packbacker Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 To bad no deep cold, otherwise this would have been a big modeled winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: To bad no deep cold, otherwise this would have been a big modeled winter storm. Pack, love it when you start talking dirty! That is a nice high placement where our lakes low would normally be! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Verbatim Euro is light snow to significant ice in NW Piedmont and N Foothills of NC...day 9-10. Large shift south on that particular run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Yep, massive shift south with the D9-10 event. HP in a great position, but sliding out with no blocking. 12z is about as good as it can get WRT timing between the LP and HP. That's what we'd need to score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Pack, love it when you start talking dirty! That is a nice high placement where our lakes low would normally be! Yeah if only that high would tend from 1033 to 1043 we would be in business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Pack, love it when you start talking dirty! That is a nice high placement where our lakes low would normally be! The lakes low shows up by 240. Right on time to spoil the fun like a mother in law on Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 9 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Yep, massive shift south with the D9-10 event. HP in a great position, but sliding out with no blocking. 12z is about as good as it can get WRT timing between the LP and HP. That's what we'd need to score. Agree. That's fine, blocking won't happen this winter. Either we're lucky, or we'll miss out. Need stout cold to make anything happen and perfect timing. Feb 6-7 is the period to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 BTW, the Euro has been trending south for the past 3 runs since 12z yesterday. This storm was on the Candian border over the lakes 12z yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Mentioned this a bit this morning, ridge on west coast pumping due to Aleutians low and russian high couplet, with confluence swinging down over the hudson bay...wouldn't take much for either feature to trend stronger and have a better setup. 00z Euro tonight and 12z EPS should be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 So it looks like the euro has ensemble support for this as well? Wasn't the 12z GFS suppressed? If so this is a potentially believable trend. Let's see what the 18z GFS does at this range again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Lol moisture chasing cold air Don't do this to yourselves! Just log out and walk away from the keyboard slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 16 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Lol moisture chasing cold air Don't do this to yourselves! Just log out and walk away from the keyboard slowly. Incorrect. What you see there is a CAD signal. You're in the wrong thread anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 well obviously its a CAD event.. The HP isn't even in place yet in the NE. Like I said, moisture chasing cold. Barring perfect timing, what feature is in place to ensure our HP stays parked in the NE for the event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 12 minutes ago, WarmNose said: well obviously its a CAD event.. The HP isn't even in place yet in the NE. Like I said, moisture chasing cold. Barring perfect timing, what feature is in place to ensure our HP stays parked in the NE for the event? No blocking, so the HP won't stay parked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 1 minute ago, AsheCounty48 said: No blocking, so the HP won't stay parked. I rest my case. Sorry for the "banter" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 1 minute ago, WarmNose said: I rest my case. Sorry for the "banter" Didn't have blocking for the last blockbuster ! It's known that that won't happen this year, the blocking! And we already scored! It's better than tracking 10 days+ of 70's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Looks like the eps folded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 7 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: No blocking, so the HP won't stay parked. Looks like the high would move in tandem with the low. Perfect timing is all we have and this is just a good of a shot as any! Atleast the highs not already in the Atlantic at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 9 day op run, it will be totally different at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 3 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Looks like the eps folded. What do you mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Might have to fire up the bus this weekend. May have one more storm to chase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 I thought we were desperate!??? JB just showed the Brazillian model today!! What a joke! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Just now, NCSNOW said: Might have to fire up the bus this weekend. May have one more storm to chase Yeah, go to Boone and you'll be good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Day 10 sure looks cutterific but also EPS is hinting at a more suppressed solution on day 12-13. Question is how much cold air will be available, as of now it doesn't look like a lot. Below you can compare the day 12 setup with past solid NC winter storms with a strong bearing ridge. The ensembles have been shifting that towards Russia more which obviously isn't as good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Love the EPS snowmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 7 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I thought we were desperate!??? JB just showed the Brazillian model today!! What a joke! JB posted this and this was his last sentence...finally starting to give up. If we dont get some snow here the next 10 days, I will start rooting against it, because in the end, any extreme is better than no extremes at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 23 minutes ago, WarmNose said: I rest my case. Sorry for the "banter" Can still have an in-situ cad setup. Even though the HP is sliding off the coast, enough low level cold air can be trapped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 25 minutes ago, packbacker said: What do you mean? More ridging out west and more of a trough on the east coast day 10. Of course, I was only able to see day 11-15 eps maps others have posted the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 11 minutes ago, rduwx said: Can still have an in-situ cad setup. Even though the HP is sliding off the coast, enough low level cold air can be trapped. Exactly. This is far from cold chasing moisture with the high in the position it's in, even a retreating high. It will take perfect timing, but it's not cold chasing moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 20 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Love the EPS snowmap The "big dogs" are up tick this run, 4-5 big dogs for NC (7-10"+), only 1-2 on the 0z EPS I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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