Cold Rain Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 19 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: He's been plowing! so he's doing good..... Of course it is the GFS what else should we expect??? Did you get any snow? About 3/4" zr + ip + sn- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: About 3/4" zr + ip + sn- Wow, WHAT A BUST.... I hate that man, You deserve a big snow, all that chasing you do!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Weenie ice storm at hour ~150-198 on the 18z GFS... Possible this will trend southward in our favor? Not likely as far as I know, but its something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 18 hours ago, tarheelwx said: 00z GFS has an interesting look for next weekend in the CAD regions - 1040 hp over SE Canada with some moisture moving through. Doesn't look great, but the players seem to be there. TW 18z gfs is looking a bit ominous. Ducks on the pond for next weekend. Wow that's a big and strong HP TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Let's see if we can get in one of these weekly winter weather repeat patterns for a few weeks. Seen it in times past. Next weekend could throw a suprise right after a very brief thaw mid to late week. Pattern is progressive and one big plus we have is lot of HP'S moving in and out of the ne. Think we have a chance to time one or two more opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: 18z gfs is looking a bit ominous. Ducks on the pond for next weekend. Wow that's a big and strong HP TW Who's staying up for the euro? And more importantly who's making the thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Funny thing about that potential system next weekend is if something is going to trend colder and even end up colder(at game time), it will be a CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Who's staying up for the euro? And more importantly who's making the thread? lol, you do the PBP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Did anyone look at the 12z Euro Ensemble mean? Looks interesting, at least on the crappy maps. Check this out. http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/medium/ensemble-mean-and-spread-four-standard-parameters?time=2017010712,168,2017011412¶meter=MSLP&area=North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Yes, we're going to warm after mid week but this winter has featured a pattern which hasn't locked in and I expect this to continue. BIG high pressure over the NE US keeps showing up next weekend on guidance. While I'm not expecting much in the way of winter weather, it just shows that even in a crappy pattern, cold weather can happen and even the outside chance of winter precip. I DO think we'll have several more periods this winter of winter weather for the SE. There are some signs in the long term guidance of a MUCH better pattern by late month. BTW, it's only Jan 7th....long, long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, GreensboroWx said: There are some signs in the long term guidance of a MUCH better pattern by late month. Agree wholeheartedly! I'm looking at about 2/3 - 2/5 as a pivot for about 15 days with a lot of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 For the sake of my work productivity and sleep I hope that storm goes away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Close call possibly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 That would be a massive ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 3 hours ago, pcbjr said: Pack, You are a whole lot smarter than I am. So please take this with a grain of salt. Just looking at everything I can get my eyes on, it seems that around Feb 3rd give or take (obviously that far away), there should (might???) be a change that we'd like. For a while but not long duration. I personally feel Feb will be a BN for month for the east but will have a lot of work to do based on the day 10+ guidance, several weak Nina +QBO analogs back this. The trop PV looks to consolidate right over the pole with a lobe over AK. The EPS is worse it actually starts sending PV over to Siberia. Let's hope it's as wrong about that as it was about the snow today. So far in Jan we are torching, but the next few days can erase a lot of that. But, days 3-10+ looks to really torch, though doesn't mean we can't have a slightly BN day or two in there. So point is Jan is most likely going to finish AN making it 8 months of AN for NC and I assume the SE as a whole. Got to break eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 11 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: That would be a massive ice storm. Nearly a 1050 mb high...not bad lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 3 hours ago, Cold Rain said: I do not believe we're going to sustain a great or terrible pattern for any duration this winter. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 1 hour ago, Cold Rain said: About 3/4" zr + ip + sn- When will you finally move to the mtns? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: When will you finally move to the mtns? As soon as I convince the better half and getvyou to hire me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 21 minutes ago, Lookout said: Nearly a 1050 mb high...not bad lol Haha yeah, just your ordinary, run of the mill, ho hum 1050 high, parked in a nearly ideal damming spot. Hopefully, it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 55 minutes ago, packbacker said: I personally feel Feb will be a BN for month for the east but will have a lot of work to do based on the day 10+ guidance, several weak Nina +QBO analogs back this. The trop PV looks to consolidate right over the pole with a lobe over AK. The EPS is worse it actually starts sending PV over to Siberia. Let's hope it's as wrong about that as it was about the snow today. So far in Jan we are torching, but the next few days can erase a lot of that. But, days 3-10+ looks to really torch, though doesn't mean we can't have a slightly BN day or two in there. So point is Jan is most likely going to finish AN making it 8 months of AN for NC and I assume the SE as a whole. Got to break eventually. I've been learning a lot while lurking while you guys chased this storm. So what is the story with how the PV affects winter in the southeast? Apparently a strong PV is bad if you like cold here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 If any of you get a chance and you have snow on the ground, go outside and get away from street lights and house lights, if you can, and just take in one of nature's rare and most beautiful moments in this part of the world. It's such an awesome experience to be able to stand outside on a cold winter's night and watch the snow sparkle under the light of the nearly full moon. The night is unusually bright as the snow reflects the fullness of the moon's light. And the only sound you hear is the distinctive crunch as you step quietly through the snow. It's a unique and unforgettable beauty that is rarely afforded in our part of the world and one to be treasured for sure. Enjoy it before it's gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 10 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I've been learning a lot while lurking while you guys chased this storm. So what is the story with how the PV affects winter in the southeast? Apparently a strong PV is bad if you like cold here? This site is good, several good articles that explain a lot. http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/NAO.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 12 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I've been learning a lot while lurking while you guys chased this storm. So what is the story with how the PV affects winter in the southeast? Apparently a strong PV is bad if you like cold here? Strong PV basically means cold air is trapped up in the arctic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 00z NAM seems to have some very light precip in NC on Tuesday. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Who's staying up for the euro? And more importantly who's making the thread? I say the guy that did the last thread what seemed like 2 weeks out Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thess Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 I say the guy that did the last thread what seemed like 2 weeks out Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkAnd I don't think that dude even came back for the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Only have to deal with the next couple of days and then it's pre-emergent time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 22 minutes ago, packbacker said: Only have to deal with the next couple of days and then it's pre-emergent time. Ugly is the picture!!! Wow! But it want last forever!! Should be more fun and games after the January thaw........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 30 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Ugly is the picture!!! Wow! But it want last forever!! Should be more fun and games after the January thaw........... Trying to look on the bright side, the Sierra Nevada mountains will get nearly 100 additional inches of snow (during the next 10 days). The high snowfall amounts also are being seen across the entire Rockies. Looks like their water worries will be over come spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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