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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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2 hours ago, packbacker said:

Weeklies just tweeted out.  Not sure that's the greatest look for the SE though but Met1985 says they should be trusted.

 

We have seen worst. We are in worst. Probably losing a bit of the blocking in the NAO region has something to do with it. But I still like the look. It's not that bad. Maybe it not being as cold can help us get a system to run south. I mean the GEFS has flip flopped so much I'm not sure I would really trust one run of that ensemble group.

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2 hours ago, packbacker said:

Stop trolling...your better then that, or maybe not.  I would explain to you why the GEFS was showing what it was showing but not sure your smart enough to understand.  I posted the LR ensemble means, we will see who wins over the next few days.  

EPS - Pac low, stout +PNA

GEFS - Pac ridge building poleward and retrograding trough pulled back west.

I haven't said a word to you, you came after me, take your snickers and shove it up your....

 

Really with this post? You hug one or two models and that's it. This comment was off against Jon and shoot you are throwing me under the bus! I'm not even mad. It is what it is. I like the consistency of the EPS currently. Yes it could change but, you have to admit the GEFS has trended towards the EPS especially today. Yes there is a need for caution for good reason this year and basically every year down here lol. 

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So I have a question:  What is it about the background state of the atmosphere (in terms of what has been driving the pattern this winter), if anything at all, that has changed or is changing in such a way so as to favor any sustained implementation of a colder, stormier pattern in the east than what we have seen so far?  That is the thing I think we need to understand before embracing a particular model set, regardless of what it's showing or how consistently it might be showing it.

I want to believe that we'll lock into a better pattern in Feb.  But why would we?  Because the Weeklies have been consistently showing it?  Because the EPS looks good for a few days toward the end of its run?

We have had a repeating tendency for a trough in the west, a strong PAC jet, and a SER, which has resulted in another warm winter in the east thus far. Now, the SER has been over-modeled at times.  We've seen extended modeled droughts give way to rainy periods.  And some models were late to the party with the cold snap we had the first week of this month.  We are in a fading weak Nina/cold neutral regime that is acting like a significant Nina episode.  What has been driving this?  And has that changed?

Maybe there's a significant lag as Nina fades.  Maybe the QBO is driving.  Maybe the strat is driving.  What else?

So, which of these drivers are changing that will support more than a random and brief cold period?  Will the strat vortex get disrupted and displaced?  Is the QBO diminishing?  Is Nina losing steam altering the forcing?  Is it the MJO?

I believe we will have a favorable period in Feb, but as much as I'd like to think the EPS, the Weeklies, the GEPS, etc. are on to something more substantial, it's hard to imagine a good pattern locking in without more solidly answering the above.

From what I've read the last couple of days, the help may come from the strat and/or the MJO.  But I do not know how accurate those forecasts are.

I know that some of us are optimistic by default and others are cynical by default.  And when we have such warm and boring periods where we're constantly waiting on a change to come, tolerance for the other viewpoint gets a little stretched.  But at the end of the day, neither optimism or cynicism creates a snowstorm in the SE.  Nor does optimistic or pessimistic model output.

So, what, other than long range model data, should give us hope of a better pattern to come or compel us to pack up our sleds for the season?

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2 hours ago, packbacker said:

Stop trolling...your better then that, or maybe not.  I would explain to you why the GEFS was showing what it was showing but not sure your smart enough to understand.  I posted the LR ensemble means, we will see who wins over the next few days.  

EPS - Pac low, stout +PNA

GEFS - Pac ridge building poleward and retrograding trough pulled back west.

I haven't said a word to you, you came after me, take your snickers and shove it up your....

 

Really?? What are you thinking? Just relax and breathe. Repeat after me......"the cold is not my enemy"

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^ Cold Rain - those are heavy questions.  For starters, the tropical convection pattern going back to October is one that very much resembles a La Nina.  Lack of convection near the dateline (+OLR) and above normal convection centered along 120E (-OLR) as seen in the 1st image below.  El Nino would be the exact opposite of this.  So the background state with this +QBO favors a North Pac high, troughing over the N Rockies, and a SER.  From what I've seen and read from folks like HM, when the Pac jet extends this winter, we go into a +EPO pattern.  When the Pac jet backs off from that extension, we start to see ridging build into the vicinity of AK (-EPO).  This week we are seeing a big jet extension (2nd image).  It is expected to retract toward the end of the month, allowing for -EPO and/or +PNA ridging.  I'm with you regarding Feb, I don't really have much in the way of confidence that a colder period would stick around for a while given the background state, and how variable the pattern has been this winter.  Strat vortex is getting weakened, but who knows there.  Even if we were to get an official SSW, those don't tend to bring cold to the E U.S. in La Ninas like they do in El Ninos.  AO and NAO don't look promising.  Any cold we see is likely going to come from the Pac pattern. 

r7qigy.gif 

2ebere8.gif

 

