jshetley Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 1 hour ago, Cold Rain said: Yes, that one was horrible. At least part of the fun of winter is tracking storms with you all, even if they don't pan out. This winter has been not much fun. 2012 is already off the table though since most of us have had at least some winter precip. 2013 is alive and well though. I did get my one and only experience with thundersnow in 2013 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 I'm working outside today and I'm genuinely hot..but not hot enough!! I'm turning all the lights in my house on and spraying a truck load of aerosol when I get home! Let's crank it up to 90F! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 8 minutes ago, jshetley said: 2012 is already off the table though since most of us have had at least some winter precip. 2013 is alive and well though. I did get my one and only experience with thundersnow in 2013 though. I have never experienced thundersnow. Guess that opportunity is circling the drain this year too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Comparing the EPS/GEFS from several days ago to what it's showing now. EPS seems to doing much better and the GEFS has been a cold outlier. I originally thought the GEFS may be correct but when the EPS stayed consistent, it's still the best for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 1 hour ago, pcbjr said: A birdie on the back 9? Let's put it this way. It's match play. We're 2down And we've got 2 holes left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 I've looked at every model I can think of this afternoon, and I can't find anything that even offers a possibility for more than a light flurry...unless I'm missing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 11 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Let's put it this way. It's match play. We're 2down And we've got 2 holes left. They are Dormie. That is no good. I need 3.5 more inches of snow to get to climo. Yes we can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 9 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: I've looked at every model I can think of this afternoon, and I can't find anything that even offers a possibility for more than a light flurry...unless I'm missing something. German Model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 32 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: I have never experienced thundersnow. Guess that opportunity is circling the drain this year too. March 1993. The first time I saw it. Pretty amazing middle of the day ripping snow with thunder and lightning. Many, many strikes. Absolutely amazing to experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 14 minutes ago, No snow for you said: German Model? French? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 I've experienced thundersnow at least 3 times that i can recall. March 93, Feb 04, March 09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: I've experienced thundersnow at least 3 times that i can recall. March 93, Feb 04, March 09. Yeah I experienced it March 09 also. The thunder can be really muffled, but the snow rates are very heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 37 minutes ago, No snow for you said: German Model? Defeated. 23 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: French? Surrendered. 29 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: March 1993. The first time I saw it. Pretty amazing middle of the day ripping snow with thunder and lightning. Many, many strikes. Absolutely amazing to experience. Yeah, I've heard stories about that one. Shame we were on the wrong side over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 March 93 had thunder snow here there was a storm I think in 96 had thunder snow too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 55 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: I've looked at every model I can think of this afternoon, and I can't find anything that even offers a possibility for more than a light flurry...unless I'm missing something. Did you check with the cat yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, frazdaddy said: Did you check with the cat yet? The CRC model has been a little jumpy over the last few days. It did leave a warm anomaly on the hood of my car the other day, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Just now, Cold Rain said: The CRC model has been a little jumpy over the last few days. It did leave a warm anomaly on the hood of my car the other day, though. Prob the most accurate forecast yet. Certainly lines up with what we are seeing for the rest of this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Hoping for a flurry (...sad times): The continental flow will keep us dry for much of the period but there is some question about Sunday night when a developing low off of the east coast interacts with an upper level wave to our northwest. The end result could be enough moisture to produce a few flurries or brief snow showers across the northern tier of the forecast area Sunday night into early Monday morning. QPF values are very low at this time so no accumulation is expected. Temperature profiles and partial thicknesses look cold enough at this time to support snow but if precipitation were to occur across the southern tier at all it could present as flurries or sprinkles. Again, very minimal no impact event if it occurs at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 When there is a 546dm ridge right over AK and that still can't deliver BN temps to us then you know winter is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Pac jet is way too strong. You simply can't have a jet that strong in the Pacific unless you either have something to deflect it, i.e. +PNA or something to greatly suppress it, i.e. hyper blocking over Greenland and into eastern Canada -- not weak ridging in that area -- hyper blocking. Otherwise, you get a jet slamming into the west coast, keeping them cool and stormy and flooding the mid and southern tier of the US with Pacific air. The only benefit of the big AK block is to keep Canada cold...which is good IF it remains in place and IF the Pac jet slows down or gets deflected or suppressed. And none of those things appear to be substantially in the cards anytime soon. Thanks ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++QBO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Might as well make a spring thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 15 minutes ago, packbacker said: When there is a 546dm ridge right over AK and that still can't deliver BN temps to us then you know winter is over. I think that's reasonable at that timeframe though Pack. It's a trough that is moving toward the west coast prior to the AK ridge going up. After the AK ridge goes up, then some arctic air can be dislodged if the wave breaking with the ridge is favorable. The AK ridge looks stout, but the ongoing issues remain....that is, -EPO tends to halt the bulk of the cold to our NW...and we don't have -AO/-NAO to send more of it south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 26 minutes ago, griteater said: I think that's reasonable at that timeframe though Pack. It's a trough that is moving toward the west coast prior to the AK ridge going up. After the AK ridge goes up, then some arctic air can be dislodged if the wave breaking with the ridge is favorable. The AK ridge looks stout, but the ongoing issues remain....that is, -EPO tends to halt the bulk of the cold to our NW...and we don't have -AO/-NAO to send more of it south. I dunno...that's a stout AK block day 8+ on the EPS and the deep cold barely penetrates the conus. This reminds me of a cross between 79 and 82. I been looking for winters with that strong AK block and the muted temps the EPS is showing and don't find any. The 79/82 analogs are not blocky other then the AK block either. I left out Feb 2014 as it had a nice -AO to go with the AK block. I am sure the EPS is right but just feel like with that block even with a neutral AO and days 11+ a neutral PNA. So with that said if this is the best we can do for BN temps with that AK block and neutral AO/PNA then winter really is over for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
27596WXNUT Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 37 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Might as well make a spring thread. Good with me. If there is no snow in the long term and thugs aren't looking good let's close up shop on winter. Time to put the boat in the water. I am all for tracking winter weather but if we ain't getting any let's get on to spring and summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 ^ If that AK block forms like that, there will be some cold air sent down....but again, the bulk stays to our NW or W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 7 minutes ago, griteater said: ^ If that AK block forms like that, there will be some cold air sent down....but again, the bulk stays to our NW or W. Good point...I should have clarified the deepest cold would be in central/southern plains. Like the control run is showing, but it has a 570dm ridge, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 GFS Para hours 276 and 384 are money! These look to be some real drought busters! Beggers can't be choosers. We all love winter and as much as we hate to ride with our sunroof down in the heart of winter we can all agree we needed the rain. On a side note: What are the odds someone in our region sets a record daily low temperature before February is over? Would the lack of snow cover on the east cost make that impossible regardless of the pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 The 18z GFS still shows some flurries/snow showers for Sunday night. We need to keep an eye on this potential (minor) event. It should become clearer in the next couple of days; or we could have to wait until the radar returns start showing up (or not). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 5 hours ago, WarmNose said: And we've got 2 holes left. I'll leave it at that .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 CFS doing CFS things again, expect colder run on monthly website tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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