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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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10 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

12z eps was a picture of beauty last night. Trough in the east, west coast ridge. Complete opposite of gefs, the yo yo model. Don't get played.

I'll wait and see what they have the next few runs.................... ;)

JB not buying trough out west in long range, He sees GFS can't dismiss it, but he's not buying it! Euro and Canadian showing same pattern for a cold east.

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I have a feeling we are back to the 3-4 month warm period, and if your chasing this patter change you will continue to be hurt, cause I was through the month of October and November, just go with the warm models cause they are usually right. A lot of people don't want to hear this I know but it is what it is.


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39 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

I'm glad the MA is looking good, cause the 12z GFS , was purely abysmal! Temp anomalies pretty much bleed red , the whole run and strengthen over the East by the last frame, which takes us to the 31st! Delayed , but not denied!! It's coming , I promise! Timothy Clown, might be right! #PATTERNCHANGEISREAL

#WHERESBRICK #SAVEBRICK

Timothy, might be right? I have to say he's persistent once he locks in on a forecast!! :lmao:

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Fishel, DT, and others finally coming around to my idea if not flat out stealing some of my summaries. I said big precip maker, severe, strong pattern changing storm, and nothing to track until the second week of Feb or later.

DT appears to be on it with the New England wintry chances that will help us during late season CAD for freezing rain chances and possibly wet snow. Need the High parked over this fresh snow cover to bleed down and slam its beans against the Appalachian Mountains. (No go for Columbia and Atlanta Metros).

Check back in about 4-5 weeks please.

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7 minutes ago, Timothy Clyde said:

Fishel, DT, and others finally coming around to my idea if not flat out stealing some of my summaries. I said big precip maker, severe, strong pattern changing storm, and nothing to track until the second week of Feb or later.

DT appears to be on it with the New England wintry chances that will help us during late season CAD for freezing rain chances and possibly wet snow. Need the High parked over this fresh snow cover to bleed down and slam its beans against the Appalachian Mountains. (No go for Columbia and Atlanta Metros).

Check back in about 4-5 weeks please.

Definitely Wilkes now! The twisted thoughts that real forecasters use his thoughts! Delusional

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Fishel, DT, and others finally coming around to my idea if not flat out stealing some of my summaries. I said big precip maker, severe, strong pattern changing storm, and nothing to track until the second week of Feb or later.

DT appears to be on it with the New England wintry chances that will help us during late season CAD for freezing rain chances and possibly wet snow. Need the High parked over this fresh snow cover to bleed down and slam its beans against the Appalachian Mountains. (No go for Columbia and Atlanta Metros).

Check back in about 4-5 weeks please.


lol 4-5 weeks . we will be rolling into spring by then

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43 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Model wars....EPS and GEPS show a nice PAC low with west coast ridge and eastern trough.  GEFS says what PAC low...and we get buried trough in west. What did we learn last week....always hug the warmest model.  

 

IMG_3948.PNG

IMG_3949.PNG

Wasn't the GFS the one consistently showing the most snow here with the last storm?

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16 minutes ago, Timothy Clyde said:

Fishel, DT, and others finally coming around to my idea if not flat out stealing some of my summaries. I said big precip maker, severe, strong pattern changing storm, and nothing to track until the second week of Feb or later.

DT appears to be on it with the New England wintry chances that will help us during late season CAD for freezing rain chances and possibly wet snow. Need the High parked over this fresh snow cover to bleed down and slam its beans against the Appalachian Mountains. (No go for Columbia and Atlanta Metros).

Check back in about 4-5 weeks please.

So--TIMMY...For several posts now you seem to keep harping on this "...second week of Feb or later."  Are you defining that as >2/14?

image180.png

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4 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

It was still a decent storm here. More sleet than advertised, but the roads were awful for a couple of days.

It was a complete let-down.  Yeah you can go with the "at least something frozen fell from the sky and made the roads a mess" meme, but compared to what it looked like we were going to get just 12 hours earlier (or even the night of, depending on your model of choice -- and there were many to choose from) it was an utter disappointment.

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1 hour ago, BIG FROSTY said:

I'll wait and see what they have the next few runs.................... ;)

JB not buying trough out west in long range, He sees GFS can't dismiss it, but he's not buying it! Euro and Canadian showing same pattern for a cold east.

Yeah the GEFS is on its own kinda with the warm East and cold West. I like the upcoming time frame. EPS and weeklies FTW.

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3 minutes ago, Timothy Clyde said:

Or equal too minus a day or two...I certainly don't buy the first week of February!

Fair enough, but I don't predict the cold regime setting in by 28th with no storm potential until 2 weeks later.  Matter of fact I more expect a pattern relax setting in by mid-late Feb.  Of course we've been known the get storms in that set-up as well.  Dismissing the likelihood to go 2 whole weeks from the cold onset without a storm would be surprising and no one is predicting the cold getting delayed until 2/5-6 that I can see.

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Nothing too scary near the end of the 12z GEFS.  Not an ideal pattern, but certainly not a torchy look.  And the 12z GEPS continues its trend of a +PNA, starting in the mid-late 200s and keeping it in place through the balance of the run.  Nice trough in the east.  The NAO looks positive on both models.

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2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Nothing too scary near the end of the 12z GEFS.  Not an ideal pattern, but certainly not a torchy look.  And the 12z GEPS continues its trend of a +PNA, starting in the mid-late 200s and keeping it in place through the balance of the run.  Nice trough in the east.  The NAO looks positive on both models.

The Euro op still looks kind of wonky at day 10, but definitely not cold! That big low or cutoff over the lakes does drag 0 degree 850s to the western Carolinas, but not sure if there would be precip, but looks downslopey, to me!?

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12 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

The Euro op still looks kind of wonky at day 10, but definitely not cold! That big low or cutoff over the lakes does drag 0 degree 850s to the western Carolinas, but not sure if there would be precip, but looks downslopey, to me!?

The problem with the EURO OP is that is only goes out to hour 240. That's why the EPS is important.

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I guess folks won't be discounting the NAM so quick anymore after the last dud. As it's been said on here before the smart thing to do is go with the warmest model and the one showing the least amount of snow. Or you can go with what the the GFS and Euro say and just move the rain/snow line about 50-75 miles NW.

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