pcbjr Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: That low is headed to Cuba. In all seriousness - would that necessarily be a bad thing? It might just scour some stuff out and open a door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, pcbjr said: In all seriousness - would that necessarily be a bad thing? It might just scour some stuff out and open a door. At 384, Cuba is just fine. South America would probably be even better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Para strat ain't messing around either. temp of 65.2C seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 ^ Pack, do we want the orange and red stuff to force the green and purple stuff south to a position over the US? Because it looks like the red stuff is pushing the purple stuff over Greenland/ the NATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: ^ Pack, do we want the orange and red stuff to force the green and purple stuff south to a position over the US? Because it looks like the red stuff is pushing the purple stuff over Greenland/ the NATL. Yep, we want to heat up the artic as much as possible in the strat and hope it filters down to the trop. The cold blob between Europe and Newfoundland is in a good spot, as far as I know, maybe Grit will correct me if I am wrong. Mike V tweeted out what the EPS was showing, I thought I already posted that in here....it's impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Awesome, thanks man. I didn't know where the best place was for it to get displaced, if that makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 hour ago, cbmclean said: So I have learned alot about the AO, NAO, PNA MJO. How does the SOI affect us? Negative is good? FYI, the last time the SOI dropped to -40 or lower was April 20, 2016 (-45.35). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: Awesome, thanks man. I didn't know where the best place was for it to get displaced, if that makes sense. Best place to get it displaced, Europe and Asia! I think I heard that the effects if the strat warming , had a lag time of 3-4 weeks? Marvelous March incoming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 27 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: At 384, Cuba is just fine. South America would probably be even better! So long as it gets it cold down here, Cuba, Panama, Brazil are fine, so long as it sticks around for a few days and doesn't follow that green blob into the N.Atl! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: FYI, the last time the SOI dropped to -40 or lower was April 20, 2016 (-45.35). So in other words, not even 1 year ago. Less unusual than that poster made it sound. A Don Sutherland sighting in the madhouse that is the SE forum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 8 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Best place to get it displaced, Europe and Asia! I think I heard that the effects if the strat warming , had a lag time of 3-4 weeks? Marvelous March incoming! When is the last time that a SSW actually lead to a cold outbreak in the CONUS? I can't remember one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 So we want to heat up the Arctic even more - so we can get a killer snow storm here in Mid-Atl. Then as the Methane from the un-frozen permafrost shoots skyward further warming the air, we hope for the snowmelt to cause the North Atlantic Deep Water levels to shut down the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation - resulting in 8 degree C drops in annual median temperature in the north and south temperate zones. That would be so hot it would be cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 ^ Just a tad of winter will do, thank you! But all of this SSW is interesting - keep the info flowing, folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 minute ago, cbmclean said: So in other words, not even 1 year ago. Less unusual than that poster made it sound. A Don Sutherland sighting in the madhouse that is the SE forum! SOI values of -40 or below occur periodically during El Niño events and around them. In 2016, there were 7 such occurrences (2/22/2016 -50.34 was the lowest figure). In 2015, there were 12 such occurrences. The sharp decline in the SOI currently taking place suggests that the recent La Niña event is continuing to fade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 14 minutes ago, cbmclean said: When is the last time that a SSW actually lead to a cold outbreak in the CONUS? I can't remember one? 2009 and 2010 were majors I believe and those were fairly extreme/snowy as a result. Since then I don't think we have had a major, several minor/perturbed events that led to windows of cold/snow (Feb 2014 and 2015). But there has been ones like what is being modeled now, pushed off the pole, and led to squat (Feb 2000, 2001). I looked and for the time period being modeled (early Feb) strat PV pushed off pole and weakened towards Europe/NW atlantic and 1979 was one that sticks out. There are several that were similar though and several that amount to squat. But, what fun would it be to post warm/snowless maps, we will have enough of those to look at the next few weeks on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 An SSW can be good but it also can put the PV in a position that will not help us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 8 minutes ago, packbacker said: 2009 and 2010 were majors I believe and those were fairly extreme/snowy as a result. Since then I don't think we have had a major, several minor/perturbed events that led to windows of cold/snow (Feb 2014 and 2015). But there has been ones like what is being modeled now, pushed off the pole, and led to squat (Feb 2000, 2001). I looked and for the time period being modeled (early Feb) strat PV pushed off pole and weakened towards Europe/NW atlantic and 1979 was one that sticks out. There are several that were similar though and several that amount to squat. But, what fun would it be to post warm/snowless maps, we will have enough of those to look at the next few weeks on the ensembles. Yep, that's exactly what our Feb '17 map will look like! 700% or bust! That would be a Fab Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 51 minutes ago, packbacker said: Yep, we want to heat up the artic as much as possible in the strat and hope it filters down to the trop. The cold blob between Europe and Newfoundland is in a good spot, as far as I know, maybe Grit will correct me if I am wrong. Mike V tweeted out what the EPS was showing, I thought I already posted that in here....it's impressive. SSWs...it's a complex subject and one for which I have a lot of learning to do. It looks like we may at least get a minor warming, but don't know if we will reach an official SSW. Regardless, there are things like how the warming propagates down thru the stratosphere which affect its impact on the pattern. A few tidbits... 