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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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GFS is back to furnace mode, it did lead the way with the AK ridge on roids but Euro has led the way of not spitting out fantasy cold patterns.   

Curious to see if this winter has a chance at being one of the warmest winters....a year after one of the warmest winters.  Well...definitely pre-emergent before Valentines this winter.

gfs_T2ma_us_41.png

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This is still shaping up to be one of the top 2-3 worst winters I ever remember.  Just nothing after nothing after nothing to even track.  Warm, warm, warm, warm.  Fake LR cold, and just sustained unfavorable index configurations.  I hope this is like the blow off top for warm winters before the ice age.

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5 minutes ago, packbacker said:

GFS is back to furnace mode, it did lead thew with the AK ridge on roids but Euro has led the way of not spitting out fantasy cold patterns.   

Curious to see if this winter has a chance at being one of the warmest winters....a year after one of the warmest winters.  Well...definitely pre-emergent before Valentines this winter.

 

Yeah, definitely don't buy that look (the warmth and ridging at 500mb) with that AK ridge. That run is BS, we'll take a look at the ensembles here in the next hour. If the models hold the AK ridge (in the orientation as displayed on the GEFS)  this won't happen. If the EPS wins out, however, we're in for it. Still - better to understand why this run showed warmth, clear as day at 500mh NH.

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4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

This is still shaping up to be one of the top 2-3 worst winters I ever remember.  Just nothing after nothing after nothing to even track.  Warm, warm, warm, warm.  Fake LR cold, and just sustained unfavorable index configurations.  I hope this is like the blow off top for warm winters before the ice age.

That sounds exactly like the winter of 2011-12.

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5 minutes ago, packbacker said:

GFS says the strat was pretty to look at while it lasted.  Back over the pole fairly quickly...

Screen Shot 2017-01-25 at 11.54.36 AM.png

Unicorns and strat warming! They are real , I promise! SW is used out of sheer desperation and has never worked in our favor! JB is counting on it to save his crap winter forecast, so there's your sign !

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3 minutes ago, Jon said:

Yeah, definitely don't buy that look (the warmth and ridging at 500mb) with that AK ridge. That run is BS, we'll take a look at the ensembles here in the next hour. If the models hold the AK ridge (in the orientation as displayed on the GEFS)  this won't happen. If the EPS wins out, however, we're in for it. Still - better to understand why this run showed warmth, clear as day at 500mh NH.

With the parade of pacific waves it beefs up the Bearing ridge but then drives it over to Russia.  We are left with no blocking, +EPO and SER.  This upcoming potential you called for was only interesting when some semblance of blocking showing up. But the theme this winter has been strong very short duration -EPO with SER.

gfs_z500a_nhem_41.png

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10 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

This is still shaping up to be one of the top 2-3 worst winters I ever remember.  Just nothing after nothing after nothing to even track.  Warm, warm, warm, warm.  Fake LR cold, and just sustained unfavorable index configurations.  I hope this is like the blow off top for warm winters before the ice age.

I think most have accepted this, though I didn think we would have another 5-7 day window between the 7-15th but that looks less likely.  If we are going to suck then let's really suck. This winter will join the likes of 06, 08, 12, 13...craptastic.

Question is...how are weak +ENSO/+QBO winters (17/18).  My guess is non-blocky and we will somehow have to deal with a SER in a non -ENSO I am sure.

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1 minute ago, packbacker said:

With the parade of pacific waves it beefs up the Bearing ridge but then drives it over to Russia.  We are left with no blocking, +EPO and SER.  This upcoming potential you called for was only interesting when some semblance of blocking showing up. But the theme this winter has been strong very short duration -EPO with SER.

gfs_z500a_nhem_41.png

Yeah, I don't agree with it driving over Russia so I don't agree with the 500mb look of the 12z OP, that orientation would certainly hang a trough over the west but I'll have to wait to see if the GEFS bites. But I agree, have said it and agreed with you...sustained blocking for any duration is out of the question. We will get snow because we will get lucky, like we did last time, with a brief ridge and a good s/w at the same time some confluence swings down. That's how this winter will be, up and down. We're likely to miss out on those opportunities, it's the SE...but you can still "identify" the opportunities models are hinting on. JB needs to give sustained cold and stormy a rest...

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24 minutes ago, packbacker said:

I think most have accepted this, though I didn think we would have another 5-7 day window between the 7-15th but that looks less likely.  If we are going to suck then let's really suck. This winter will join the likes of 06, 08, 12, 13...craptastic.

Question is...how are weak +ENSO/+QBO winters (17/18).  My guess is non-blocky and we will somehow have to deal with a SER in a non -ENSO I am sure.

We'll find a way to screw it up.  I'm sure the QBO will be off the charts in the wrong direction.  I am hoping we get a couple of 80F days soon.

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12z GEFS backed off the cold but overall not a bad look, especially after day 14 (yes, I know only 15 days away!!!) This is almost preferred to the previous runs of the GEFS, honestly, because Canada is still cold, but doesn't elongate the trough over the US with the massive cold dump as seen on previous runs. This allows a +PNA to form on the east coast Day 14, which is what we're going to need this winter without blocking to get the job done.

fTkxAai.png

yoIOpl4.png

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Well we now have a forecasted technical SSW on the Euro at day 8 with reversal at 10hpa.Will it move down to the trop and where will it set up is to be watched but these things take usually 2 weeks or so to feel any effects.There's better agreement on AO/NAO effects if it can reverse at 30hpa if you read research on it.

Carry on.

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2 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Well we now have a forecasted technical SSW on the Euro at day 8 with reversal at 10hpa.Will it move down to the trop and where will it set up is to be watched but these things take usually 2 weeks or so to feel any effects.There's better agreement on AO/NAO effects if it can reverse at 30hpa if you read research on it.

Carry on.

What are you thinking in terms of solar impacts for the next couple of winters?  We're entering a pretty substantial min.

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2 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Well we now have a forecasted technical SSW on the Euro at day 8 with reversal at 10hpa.Will it move down to the trop and where will it set up is to be watched but these things take usually 2 weeks or so to feel any effects.There's better agreement on AO/NAO effects if it can reverse at 30hpa if you read research on it.

Carry on.

So we wouldn't feel any effects until 2 weeks after day 8 which would put us at almost March ?

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