pcbjr Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Trying to keep this string alive while we wait for the short term storm. Looks like maybe around the 19th we could see another cool down - from there, we'll see if it cools and if so, how much and where it leads, temp and precip wise. Not looking too bad, but certainly not wonderful. Just tossing this out there for those who are not now-casting and may still be looking at the longer range .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Nothing too interesting after we get past the weekend. I still think we might see a little ice at the beginning of the midweek precip in the CAD regions. It would fit climo in this area. After that, I'd expect a bit of a thaw. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I'll just leave this here for people who see any slight SER on modeling and freak out. SER can produce positive outcomes. This is likely what kept this thing from sliding out to Cuba. Thank the SER.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 2 hours ago, Jon said: I'll just leave this here for people who see any slight SER on modeling and freak out. SER can produce positive outcomes. This is likely what kept this thing from sliding out to Cuba. Thank the SER. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk It's doing nothing for SC though. I thinks folks here can still freak out when they see the SER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 2 hours ago, jshetley said: It's doing nothing for SC though. I thinks folks here can still freak out when they see the SER If you want a deep SE winter, there cannot be a SER of any consequence. It may be a boon to Boone perhaps, but not to the SE as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 00z GFS has an interesting look for next weekend in the CAD regions - 1040 hp over SE Canada with some moisture moving through. Doesn't look great, but the players seem to be there. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Don't be surprised if there is a nuisance/minor freezing rain event on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning as some moisture moves through and there's still some residual cold air in CAD areas. 12z NAM keeps GSO aob 32 through 00z Wednesday. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Next 12 days snow on GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Next 12 days snow on GFS That map looks eerily familiar in NC. I'm not getting suckered in again, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, cbmclean said: That map looks eerily familiar in NC. I'm not getting suckered in again, though. Congrats franklin, Wow, QC, and all you other westerners! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Almost certain Frosty's map includes today's storm, so nothing to exciting to see there. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 19 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Next 12 days snow on GFS Much of the snow you see in NC is from the current storm..... I DO think we'll have a few more chances later this winter, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Looks slightly warm. It took us roughly 3 weeks to turn it around when we had this look in Dec and the BN period will last roughly 5-7 days. Hope Feb gives us a window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 10 minutes ago, packbacker said: Hope Feb gives us a window. It is in the cards and should be wet. For about 15 days. I'm predicting the 5th - 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, pcbjr said: It is in the cards and should be wet. For about 15 days. I'm predicting the 5th - 20th. Was just looking see if the nina forcing will relent...it's still all out nina at end of both GEFS/GEPS runs but CFS has been steady with flipping that the last week of Jan into Feb. But to believe we need to start seeing it on the global ensembles. Otherwise we will have to hope for another round of stout -EPO to dump cold into the east, but as you have seen it's only a few days and then we go right back to the pac low over AK with a displaced ridge. So in summary...I see nothing on the ensembles of a true pattern change....#ninaSER CFS week 4: Not exactly where we want it but -VP off 120E is a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 So far this winter...pretty much a canonical nina pattern, displaced pac ridge, trough in the west, warm SE with a very stout SER. Not the look of any our cold/snowy nina winters. So I guess in some way the little bit of snow/ice we got today is pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Actually when looking at this some more...it's worse then I thought, LOL. The trop PV has set up shop by day 10 over AK, polar regions and over Greenland....and the strat PV is predicted to go off the charts strong when it's suppose to start weakening just based on seasonality, LOL. Was wondering why CFS was still showing blowtorch for Feb when it's hinting at nina forcing potentially dying down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 50 minutes ago, packbacker said: Actually when looking at this some more...it's worse then I thought, LOL. The trop PV has set up shop by day 10 over AK, polar regions and over Greenland....and the strat PV is predicted to go off the charts strong when it's suppose to start weakening just based on seasonality, LOL. Was wondering why CFS was still showing blowtorch for Feb when it's hinting at nina forcing potentially dying down. Pack, You are a whole lot smarter than I am. So please take this with a grain of salt. Just looking at everything I can get my eyes on, it seems that around Feb 3rd give or take (obviously that far away), there should (might???) be a change that we'd like. For a while but not long duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 I do not believe we're going to sustain a great or terrible pattern for any duration this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 hour ago, packbacker said: So far this winter...pretty much a canonical nina pattern, displaced pac ridge, trough in the west, warm SE with a very stout SER. Not the look of any our cold/snowy nina winters. So I guess in some way the little bit of snow/ice we got today is pretty good. I find it fascinating that the Nina pattern is so strong when the nina itself is so weak; by some measures non-existent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 3m3 minutes ago Next weekend at this time a different kind of challenge the warm-up of late week will be reversed by a massive high over the Great Lakes Tweets Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 35s35 seconds ago Old fashion coast to coast classic winter will include a January thaw but an American pie February. Listen to the song Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 2 hours ago, GreensboroWx said: Much of the snow you see in NC is from the current storm..... I DO think we'll have a few more chances later this winter, though. Yes you're right! My bad, I should have noticed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 23 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 3m3 minutes ago Next weekend at this time a different kind of challenge the warm-up of late week will be reversed by a massive high over the Great Lakes Tweets Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 35s35 seconds ago Old fashion coast to coast classic winter will include a January thaw but an American pie February. Listen to the song Fab Feb delayed not denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 We have seen many more instances of these strong highs this year than we have for the last few years. They will keep us in the game for winter weather, as long as they continue to show up. If they do, I remain optimistic about our chances for colder periods and more wintry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 3 hours ago, BIG FROSTY said: Next 12 days snow on GFS By the way, how does the GFS image of this storm compare with reality? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, WeatherHawk said: sure schools will be closed monday from Randolph, Chatham, and Wake north...as the snow is not going anywhere until Tuesday Yeah I get you're right. Wake will probably be closed all week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 By the way, how does the GFS image of this storm compare with reality? Not very well, I would say!! How about you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Yeah I get you're right. Wake will probably be closed all week. It's just gonna lay around and refreeze...Chatham will probably be out for a while as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: By the way, how does the GFS image of this storm compare with reality? Not very well, I would say!! How about you? Agreed! Hope you got some good snow. How's Powerstroke? Haven't heard from him lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Agreed! Hope you got some good snow. How's Powerstroke? Haven't heard from him lately. He's been plowing! so he's doing good..... Of course it is the GFS what else should we expect??? Did you get any snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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