BIG FROSTY Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 The Atmospheric Avenger Was good this morning, Anybody that's got WxBell should watch it... Great explanation of the evolving pattern! And he's got the maps to prove how the GFS is correcting east with the trough.............. Fun & Games Ahead Folks!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 1 hour ago, Jon said: Here's the change from the 18z GEFS 5-day mean Pack posted yesterday to compare versus the 06z run this morning same time period. The GFS is really struggling overall. The only thing it got right was the slight delay in the pattern change more to Wednesday of next week vs the initial Sunday that the Euro and EPS were showing 4-5 days ago. I'm not totally sure we can even give the GFS credit for that either, because the fact it missed the overall setup beyond the period was probably partially why it hit correctly on the delay. The GFS/GFES members also continues to try and break down the pattern at Day 15-16, meanwhile 24-48 hours later Day 13-14 it looks like the EPS and Day 15-16 the Pac jet is trying to break through again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Grit, et al, thanks for the thoughts! It's complicated, but unless we're seeing current drivers change or other drivers take over, it's going to be hard to buy a sustained winter pattern scenario. That said, the LR is looking pretty good, and I do think we at least get a one or two week period where we get a shot at something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 So here are the D10 ensembles (yes, we're talking 10 days now...not 15. Steps, folks, steps): They all pretty much line up (with the GEFS still a bit too far west with its ridge/trough placement). The ridge axis looks to be in a decent spot. Moving these forward through the end of their runs, the BN pattern remains in place (although I can't see the EPS after 240): EPS: GEPS: GEFS: The overall indexes continue to look poor, but the +PNA/-EPO shown, particularly on the EPS and GEPS put us in the game. In my experience, this pattern, without blocking, usually favors north and NW zones of the SE. Packbacker and I will be most likely watching wintry mix or rain changing to wintry mix, causing him to break out the hard stuff like Molson Ice, but we'll see. The MJO, however, is a different story. It looks to move into a very favorable state for cold in the east, across many model suites. Here are some examples: NCEP: UK: ECMWOFDFECMWLF: Hopefully, we can leverage that with some other background changes to get us planted in a real wintry pattern...not this pseudo, quasi, almost, kind of, half-hearted, jury rigged, duct taped mess we seem to always get ourselves into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Just wait and see for another week or so before we know for sure what type of pattern is going to show up. I'm looking for the PV to get south and east and it doesn't look like it is. I'm not sure we get into a real cold pattern that brings a good snow to the SE, like CR said, maybe mid-atlantic though. Just a bummer we NEVER have blocking to save our life. I wonder if we'll ever get that again?...... If we don't have blocking, that PV has got to migrate to Maine I think for us to have a chance like last time. At least a bit below normal will be better than toasting for two weeks straight...birds are starting come back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 10 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: Just wait and see for another week or so before we know for sure what type of pattern is going to show up. I'm looking for the PV to get south and east and it doesn't look like it is. I'm not sure we get into a real cold pattern that brings a good snow to the SE, like CR said, maybe mid-atlantic though. Just a bummer we NEVER have blocking to save our life. I wonder if we'll ever get that again?...... If we don't have blocking, that PV has got to migrate to Maine I think for us to have a chance like last time. At least a bit below normal will be better than toasting for two weeks straight...birds are starting come back. Every year recently, we've been hearing how awful the QBO is. It's too positive for the current ENSO state. It's too negative for the current GWO state. It's too neutral with the current solar flux. It's too positive with the amount mountain torque we're seeing. It's too negative while the magnetic poles are flipping. It's too neutral given the amount of wildebeest farting going on...etc. etc. etc. I swear, it almost makes me think that there's nothing else we should be looking at, given that this seems to be the one common variable that is screwing us up year in and year out and can never work itself into a favorable state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Every year recently, we've been hearing how awful the QBO is. It's too positive for the current ENSO state. It's too negative for the current GWO state. It's too neutral with the current solar flux. It's too positive with the amount mountain torque we're seeing. It's too negative while the magnetic poles are flipping. It's too neutral given the amount of wildebeest farting going on...etc. etc. etc. I swear, it almost makes me think that there's nothing else we should be looking at, given that this seems to be the one common variable that is screwing us up year in and year out and can never work itself into a favorable state. The QBO by my recollection has only been an issue 3 times in the last 8 years or so. I think 07-08 it was insanely negative, like -30 or -35 or so. I may be off on my year but I think it was that winter where the Pac Jet was on fire. 2-3 winters ago it was also an issue and now obviously this year. The -NAO issues I think have mostly stemmed from poor NATL SST patterns the last 4-5 years which may be partly due to a change to a cold AMO where sometimes the NAO is not as cooperative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 To move past this whole EPS v/s GEFS discussion..let's focus on what a "snowy" pattern would look like for us in Feb. Below is composite for some of our popular Feb nina snow storms 1 to 2 days prior to event. Ridge axis is just off the west coast with strong low right over the lakes. Interesting that in Feb we don't need that strong Greenland blocking nor a 50/50...though would love to have one in an ideal world. Cold is focused right over MN into heart of conus. If the EPS is correct hopefully it evolves the week or so after into something that could give snow chances. I think the GEFS is a little better look for snow event day 15 but I seem to be on an island thinking it's correct so I have to admit it's probably wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Just to compare day 15 of GEFS/EPS v/s Feb snow pattern up close. Maybe I was biased towards hoping the GEFS would be correct since it's a better snow pattern. Who knew...I still wouldn't mind torching until May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 We'll be going into the solar cycle minimum phase, probably beginning next winter. That will last 4 winters or so (in the minimum). -QBO and solar min is the best QBO/solar combo for blocking. So, during those 4 years, the QBO should be in the negative (easterly) phase once or twice. Ideally one of those years combines with an El Nino that isn't super strong. We haven't had an official mid winter SSW (sudden stratospheric warming) since 2013 which is a longer than normal time period. So it's just a been a bad stretch overall with AO/NAO blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 33 