pattern does argue to keep watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 4 minutes ago, Jon said: Well, we'll see if we can back off of this in two days. Yikes. Pack?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 20 minutes ago, Jonesing for a chase said: With so little consistency hard to get down or excited. Not happy with the recent models weakening our west coast ridge, Euro really strengthens a low into pacific NW that really screws up any chances of a storm. Until the major PAC players get sorted out, models will be all over the place. I agree. I'm a little discouraged by the 00z EPS. Our ridge is getting squashed, it's simple as that...without that ridge, it's simply not going to dig south OR be cold enough. Here's the 00z on the 28th and the 00z last night We're still very far out, but you can see the model trying to connect the toughing over the top there...the GEFS has agreed over the last 3 runs, moving away from the ridging out west. Not sure the mechanism of this - it might be the fact that the AK ridge is moving out (towards russia) during this time period, and moving quickly, giving us only a brief moment to make that ridge connection. Good news though, mega ridging on 2/10 on the GEFS says we get another shot, if this one doesn't work out. You can see the s/w over the gulf states here on the 06z. It would be a shame to miss out on both of these due to cold not being deep enough. At this point, it's hard to trust either one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 31 minutes ago, Jon said: Well, we'll see if we can back off of this in two days. Yikes. This is what I was talking about the other day. I don't know what it is about the CFS, but it seems to do this frequently. It'll get cold with about 10 days to go in the month and then the last few days it reverts back to warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 25 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Pack?? Best run of the Op GFS all winter...hello spring. And we thought Jan was warm :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 EPS is sure moving around a lot lately, like Jon said it backed off last night. But, theme is warm is winning this winter so any cold model runs should be taken with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: Best run of the Op GFS all winter...hello spring. And we thought Jan was warm :-) What in the heck? Wasn't it literally yesterday that we were saying the LR looked promising? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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