One tweet of note for Feb from Mike Ventrice -

 

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15 minutes ago, griteater said:

^ Cold Rain - those are heavy questions.  For starters, the tropical convection pattern going back to October is one that very much resembles a La Nina.  Lack of convection near the dateline (+OLR) and above normal convection centered along 120E (-OLR) as seen in the 1st image below.  El Nino would be the exact opposite of this.  So the background state with this +QBO favors a North Pac high, troughing over the N Rockies, and a SER.  From what I've seen and read from folks like HM, when the Pac jet extends this winter, we go into a +EPO pattern.  When the Pac jet backs off from that extension, we start to see ridging build into the vicinity of AK (-EPO).  This week we are seeing a big jet extension (2nd image).  It is expected to retract toward the end of the month, allowing for -EPO and/or +PNA ridging.  I'm with you regarding Feb, I don't really have much in the way of confidence that a colder period would stick around for a while given the background state, and how variable the pattern has been this winter.  Strat vortex is getting weakened, but who knows there.  Even if we were to get an official SSW, those don't tend to bring cold to the E U.S. in La Ninas like they do in El Ninos.  AO and NAO don't look promising.  Any cold we see is likely going to come from the Pac pattern. 

r7qigy.gif 

2ebere8.gif

 

One tweet of note for Feb from Mike Ventrice -

 

LR GEFS still has forcing 120E but is showing some forcing at 160W so maybe it does support a meandering PAC low and stronger ridge.  I don't know but I don't think we see a stout +PNA except transient.  Wish I had the below from the EPS. 

IMG_3972.PNG

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I'm cool with a "brief/transient/short-lived" shot of a good pattern if it produces a winter storm. ;) Even if it doesn't, it'll be nice to have a break from these 50s-70s throughout the board.

I don't see the MJO being discussed much amidst this pattern change talk. If we get the MJO in phases 1-8-7, I think that will be a huge driver in our pattern. It's been said many times, we can score without Atlantic help. Hell, a lot of us just did 9-10 days ago. Just give me a ridge out west with a decent cold press and perfect timing between an exiting system (that'd become a 50/50 low) with a decent HP building in behind it and a storm rolling underneath and I'll take my chances.

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9 minutes ago, packbacker said:

LR GEFS still has forcing 120E but is showing some forcing at 160W so maybe it does support a meandering PAC low and stronger ridge.  I don't know but I don't think we see a stout +PNA except transient.  Wish I had the below from the EPS. 

Ventrice has it here.  I just don't know what to think of the VP movement though.  Looking at his chart, it would seem that the VP comes right back around to 120E around the 2nd week of Feb which I would think takes us right into a typical Nina pattern....but then the other tweet from Ventrice says Feb arctic shots are favored 3-6 weeks after the MJO passes through W Hem.  So he seems to be favoring arctic shots for a good bit of Feb.

 

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20 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Pack needs a Bud Light.  These winters are getting to me... need to start hitting the heavy stuff.  

Need to find a new winter hobby.

 

 

Lol iv started drinking more this winter.... lol its all good bud. No harm no foul. Things get heated. This has been a long season and a long year. Looking at the 00Z it actually looks better with the trough and has an interesting piece of energy on the trough before truncation.

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9 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Lol iv started drinking more this winter.... lol its all good bud. No harm no foul. Things get heated. This has been a long season and a long year. Looking at the 00Z it actually looks better with the trough and has an interesting piece of energy on the trough before truncation.

GFS run looks really good Met.  Prolonged mtn snow showers next weekend (28th), then it goes into split flow out west with cold in the east....and a fantasy gulf low winter storm to kick off Feb.  We are about to approach the fantasy storm uptick phase of the tracking cycle, lol

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2 minutes ago, griteater said:

GFS run looks really good Met.  Prolonged mtn snow showers next weekend, then it goes into split flow out west with cold in the east....and a fantasy gulf low winter storm to kick off Feb.  We are about to approach the fantasy storm uptick phase of the tracking cycle, lol

I was just looking at that. I nice trough with a pretty good supply of cold air. Several impulses from the north and the the southern jet starts screaming under the ridge out west and underived the trough on the East. A very nice look and probably a look we really have not seen in awhile. Today's runs of the gfs have been improving. 

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Just now, mackerel_sky said:

Starting what day from now!? Cold after next weekend on out?

I'm not even going to try to guess how long or dates. The trough starts to set up right before hour 240 and that's really as far as I'm going to speculate. It's a start as least in the right direction. The split flow sets up later on in the run.

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8 minutes ago, Jon said:

GEFS caving, again. It's finding our little blue friend out in the pacific, aligning more with EPS and other modeling. 

 

IMG_5990.PNG

Is that the plus pna and negative epo in tandem?  We don't get crap in the ao and nao regions but the Pacific is very capable of driving the pattern and for the good. It just means storms will be in and out.

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