mackerel_sky Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: The clipper look turned poor on the modeling....Euro pretty much won out there Out to 150 on GFS....the PV and associated trough into New England are farther east this run....I suspect the GFS will move north with the storm this run...we'll see Isn't there some crap storm around the 3rd, then " the one" on 6-8th timeframe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Isn't there some crap storm around the 3rd, then " the one" on 6-8th timeframe? Yeah the crap storm on the 3rd is crap...some light rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: Yeah the crap storm on the 3rd is crap...some light rain This is gonna be north of 18z no doubt. H5 look in the NE is completely different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Yeah the crap storm on the 3rd is crap...some light rain Yeah, to my untrained eye, it doesn't look good for wintry on the 6th or 7th, the early call!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 The split flow and Pacific wave train in the southern stream is just beautiful here...but we've got to have the northern stream cold press over the Great Lakes and the Northeast. Out to 189 the wave is digging nicely into the 4 corners and positive tilt but our PV has moved out of SE Canada and we are lacking cold reinforcement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, griteater said: The split flow and Pacific wave train in the southern stream is just beautiful here...but we've got to have the northern stream cold press over the Great Lakes and the Northeast. Out to 189 the wave is digging nicely into the 4 corners and positive tilt but our PV has moved out of SE Canada and we are lacking cold reinforcement Looks like the vort that is not coming out to help our clipper, kicks out in front of the Super Bowl vort, into the gulf? Doesn't mean much, but interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Low will become a cutter with a few more ticks north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 It's way north this run. The southern stream wave was fine digging into the 4 corners...the northern stream cold press was the fail point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 CMC moved south and has significant snow/sleet in northern NC mtns....and wintry mix to ice in N/NW Piedmont and Foothills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Just now, griteater said: CMC moved south and has significant snow/sleet in northern NC mtns....and wintry mix to ice in N/NW Piedmont and Foothills These Highs sliding OTS are killing us. Without blocking, it'll be timing, timing, and timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Well that was fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 GFS Ensemble Mean is pretty close to the 18z run...didn't really move north like the operational run did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Ensemble is encouraging at this range though. On to the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Fixin to get a CMC & Euro combo here in a hour. Then I'm gonna fire up the bus and ride it to Glory one last time before Big Frostys favorite weather season 90/70 shows up for 6 straight months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Well. Nothing like a convertible. It's been warm enough. Almost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Let's see what the King has to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Did everyone fall asleep? Euro was a good snow for us NC folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 1 hour ago, JoshM said: Did everyone fall asleep? Euro was a good snow for us NC folks. Don't worry, they will be going crazy when they wake up in a couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Where are the snow maps, Josh? Come on man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 19 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Where are the snow maps, Josh? Come on man! Can't share in public, see your PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 @hr 210 on the euro, 2m temps are 33 from CLT to RDU, 850s look good from 95 west in NC. York county, SC until North GA look good too. All these areas get at least 4 inches all snow, with ~ 7 inches east northeast of Raleigh toward VA border. Raleigh 6" Charlotte 5" Gastonia 6" Shelby 5" Hickory 4.5" Spartanburg County in SC is a big swing, with 6 in the northern part and 2 in the southern half. Atlanta is all rain, 850s around 6 degrees C, and 2m temps in upper 30s F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 7 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Clipper looks like a dud, outside of high mountains in NC Asheville starting to look pretty good for a ground covering, maybe just enough to close schools. It doesn't take much especially with the cold temps, it will stick Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Someone find my post when I said to wait until Jan 27 10 days or to see a storm on the models lol. I need to play the lottery now. But seirioisly, I think we got pretty lucky to see both model OPs throw out a storm today. Ensembles aren't too impressive (GEFS mean is skewed by one member and the EPS doesn't have much support as far as snow maps go) BUT here's the 500mb look, you can see the EPS has our shortwave over Kentucky, that wouldn't be good - it needs to be over the gulf states. With that said, at least the EPS has a storm. Also, the ridging that I mentioned could possibly connect to the ridging over Alaska is happening here - very good sign to help the storm dig SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 EURO looks good, but the northwest trend will likely make it another WAKE transition zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Sounds like the Euro will be another I-85 special. Sorry, Mack. We lose again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 I always know what the EURO shows by checking my iPhone app before anything else. This morning it has the big snowflake for next Sunday/Monday (but with highs both days in the mid 40s :/). Anyway...so far this winter the GFS has had the edge around day 5. Who has the edge at days 8-9? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Ensembles show a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 1 hour ago, Jon said: Someone find my post when I said to wait until Jan 27 10 days or to see a storm on the models lol. I need to play the lottery now. But seirioisly, I think we got pretty lucky to see both model OPs throw out a storm today. Ensembles aren't too impressive (GEFS mean is skewed by one member and the EPS doesn't have much support as far as snow maps go) BUT here's the 500mb look, you can see the EPS has our shortwave over Kentucky, that wouldn't be good - it needs to be over the gulf states. With that said, at least the EPS has a storm. Also, the ridging that I mentioned could possibly connect to the ridging over Alaska is happening here - very good sign to help the storm dig SE. As you mentioned at southernwx the northern stream is key to this , without confluence there is no shot as it will run to our west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 49 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: EURO looks good, but the northwest trend will likely make it another WAKE transition zone. It only trended about 500 miles south, in yesterday's runs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 We're still quite a bit out from this one but the setup looks enticing. Regardless, for this to work the PNA ridge MUST be in place and the PV over SE Canada. Got to have well established cold air in place. That was our issue with the early Jan event for those S of 85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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