cbmclean Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 4 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: I wonder why ? I guess East-Central NC has had a lot of CAD to make things cooler ? Well, it does seem like we have had a lot of CAD events this year, and those do tend to suppress torches for highs, but CAD regimes tend t be warm at night due to all the cloud cover so I am not sure they even have a net cooling affect when mean temps are considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 35 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: So when is it gonna change franklin? What say you? March and April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: March and April. No doubt, -AO and -NAO is a lock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 9 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I'm not convinced that we can blame this solely or primarily on the Nina. The signal was weak at best. True the southeast ridge has been dominant, but is La Nina the only thing that can cause that? We have had canonical Nina forcing with a hearty +AO which is recipe for SE warmth. Even with the bouts of the -EPO/-WPO. We knew we were getting the Nina but the strong AO was a killer with a -PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 18 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Right turn, Clyde Hahahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 5 minutes ago, packbacker said: We have had canonical Nina forcing with a hearty +AO which is recipe for SE warmth. Even with the bouts of the -EPO/-WPO. We knew we were getting the Nina but the strong AO was a killer with a -PNA. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++QBO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: We have had canonical Nina forcing with a hearty +AO which is recipe for SE warmth. Even with the bouts of the -EPO/-WPO. We knew we were getting the Nina but the strong AO was a killer with a -PNA. Sigh. That is four out of the last six winters (11-12, 12-13, 15-16, 16-17) which have been duds (unless something miraculous happens in Feb). YOu can tell its weighing on the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Just now, Cold Rain said: ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++QBO What affect does the QBO have on our sensible weather? I had read that west phase was hostile to HLB, but yesterday someone told me that the correlation wasn't meaningful for most conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 7 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Sigh. That is four out of the last six winters (11-12, 12-13, 15-16, 16-17) which have been duds (unless something miraculous happens in Feb). YOu can tell its weighing on the forum. And 5 out of the last 6 winters for Atlanta. 14-15 was a dud for the I-20 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 4 minutes ago, cbmclean said: What affect does the QBO have on our sensible weather? I had read that west phase was hostile to HLB, but yesterday someone told me that the correlation wasn't meaningful for most conditions. So how's this strat warming, February to remember coming along? Still looking good at day 15 on GFS , good! Thought we'd lost the pipe-busting cold that keeps showing up only on the GFS ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 7 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Sigh. That is four out of the last six winters (11-12, 12-13, 15-16, 16-17) which have been duds (unless something miraculous happens in Feb). YOu can tell its weighing on the forum. Off the top of my head...since 2005 (13 winters), we have had 3 BN, 1N and 9 AN. In 2020 we will be comparing seasonal avgs against a new, higher 30 year norm, so maybe that starts changing. Unfortunately that won't help our seasonal snowfall average which is quickly turning into very Miami like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: Off the top of my head...since 2005 (13 winters), we have had 3 BN, 1N and 9 AN. In 2020 we will be comparing seasonal avgs against a new, higher 30 year norm, so maybe that starts changing. Unfortunately that won't help our seasonal snowfall average which is quickly turning into very Miami like. I'm not sure that mean is the best tool to look at snowfall, though. Snowfall average seems to be very non-normally distributed and I suspect that the mean is heavily influenced by the outliers, like the 25.8 inches in January 2001. I downloaded some monthly data from RDU today that goes back to 1944. I mean to shift through when I get time. A few weeks ago in the run-up to the winter-storm "event" I think I remember Greg Fishel saying that the median (as opposed to mean) for snowfall at RDU is only something like 0.75". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 21 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I'm not sure that mean is the best tool to look at snowfall, though. Snowfall average seems to be very non-normally distributed and I suspect that the mean is heavily influenced by the outliers, like the 25.8 inches in January 2001. I downloaded some monthly data from RDU today that goes back to 1944. I mean to shift through when I get time. A few weeks ago in the run-up to the winter-storm "event" I think I remember Greg Fishel saying that the median (as opposed to mean) for snowfall at RDU is only something like 0.75". The median is 0.75" if we use the past 10-11 years, as that's 5 snowy winters and 6 non-snowy. If we had looked at our median since 2000 after last winter it would have been 6.5", using median over longer stretches makes more sense, longer than 10 or 16 years or 20 years. The median has definitely dropped since the 90's, as you see below, but so has our mean, anyway you look at the numbers its not good. Climate probably is changing and what we are experiencing is the new norm....in 20 years we will probably look back at a winter like this and appreciate the 0.5" of snow/sleet alot more. For reference, our current 30 year running mean is 5.5", it was almost 9" back in the late 80's. Good bet we won't see averages like that in our lifetimes. RDU Median snowfall 127 years (5.9") 70 years (5.7") 50 years (5.7") 20 years (2.5") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhill Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 10 minutes ago, packbacker said: RDU Median snowfall 127 years (5.9") 70 years (5.7") 50 years (5.7") 20 years (2.5") So, according to this long-term 'trend', we can expect it to take 30 years to return to 5.9 - 5.7" median? Unless that conveyer of salt water in the Atlantic gets too fresh of course... Models seem to agree. JK - positive thoughts... Counting on March and April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 23 minutes ago, packbacker said: The median is 0.75" if