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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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some good looking signs ahead as we get close to late month with the possible pattern flip. The wild card looks to be the PNA at this point m of course we've been without one all season so far so who knows if we ever establish a positive one

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49 minutes ago, Timothy Clyde said:

Models are often way too fast...I don't think the end of January will be favorable for winter weather. I think JB may be talking for areas way north of the S/E. For us tho, doesn't look like we have a rats ass of a chance until the second or third week of February to start tracking something wintry.

Keep us posted

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1 hour ago, Timothy Clyde said:

Models are often way too fast...I don't think the end of January will be favorable for winter weather. I think JB may be talking for areas way north of the S/E. For us tho, doesn't look like we have a rats ass of a chance until the second or third week of February to start tracking something wintry.

LOL... Glad you didn't go out on a limb with a forecast!

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3 hours ago, Timothy Clyde said:

Models are often way too fast...I don't think the end of January will be favorable for winter weather. I think JB may be talking for areas way north of the S/E. For us tho, doesn't look like we have a rats ass of a chance until the second or third week of February to start tracking something wintry.

What actual data do you have to back this up. You busted during your absurd call in the storm thread and you will bust hard this time also. Obviously you don't know how patterns work.

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8 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

We need a homemade snow map to confirm.

lol. That would def. confirm 100% :lmao:     Winter coming back strong and maybe long end of January-March possibly!!!  JB/LC Robert etc...........  A ;ot feel good about lat month through part of March. We'll see how Wilkesdud does with his forecast..................... Don't know who to trust Pro Mets or Wilkesdud??? :unsure:

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25 minutes ago, westmc9th said:

Anyone have a link to historical phases of the MJO? I'd like to see how it compares during some of our bigger storms of the past. 

MJO Index back to 1974 - http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/rmm.74toRealtime.txt

MJO on Phase Space Chart back to 1975 (just change the year in the URL...to see December on the chart, enter '10' instead of '01' which will give the 90 day chart for Oct-Dec) - http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/197501.phase.90days.gif 

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47 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

HM tweeted something, something, something Modoki.  I know that Modoki is an El Nino phase that is conducive for winter weather in the SE, so perhaps it's a good sign?  Anybody want to translate the rest I'd appreciate it...

Modoki El Nino is great.  For La Nina / Cool ENSO, a Modoki (or Central Pacific) signature favors a +NAO (which fits well with this winter so far).  An East Pacific Cool ENSO favors a -NAO.  There is a paper that covers this topic.  Outside of that, I haven't seen other strong correlations related to the Nina base/placement.

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4 minutes ago, griteater said:

Modoki El Nino is great.  For La Nina / Cool ENSO, a Modoki (or Central Pacific) signature favors a +NAO (which fits well with this winter so far).  An East Pacific Cool ENSO favors a -NAO.  There is a paper that covers this topic.  Outside of that, I haven't seen other strong correlations related to the Nina base/placement.

Ah, ok, not so much then thanks. 

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Think there's potential to get more stj involved with next cold press when we get a pattern change late Jan into Feb. That would be a double blessing cause it would increase opportunities for more chances at frozen and help pump up water tables across se. This is just from reading other more knowledgeable pattern recognition guys.

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Much like the -EPO drove our last winter chance, it's the +PNA that will do so next with a favorable setup coming in and around Jan 26-27th and forward. Any model showing favorable blocking should be scrutinized as this has never actually been a true block or sustained, with the ECMWF having a large bias towards a -NAO. For now, we're possibly looking at another round two of borderline temps and a close call for our next event, and that just might be how this winter plays out. It's increasingly likely, that without a large sustained -AO and absent of a SSW (which also the GFS continues to hint at but never comes to fruition), we're likely looking at a small window of opportunity. It's interesting to look back on the pattern thread previous to this one and seeing people cancel Jan early....same players cancelling Feb. I'd caution folks not trusting this late Jan-Early Feb signal, I'm actually more optimistic about this one than the last...this is more or less where climo indicates we get a decent shot at cold + stormy. Timing will be everything here, and since we're decently getting in range I suspect another round of fantasy storms, maybe within the next few days, as the models start pumping the +PNA and spitting out shortwaves.

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Would be nice if we could get a cold blast that didn't have to start out in the Western US! That's what the GFS is hinting at, long term, but I guess that's how it's gonna have to be this winter. On a happier note, there are some busts on the snowier side, just not around here! Portland was supposed to get 6" of snow last night on the upper end of their forecast, per their NWS, ended up with 9-14"+! Congrats to them, I think they might be ahead of BOS and NYC for seasonal totals

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14 minutes ago, Jon said:

Much like the -EPO drove our last winter chance, it's the +PNA that will do so next with a favorable setup coming in and around Jan 26-27th and forward. Any model showing favorable blocking should be scrutinized as this has never actually been a true block or sustained, with the ECMWF having a large bias towards a -NAO. For now, we're possibly looking at another round two of borderline temps and a close call for our next event, and that just might be how this winter plays out. It's increasingly likely, that without a large sustained -AO and absent of a SSW (which also the GFS continues to hint at but never comes to fruition), we're likely looking at a small window of opportunity. It's interesting to look back on the pattern thread previous to this one and seeing people cancel Jan early....same players cancelling Feb. I'd caution folks not trusting this late Jan-Early Feb signal, I'm actually more optimistic about this one than the last...this is more or less where climo indicates we get a decent shot at cold + stormy. Timing will be everything here, and since we're decently getting in range I suspect another round of fantasy storms, maybe within the next few days, as the models start pumping the +PNA and spitting out shortwaves.

We got 5 days of BN for Jan in what will be overwhelming torch otherwise.  So yeah, I agree, more of the same for Feb, small window.

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1 hour ago, packbacker said:

We got 5 days of BN for Jan in what will be overwhelming torch otherwise.  So yeah, I agree, more of the same for Feb, small window.

Yeah, long-term widespread cold isn't a possibility. We could still have a good winter ~average snowfall, just need timing on our side. Torch or not in between events, it's a heck of a lot better than last year IMO.

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3 minutes ago, Jon said:

Yeah, long-term widespread cold isn't a possibility. We could still have a good winter ~average snowfall, just need timing on our side. Torch or not in between events, it's a heck of a lot better than last year IMO.

This winter is getting progressively warmer...typical Nina.  I think Feb could be really ugly and thus timing won't have anything to do with it.   I imagine if I plotted the Feb's of Nina's that were AN in the SE for Dec/Jan it wouldn't be pretty.  We had our chance at a snowy Nina...

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24 minutes ago, packbacker said:

This winter is getting progressively warmer...typical Nina.  I think Feb could be really ugly and thus timing won't have anything to do with it.   I imagine if I plotted the Feb's of Nina's that were AN in the SE for Dec/Jan it wouldn't be pretty.  We had our chance at a snowy Nina...

Wasn't the winter of 2010-11 a La Nina year?  That was one of the best years for cold and snow in recent memory around here.

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12Z EPS mean has a cold and stormy look at the end of the run, first time it's shown this. Cold bleeding east from Central US, with a block over the top in hudson Bay, through centered over TN...big firs step, but Day 15 12z Jan 26th...about the time I expect our first look.

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39 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Wasn't the winter of 2010-11 a La Nina year?  That was one of the best years for cold and snow in recent memory around here.

Yes it was but somehow we had a great -NAO in place to bring in the cold and snow. We haven't seen sustained blocking like that since then. Hopefully that trend will change soon.

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