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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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We will revisit this soon...weeklies will back off that ridiculous modeled pattern for Feb.   #CFSv2FTW #LOLWeeklies  #NinaSER

Only thing the weeklies have correct is a warm next 3 weeks  #puntJan


CFS was showing entire US torch up until Dec 25th for Jan.
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6 minutes ago, Jon said:


CFS was showing entire US torch up until Dec 25th for Jan.

Yep go back and read even Dec 26 and then it started showing up, cold press, the overruning. Tracked this last storm or 2 waves for 10 days. So keep looking and out of the blue , presto it'll start showing up. Canadian ens throw a bone today, but don't count on it being there next run OR maybe it shows up another ens. 

And yes the past 3 days have been amazing. Dread crossing the freezing mark tommorow  for the first time since Friday night.

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10 hours ago, Wow said:

No matter how this winter turns out, these past 3 days have been awesome with minimal snow melt.  Massive icecycles have formed on the gutters. 

Day 4 and still driveways are covered, ice cycles are still growing and the sledding has been awesome! Hoping to make a snowman today has the snow begins to melt some and become packable. 

 

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We'll If I was retired like Burns and had his money I'd take a vacation this week to Lake Tahoe after my snow melted out of the back yard.

Blizzard warnings and only 8 feet of snow forecasted per radio. 

Seems west coast is making up for the past decade worth of droughts this winter. What happens when you have a trough on your side of the conus.

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Except for a few years in the late 1970's, we almost always have a January thaw of 1-2 weeks before winter comes back in. Some years the winter never really comes back in late Jan-Feb but they are the exception rather than the rule. The Euro shows a trough setting up over the East for the first 3 weeks of Febuary so let's see if that holds.

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Indices starting to come around (a little):

AO - Looks to fall sharply to neutral go back a little positive and then negative in the LR

NAO - looks to fall to neutral or slightly negative in the LR

PNA - Looks to go to +1 positive and now stay positive in the LR

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

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18 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Webber has a good write up today about pattern change last week of month:


[Image: eps_z500a_noram_61-1024x768.png]

[Image: gefs_z500a_noram_61-1024x768.png]
 

What did he say?   His winter forecast is a blowtorch for Feb.  The global ensembles are showing what the weeklies first step was....the Canada ridge retrograde west to pop the west coast ridge and force aleutian low with trough in east.  Or does it collapse and we go back to the dominate pattern so far this winter....-PNA with SER. I know which way I am leaning.    Regardless a shot of atleast couple days BN end of Jan. 

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13 minutes ago, packbacker said:

What did he say?   His winter forecast is a blowtorch for Feb.  The global ensembles are showing what the weeklies first step was....the Canada ridge retrograde west to pop the west coast ridge and force aleutian low with trough in east.  Or does it collapse and we go back to the dominate pattern so far this winter....-PNA with SER. I know which way I am leaning.    Regardless a shot of atleast couple days BN end of Jan. 

Here's his post on southernwx.com

Most guidance is definitely throwing bit hints that we'll probably see a huge change of pace with this pattern in the last week of the month. This big vortex over Alaska will likely be temporary given the very unfavorable QBO/ENSO/Solar background, and I expect the North Pacific to undergo a major reshuffling in week 2-3... In doing so, the Pacific jet will begin to undercut the ridge over the eastern US, leading to an all too familiar, El Nino configuration over North America with a strong subtropical jet roaring underneath a big blocking ridge over the Hudson Bay and southeastern Canada. 

The real question from here will be if this ridge over the Hudson Bay/SE Canada can gain enough amplitude and latitude to begin retrograding westward towards the Canadian Rockies (& force a +PNA), remain quasi-stationary &/or continue east and dissipate over the North Atlantic/Greenland... We should probably have our answer to the latter question sometime next week...

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2 minutes ago, packfan98 said:

Here's his post on southernwx.com

Most guidance is definitely throwing bit hints that we'll probably see a huge change of pace with this pattern in the last week of the month. This big vortex over Alaska will likely be temporary given the very unfavorable QBO/ENSO/Solar background, and I expect the North Pacific to undergo a major reshuffling in week 2-3... In doing so, the Pacific jet will begin to undercut the ridge over the eastern US, leading to an all too familiar, El Nino configuration over North America with a strong subtropical jet roaring underneath a big blocking ridge over the Hudson Bay and southeastern Canada. 

The real question from here will be if this ridge over the Hudson Bay/SE Canada can gain enough amplitude and latitude to begin retrograding westward towards the Canadian Rockies (& force a +PNA), remain quasi-stationary &/or continue east and dissipate over the North Atlantic/Greenland... We should probably have our answer to the latter question sometime next week...

Thanks...didn't know he posted anymore and never heard of that forum.  If I go there I assume I will see the usuals including RainCold!