we use the past 10-11 years, as that's 5 snowy winters and 6 non-snowy. If we had looked at our median since 2000 after last winter it would have been 6.5", using median over longer stretches makes more sense, longer than 10 or 16 years or 20 years. The median has definitely dropped since the 90's, as you see below, but so has our mean, anyway you look at the numbers its not good. Climate probably is changing and what we are experiencing is the new norm....in 20 years we will probably look back at a winter like this and appreciate the 0.5" of snow/sleet alot more. For reference, our current 30 year running mean is 5.5", it was almost 9" back in the late 80's. Good bet we won't see averages like that in our lifetimes. RDU Median snowfall 127 years (5.9") 70 years (5.7") 50 years (5.7") 20 years (2.5") Interesting data, thanks for sharing. I don't think there is any "probably" about anything, this is the new normal, and the reason analogs are almost useless these days. Wasnt this thread for serious input? I'm not going to mention any names, I shouldn't have to, but there is some serious trash in here. I respectfully read way more than I post out of respect for the ones who put their hard efforts into breaking down real data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 FWIW, the 0z GFS is much colder than 18z. Trough is digging a decent bit more, freezing temps into Florida panhandle @ 180, then again @ 204. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 hour ago, packbacker said: The median is 0.75" if we use the past 10-11 years, as that's 5 snowy winters and 6 non-snowy. If we had looked at our median since 2000 after last winter it would have been 6.5", using median over longer stretches makes more sense, longer than 10 or 16 years or 20 years. The median has definitely dropped since the 90's, as you see below, but so has our mean, anyway you look at the numbers its not good. Climate probably is changing and what we are experiencing is the new norm....in 20 years we will probably look back at a winter like this and appreciate the 0.5" of snow/sleet alot more. For reference, our current 30 year running mean is 5.5", it was almost 9" back in the late 80's. Good bet we won't see averages like that in our lifetimes. RDU Median snowfall 127 years (5.9") 70 years (5.7") 50 years (5.7") 20 years (2.5") Indeed. Sometimes I wish I enjoyed warm weather and hated cold. Then going into our climate future would be like going into some new exciting frontier. Instead I get to see the weather I love slowly die. It really gets me down. The worst thing is that no one around me understands these feelings. That's why having you guys is so important. You are like my group therapy session. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Indeed. Sometimes I wish I enjoyed warm weather and hated cold. Then going into our climate future would be like going into some new exciting frontier. Instead I get to see the weather I love slowly die. It really gets me down. The worst thing is that no one around me understands these feelings. That's why having you guys is so important. You are like my group therapy session. One of these days when you are old you can tell your grandkids what it was like when it used to snow in the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamby Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 meanwhile, the snow symbol thing creeps up on my wunderground 10 day... they seem as reliable a predictor as anything... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Euro looked pretty cold from the 27-3, but dry! Cold is winning after a month in the 60/70s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 6z GFS has the fantasy snow; at day 16. **Can't post an image for some reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, FallsLake said: 6z GFS has the fantasy snow; at day 16. **Can't post an image for some reason 6z also very close to something around day 7, light snow over Virginia. Need to pull for just a little more westward shift of the trough and a little digging of the energy and it might get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 5 minutes ago, Jonesing for a chase said: 6z also very close to something around day 7, light snow over Virginia. Need to pull for just a little more westward shift of the trough and a little digging of the energy and it might get interesting. I saw that. We'll have to keep an eye on these clippers as they get closer. Models have always performed poorly with these type of systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Yes exactly why I am still interested in this time period. Lots of time to trend a little NW and consolidate the energy at the base of the trough. One of these times models show nothing at the surface until 3-4 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Euro looked pretty cold from the 27-3, but dry! Cold is winning after a month in the 60/70s Mack JB just said , American Pie February!!! Step back for a few runs. And let's see what happens........... lol. Have a good day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 2 hours ago, FallsLake said: 6z GFS has the fantasy snow; at day 16. **Can't post an image for some reason the only trouble of course is the 16 days out, but at least its something to track for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 16 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Mack JB just said , American Pie February!!! Step back for a few runs. And let's see what happens........... lol. Have a good day! I need to step back!! JB has been singing American pie Feb for about 2 weeks! Hope he's right! Have a good one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 8 hours ago, cbmclean said: Indeed. Sometimes I wish I enjoyed warm weather and hated cold. Then going into our climate future would be like going into some new exciting frontier. Instead I get to see the weather I love slowly die. It really gets me down. The worst thing is that no one around me understands these feelings. That's why having you guys is so important. You are like my group therapy session. I agree, if you love warm weather you would be in hog heaven with what the future seems to hold, I wish it was the other way around cold and snow for the future winters. I love the warmer weather in spring but would like snow for most of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 I still wouldn't sleep on the system getting buried in the Gulf in 6-7 days. The models love showing that and usually the end result is either the system never makes it out of Mexico or Texas or it ends up way further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Systems are less likely to stay buried and more likely to come up as we get later in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.