1. When a warming occurs, cold air outbreaks don't necessarily follow where the strat PV is displaced. That is, the strat PV may get displaced to W Europe, but what happens in the troposphere is separate. 2. Just reading a bit on the web, it sounds like where it may benefit us the most is by allowing for more poleward or prolonged -EPO ridging as long as the tropics allow for that ridging in the first place. Also, it sounds like a -NAO result is probably a lost cause (no surprise there)...again, just going on what I'm reading at a glance. 3. Levi Cowan has this video that talks about how cold air outbreaks in the E U.S. are much more common following SSWs during El Ninos than they are during La Ninas - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/2012/01/05/notes-on-the-upcoming-stratospheric-warming/ 4. Here's a good table of official SSWs - https://esrl.noaa.gov/csd/groups/csd8/sswcompendium/majorevents.html 5. Here's a good link for SSW animations through the years - http://www.meteo.mcgill.ca/~pmartineau/updated_graphs/svw_anim/all_gif/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 16 minutes ago, Met1985 said: An SSW can be good but it also can put the PV in a position that will not help us. I have seen it written that once you are left with counting on a SSW to save you, you are doomed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I have seen it written that once you are left with counting on a SSW to save you, you are doomed. I think the hard part it actually getting a full blown SSW to occure. Sometimes one starts but then fizzles out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 minute ago, Met1985 said: I think the hard part it actually getting a full blown SSW to occure. Sometimes one starts but then fizzles out. It's coming Met, Just hang in there a little longer! February into March just may be rocking!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Also, this is probably the best overview explanation of SSWs that I've seen - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 2 hours ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: It got down to -53 in Fairbanks this morning and didn't get warmer than -45 this afternoon. Alaska is hogging all the cold ! The all time record for mainland North America is something like -81 F set in the northern Yukon back in the 50's. The atmosphere doesn;t appear to allow it to get that cold in NA anymore. Edit: Actually -81.4 F back in 1947 at a place called Snag in the Yukon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 8 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: It's coming Met, Just hang in there a little longer! February into March just may be rocking!!! I think we will be rocking with or without the SSW. If we do get an SSW that will just mean a great month hopefully for us. I like Joes thinking about the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 7 minutes ago, cbmclean said: The all time record for mainland North America is something like -81 F set in the northern Yukon back in the 50's. The atmosphere doesn;t appear to allow it to get that cold in NA anymore. Edit: Actually -81.4 F back in 1947 at a place called Snag in the Yukon. Dang I could not imagine it being that cold. You would instantly freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Dang I could not imagine it being that cold. You would instantly freeze. I am a weather statistics aficionado with a special love of cold. If you are interested, the all time record for lowest surface temp measured on earth is -128.6 F at Vostok, Antarctica. The high plateau in the interior of Antarctica is far an away the coldest place int he world, beating the pants off of any place in the NH. There it gets down to -100 F regularly during the winter. -10 F is a warm summer's day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I am a weather statistics aficionado with a special love of cold. If you are interested, the all time record for lowest surface temp measured on earth is -128.6 F at Vostok, Antarctica. The high plateau in the interior of Antarctica is far an away the coldest place int he world, beating the pants off of any place in the NH. There it gets down to -100 F regularly during the winter. -10 F is a warm summer's day. Lol very cool. Very cool indeed. Antarctica houses some of the most extreme weather on earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Starting to get a vibe some of us are gonna score a winter storm before January ends. H5 is showing some potential for a phaser across se/gom post day 11. Want be suprised to see a long range model thumper within the next day or 2. My record digital snow storm for the season came from the gfs, 25 inches. Don't know if the Dgex can even top that with a wild run before winter winds down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 00z GFS has a more favorable axis for western ridge / eastern trough. It has 2 shortwaves dropping straight down the chimney out of Central Canada. It ends up dumping energy into the SW out past truncation, but that look would make things interesting around here in a hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 06z gfs shows snow possible 2nd of feb I know its at end of run but hopefull Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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