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12 minutes ago, packfan98 said:

Here's his post on southernwx.com

Most guidance is definitely throwing bit hints that we'll probably see a huge change of pace with this pattern in the last week of the month. This big vortex over Alaska will likely be temporary given the very unfavorable QBO/ENSO/Solar background, and I expect the North Pacific to undergo a major reshuffling in week 2-3... In doing so, the Pacific jet will begin to undercut the ridge over the eastern US, leading to an all too familiar, El Nino configuration over North America with a strong subtropical jet roaring underneath a big blocking ridge over the Hudson Bay and southeastern Canada. 

The real question from here will be if this ridge over the Hudson Bay/SE Canada can gain enough amplitude and latitude to begin retrograding westward towards the Canadian Rockies (& force a +PNA), remain quasi-stationary &/or continue east and dissipate over the North Atlantic/Greenland... We should probably have our answer to the latter question sometime next week...

Will and Scott had mentioned some of this in the NE thread. I don't have wxbell this year (didn't want to jinx us) so I don't have the 11-15 euro ensembles but the gefs and cmc ensembles show this. 

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Throwing out a few sources that I like for long range stuff...these guys go beyond model interpretation and use things like mountain torque, global wind oscillation, atmospheric angular momentum, tropical forcing, etc. as basis for their ideas.  Also, they are unbiased regarding cold/warm ideas.

Anthony Masiello (@antmasiello on Twitter) - most are aware of Anthony (former Met poster on here as 'HM')

Poster by the name of 'Phil' on the theweatherforums.com - I literally go to this forum, look up his name, and look up his posting activity for the day to see if he's posted any long range thoughts (go to 'Find Content'>'Only Posts' to see a longer history of his posts).  He lives in the DC area but posts on that forum which is a forum with focus in the Pac NW.  One of his recent posts "The +EPO/US torch regime will break down in late January, FWIW.  Eurasian wavetrain (seasonal wave changes and modest alterations to the convective/WAF base) reorganizes --> sends surf/wave amplification zone into NPAC --> eventually waves break poleward and (Pac) blocking returns. The weaker the PV when it happens, the more amplification/self substance that'll occur."

David Gold (@dgoldwx2112) - a couple of his recent tweets...

"The North Pacific jet predicted by most solutions for end of 6-10d puts to shame anything we had during last year's strong El Nino event"
"A GWO 8-1 transition is likely thereafter, causing said jet to collapse and could lead to more Alaska blocking"

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34 minutes ago, griteater said:

Throwing out a few sources that I like for long range stuff...these guys go beyond model interpretation and use things like mountain torque, global wind oscillation, atmospheric angular momentum, tropical forcing, etc. as basis for their ideas.  Also, they are unbiased regarding cold/warm ideas.

Anthony Masiello (@antmasiello on Twitter) - most are aware of Anthony (former Met poster on here as 'HM')

Poster by the name of 'Phil' on the theweatherforums.com - I literally go to this forum, look up his name, and look up his posting activity for the day to see if he's posted any long range thoughts (go to 'Find Content'>'Only Posts' to see a longer history of his posts).  He lives in the DC area but posts on that forum which is a forum with focus in the Pac NW.  One of his recent posts "The +EPO/US torch regime will break down in late January, FWIW.  Eurasian wavetrain (seasonal wave changes and modest alterations to the convective/WAF base) reorganizes --> sends surf/wave amplification zone into NPAC --> eventually waves break poleward and (Pac) blocking returns. The weaker the PV when it happens, the more amplification/self substance that'll occur."

David Gold (@dgoldwx2112) - a couple of his recent tweets...

"The North Pacific jet predicted by most solutions for end of 6-10d puts to shame anything we had during last year's strong El Nino event"
"A GWO 8-1 transition is likely thereafter, causing said jet to collapse and could lead to more Alaska blocking"

Hm is a solid poster as well as Scott and Will. When they talk it's time to listen.

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2 hours ago, packfan98 said:

Here's his post on southernwx.com

Most guidance is definitely throwing bit hints that we'll probably see a huge change of pace with this pattern in the last week of the month. This big vortex over Alaska will likely be temporary given the very unfavorable QBO/ENSO/Solar background, and I expect the North Pacific to undergo a major reshuffling in week 2-3... In doing so, the Pacific jet will begin to undercut the ridge over the eastern US, leading to an all too familiar, El Nino configuration over North America with a strong subtropical jet roaring underneath a big blocking ridge over the Hudson Bay and southeastern Canada. 

The real question from here will be if this ridge over the Hudson Bay/SE Canada can gain enough amplitude and latitude to begin retrograding westward towards the Canadian Rockies (& force a +PNA), remain quasi-stationary &/or continue east and dissipate over the North Atlantic/Greenland... We should probably have our answer to the latter question sometime next week...

Well that just sounds great! Cold and moisture together is always a plus.  The trick I think is as he mentioned, will we actually get true blocking, or will it weaken and just turn into Atlantic ridging off the coast, which we probably would do better without.  That's what happened to this storm, but many still scored. The ensembles are hinting at a +PNA / -NAO in the long range, so it's nice to hear that they are meshing with other long range synoptics that I really don't understand. 10-14 days will be here before we know it. 

 

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