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The QBO by my recollection has only been an issue 3 times in the last 8 years or so. I think 07-08 it was insanely negative, like -30 or -35 or so. I may be off on my year but I think it was that winter where the Pac Jet was on fire. 2-3 winters ago it was also an issue and now obviously this year. The -NAO issues I think have mostly stemmed from poor NATL SST patterns the last 4-5 years which may be partly due to a change to a cold AMO where sometimes the NAO is not as cooperative. Thanks for the insight. The QBO has definitely come up much more in the last 3 or 4 winters than it did previously. Maybe that's because there's been a greater understanding of it. I don't know. But I can't recall any winter forecast or discussion where anybody has stated that the QBO is in a really great state for us, over the last few years. It's usually been the other way around. I thought last year it was an issue of keeping the strat vortex wound up...or at least inhibiting SSWs or something. Anyway, it's never favorable for us. Hopefully the NATL (or whatever drives blocking) will turn around at some point in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 The EPS ain't messing around when it comes to the strat...yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 40 minutes ago, packbacker said: The EPS ain't messing around when it comes to the strat...yikes. That's impressive. Hopefully we can reel that in and it won't fall through. For some reason these SSW are always tough to really get going to make a big difference in our sensible weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Yeah, the SSW discussion is always the last ditch hope of snow weenies everywhere, and they never seem to make much of an impact let alone show up. However the pattern doesn't look bad in 10 days without it, so that's good. If it does show up, maybe it keeps the Canadian/Alaskan ridging in place for a bit longer, that's probably the good bet. In the back of my mind of course I'm hoping the vortex blows up and we get a nice period of -AO/-NAO for a while. But I'm not holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Coolish and dry on the 12z GFS , fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 14 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Coolish and dry on the 12z GFS , fwiw I see a distinct pattern change to cold. 850's dropping to -10C is not just "coolish" Come on Mac.... you have better skills than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Don't want to get to far out ahead here but with the AMO cooling and the PDO cooling possibly as well, the results should be advantageous for more cold next winter. To go along with that, it appears we could be headed for a weak El Nino also this summer and the placement of the warmest stretch of water will largely determine how cool or cold it gets, all other things being equal. There are so many weather inducing factors involved it is impossible to accurately project that far in advance but some prleiminary signals are positive for us. This year seems to be headed for a close to normal temperature regime for much of the SE with the coldest period being later in the winter. Good signs are appearing for a cold Feb possibly extending even into March and the timing of any storms will be the key in our getting any snow storms or just some cold but liquid precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 10 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: I see a distinct pattern change to cold. 850's dropping to -10C is not just "coolish" Come on Mac.... you have better skills than that. I was just glancing at 2m temps. Saw mid/upper 40s/ 20s, nothing spectacular Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 For the 12z runs, GFS and Canadian Ens both show below normal 850 temps moving into the SE at day 10-11...here are the 10-15 day averaged maps for each. Maybe others can comment, but it seems like the warm AND cool periods haven't been delayed when the patterns have shown their hand on the ensembles. It's not a perfect pattern, but it's a below normal temp pattern at end of Jan into early Feb if it holds...have to let it play out as others have said. Keep it cold-ish now, worry about finding a storm later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 It cant snow if it isnt cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 7 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: It cant snow if it isnt cold. Exactly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 It can't cold rain, if it's warm! shout out to Rain_cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 The op euro is at the time frame of where the huge trough is carved out into the east and the west starts to pop a ridge. Not a bad look. Looks like we will be dealing with plenty of cold air according to the op euro which has follow suite with the eps. Also of note, the risk for severe weather will go up leading to this pattern change. A lot of moving parts. Don't sleep on that cutoff either. Should supply a lot of rainfall to the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 1 minute ago, Met1985 said: The op euro is at the time frame of where the bug trough is carved out into the east and the west starts to pop a ridge. Not a bad look. Looks like we will be dealing with plenty of cold air according to the op euro which has follow suite with the eps. Also of note, the risk for severe weather will go up leading to this pattern change. A lot of moving parts. Don't sleep on that cutoff either. Should supply a lot of rainfall to the area. And it looks like we are setting up for a split flow pattern. When southern California gets wet, we should be very interested in what will follow. Right now, the GFS suppresses one potential system... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 16 minutes ago, packfan98 said: And it looks like we are setting up for a split flow pattern. When southern California gets wet, we should be very interested in what will follow. Right now, the GFS suppresses one potential system... Yeah I saw that on the gfs. Not worried at all. As Queencitywx said we need the cold to get snow. No cold no snow. So we take what we can get. At this time the H5 is much more important than individual features in my opinion. We are still 10 days away from the pattern setting up to help out the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Still like days 14-16 on the GEFS...matches up fairly well with our Feb snow events composite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 20 minutes ago, packbacker said: Still like days 14-16 on the GEFS...matches up fairly well with our Feb snow events composite. Let's reel it in. I'll start the thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 The cold seems to be sloshing back to the conus with highest departure in the OH-V...always a plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 12 minutes ago, packbacker said: The cold seems to be sloshing back to the conus with highest departure in the OH-V...always a plus. Doesn't matter where the cold is in the US, it matters that it's in the US and not on the west coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Pack, gotta give you a lot of kudos for trying hard to make everybody on the board happy. Those Zimas must be doing the trick! And it's funny now that the GEPS went from this (0z): To this 12z): ...at the end of its run. Return of the SW trough? And now, it's the GEFS that looks better: Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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