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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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21 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

This is has got to be some kind of record for the lamest fading Nina ever having moderate/strong Nina characteristics.

You know how to bait me to go look don't you?  I can't stand it, I have to.  I'm pitiful.

For neg neutral and weak nina winters (DJFM), there are some warm ones with -QBO.  But with +QBO, they are all either near normal or slightly below normal with temps (10 total winters).  So yea, we are overperforming on the warm side just based on that.  AO and NAO aren't helping us.  I computed this the other day...the averaged daily sum of the AO+NAO for Dec 1 to Jan 15 is the 16th highest out of 67 years back to 1951.  2012, 2014, and 2015 are all in the top 12 in that list.

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5 minutes ago, griteater said:

^ Correction - 2012, 2014, and 2015 are all in the top 12 in that list.

Well we're just on ourselves a nice little streak here with blocking aren't we? <said in Church Lady voice>

church-lady.jpg

That's horrible.  We find every way to screw it up.  Thanks for looking that up!  Appreciate your frequent research here.

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10 minutes ago, packbacker said:

EPS control with a Apps to MA throttling day 12-13.

So the control run drives a shortwave south into ArkLaTex and closes it off over the upper south.  That's the kind of thing that would yield a bigger storm in this pattern.  There was one other EPS member with big totals, but otherwise pretty skimpy

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5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I saw no GEFS members with any appreciable snow in the SE.

 

3 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Winter cancel 

I think it just shows at this point our cold end of January will be dry. 

I'm still quite hopeful later in February somehow yields better chances of southern storms.  Mid February usually brings it the last few years.  

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18 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

How come no update on the weeklies? Are they so awesome it's taking longer? Yes!

Full fledged +PNA until Feb 3, then it breaks down as there's no blocking and the east coast trough slides out. Zonal pattern until Feb 10 when EC trough returns, again sliding out quickly. Trough returns yet again Feb 16, slides out. In between these dates appears to be nationwide AN temps so no lock in pattern here. The weeklies themselves will probably look warm when they come out, but it seems like we will get these cold/warm/cold/warm type patterns for the rest of our winter and that's really no surprise. If we lock into any sustained cold that would be incredible given how the winter has progressed so far, the base state, etc. 

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16 minutes ago, Jon said:

Full fledged +PNA until Feb 3, then it breaks down as there's no blocking and the east coast trough slides out. Zonal pattern until Feb 10 when EC trough returns, again sliding out quickly. Trough returns yet again Feb 16, slides out. In between these dates appears to be nationwide AN temps so no lock in pattern here. The weeklies themselves will probably look warm when they come out, but it seems like we will get these cold/warm/cold/warm type patterns for the rest of our winter and that's really no surprise. If we lock into any sustained cold that would be incredible given how the winter has progressed so far, the base state, etc. 

Thanks Jon, for the knife to the jugular! :( I thought with these magical SSW events and rainbows and lollipops, we were just going to have a blockbuster Feb and I don't think 2-3 day cold shots , are going to git-r-done

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Ok I'm going to ask a question here that may bring a chorus of hiss & jeers.  

Can anyone tell me what the Farmers Almanac says for February in the southeast?

i know that's probably like going to a Trek Convention and saying; "Hey I really thought the Wesely character in NG was awesome!"

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1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

Thanks Jon, for the knife to the jugular! :( I thought with these magical SSW events and rainbows and lollipops, we were just going to have a blockbuster Feb and I don't think 2-3 day cold shots , are going to git-r-done

I see talk of ridges and troughs and stratospheric warmings and euro weeklies, etc, but I haven't seen anyone expecting/forecasting a blockbuster Feb.  Where is that coming from?

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1 hour ago, CaryWx said:

Ok I'm going to ask a question here that may bring a chorus of hiss & jeers.  

Can anyone tell me what the Farmers Almanac says for February in the southeast?

i know that's probably like going to a Trek Convention and saying; "Hey I really thought the Wesely character in NG was awesome!"

Hey what was wrong with Wesley?! :lmao:

I do not remember exactly what the Almanac said, but I am pretty sure there weren't more than a couple of minor, unremarkable mentions of snow outside of the mountains. 

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