mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: Euro Control run has that Manitoba Mauler / Super Clipper look to it at day 11 (same look as Euro and GFS Op). If nothing else, the NC to WV skiing should improve next weekend into the following week Yay ! clippers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Yay ! clippers! You get thermal belt, warm bubbled down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: You get thermal belt, warm bubbled down there Lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 3 minutes ago, griteater said: You get thermal belt, warm bubbled down there Welcome to my winters, the new norm! Almost as bad as living in SE Wake , or Wilkesboro , or Jonesville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 2 hours ago, jshetley said: Yeah what a finish to that winter for 75% of us. The superstorm only gave my area around 3-4 inches of snow, but MANY of us were measuring snow in feet from that one. Measured 2 feet in my yard when that storm was over. South Asheville area between Asheville and Hendersonville. Started snowing Friday evening and didn't quit until Sunday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 43 minutes ago, griteater said: Kind of looks like we get a +PNA ridge spike for a few days, then a -EPO ridge spike. All depends on the details (ridge placement / trop PV placement / pattern longevity), but it's a pretty good look overall. Plenty of ways for it to fail/collapse though, lol We need to split the trop PV or really stretch the crap out of it if we want anything but a transient cool down. The trop PV is over the pole towards asia feeding wave after wave to the Pac which sets all this off next week. Models are hinting at the trop PV elongating but still over the pole with a piece getting closer to NA. GEPS probably had the best look at day 16, if we are playing hug your favorite cold/snowy model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 I think we're playing " it's still 16 days away"! Let the cold get here before we worry about how long it lasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 I see grit and mack's clipper on the 18z GFS at day 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 I don't know any other way to say this, so I'm just gonna go ahead and rip the bandaid off: Other than the clipper and a couple of cold, dry days, the 18z GFS was a complete and utter disasterous dumpster fire of a run, if you want a transition to a sustained cold and stormy pattern. The end of the run was atrocious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 12 minutes ago, FallsLake said: I see grit and mack's clipper on the 18z GFS at day 12. If I have to rely on a clipper for my snow, I'd rather we stay in the torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 12 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: I don't know any other way to say this, so I'm just gonna go ahead and rip the bandaid off: Other than the clipper and a couple of cold, dry days, the 18z GFS was a complete and utter disasterous dumpster fire of a run, if you want a transition to a sustained cold and stormy pattern. The end of the run was atrocious. Don't leave us now CR!! Funny, from the 18z run, there are 3 mega clipper analogs that dropped over 5 inches of snow at RDU. It's all we got for now with the pattern! GFS Ens run was decent, but yeah, a lot of NW flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 GFS has a bias of being too strong with the northern stream. Let's wait a week and see how it looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Relying on an operational run this far out is less accurate than ensemble averaging if I remember correctly.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 31 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: If I have to rely on a clipper for my snow, I'd rather we stay in the torch Don't you worry.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 18z GEFS had a smattering of snow in/around the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 38 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: I don't know any other way to say this, so I'm just gonna go ahead and rip the bandaid off: Other than the clipper and a couple of cold, dry days, the 18z GFS was a complete and utter disasterous dumpster fire of a run, if you want a transition to a sustained cold and stormy pattern. The end of the run was atrocious. Come on man, friends don't let friends look at 300+ hour op runs!! Brick probably doesn't understand , but you!? You should probably have a red tag , and your looking at GFS op end of run, snap out of it Pa... I mean Cold_Rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 SOI crash getting even better the next few days. Sure does want to pop back up though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 14 minutes ago, packbacker said: SOI crash getting even better the next few days. Sure does want to pop back up though. So I have learned alot about the AO, NAO, PNA MJO. How does the SOI affect us? Negative is good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 16 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Come on man, friends don't let friends look at 300+ hour op runs!! Brick probably doesn't understand , but you!? You should probably have a red tag , and your looking at GFS op end of run, snap out of it Pa... I mean Cold_Rain! Lol I couldn't give a fresh turd ferguson about what the 18z GFS shows! I just posted that cause there ain't nothing else going on. It'll be different again in a while. Grit, that clipper looks good. 5" of fluffy snow would be pretty awesome. It'll probably correct *gasp* north over the next 10 days, but hey, we finally have something to look at in model land. Ajr, you do indeed remember correctly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, cbmclean said: So I have learned alot about the AO, NAO, PNA MJO. How does the SOI affect us? Negative is good? Should help crank up the STJ. Get that revved up and get some cold in the pattern and we're rolling in the SE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Count me out with the whole mega clipper deal. If that's what we end up having to track at the end of the month, I just won't have enough eye rolls to last the month. It's the 18z gfs op, so toss. When the ensembles look like that....crap city. Here we go again...save us SSW!! Wonder if the SOI crash will do work even if it goes back up....from the tweet they seem to think it will. Huge piece of the puzzle going into February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 It got down to -53 in Fairbanks this morning and didn't get warmer than -45 this afternoon. Alaska is hogging all the cold ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 8 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: It got down to -53 in Fairbanks this morning and didn't get warmer than -45 this afternoon. Alaska is hogging all the cold ! That's impressive! But don't worry, we'll get our cold in April. It's a step down process! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: That's impressive! But don't worry, we'll get our cold in April. It's a step down process! That's a joke, but what's sad is it isn't. We've had such bad winters in the past but usually when it's too late, say mid March we always get cool/cold weather with crazy blocking that's just enough to make for a crappy cold spring, but no snow. There's got to be something to that, why we always get blocking in the spring and summer but never winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 9 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: That's a joke, but what's sad is it isn't. We've had such bad winters in the past but usually when it's too late, say mid March we always get cool/cold weather with crazy blocking that's just enough to make for a crappy cold spring, but no snow. There's got to be something to that, why we always get blocking in the spring and summer but never winter. We don't really have crappy, cold springs down here. I mean unless you consider highs in the 60s in April cold ? Actually I prefer it to be a little cooler than normal in the spring because above normal would mean pretty darn warm by the time we get to May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: We don't really have crappy, cold springs down here. I mean unless you consider highs in the 60s in April cold ? Actually I prefer it to be a little cooler than normal in the spring because above normal would mean pretty darn warm by the time we get to May. Looks like a Nino setting up for the summer, so Shetleys drought won't worsen! And next years winter will be rockin!! La nino+low solar minimum+wet summer+ SOI= party in the bathtub next winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 37 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: That's impressive! But don't worry, we'll get our cold in April. It's a step down process! I'll see your 18zgfs and raise you a 12z para-GFS !! Last frame, beautiful gulf storm, right off of New Orleans, bout to turn the corner...... Whammy, 540 over PA! Let's not worry about temps now, the track is money! Waiting on CMC ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 32 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: That's a joke, but what's sad is it isn't. We've had such bad winters in the past but usually when it's too late, say mid March we always get cool/cold weather with crazy blocking that's just enough to make for a crappy cold spring, but no snow. There's got to be something to that, why we always get blocking in the spring and summer but never winter. The best jokes always have a smidgen of truth in them. I do not know what it is about -NAOs and winter, but for some reason, they just can't occur in winter, although they have no trouble occurring in any other season, and for extended periods of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I'll see your 18zgfs and raise you a 12z para-GFS !! Last frame, beautiful gulf storm, right off of New Orleans, bout to turn the corner...... Whammy, 540 over PA! Let's not worry about temps now, the track is money! Waiting on CMC ! You need to fold! That low is headed to Cuba. Look at the massive positive tilt to the trough. Let's see what the paranormal Navgem says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: I do not know what it is about -NAOs and winter, but for some reason, they just can't occur in winter, although they have no trouble occurring in any other season, and for extended periods of time. To quote a self-professed philosopher (my carpenter) - "It is what it is". Damn does my wife hate to hear him say that, for obviou$ reasons LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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