mackerel_sky Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, DopplerWx said: eps mean gives rdu ~1" of snow, much improved over the op Much worse than yesterday though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Yeah, the mean isn't good. Definitely a huge northern jump with the 2"+ line. All the way up into central VA. Control has basically no snow in NC or southern VA (except extreme SW VA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Probably going to be off considering the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Much worse than yesterday though not really for rdu, about the same. worse for western nc though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 The trend over the past couple of days has been to lift the greenland block a little further north and to raise heights in the SE. That's why the mean snowfall is down further south. Let's hope it stops trending that way but those 50/50's are typically over modeled at day 10 and start retreating a little quicker as you get closer. Ideally we want the PV lobe between HB and Maine, not due east of HB. 2 days ago that's where it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Also, the AK block has shifted more northerly...we want it more NE. When it shifts more northerly the trough in the west gets deeper and also contributes to heights rising in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Last post...even with all that...snow chances may be decreasing but ice chances are going up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PGAWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 From Allan @RaleighWx : W.R.T wintry potential next weekend. Op Euro looks like an outlier. Only 2 or 3 EPS members as warm over NC. D7-9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 What are "50/50"s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, cbmclean said: What are "50/50"s? Low pressure benchmarked at 50w and 50n coordinates. Combined with a -nao it allows cold air to lock-in and funnel down into the south and eastern seaboard. 2010-2011 featured one that was prominent with the -nao that gave us a blockbuster winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 3 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: Low pressure benchmarked at 50w and 50n coordinates. Combined with a -nao it allows cold air to lock-in and funnel down into the south and eastern seaboard. 2010-2011 featured one that was prominent with the -nao that gave us a blockbuster winter Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 40 minutes ago, packbacker said: The trend over the past couple of days has been to lift the greenland block a little further north and to raise heights in the SE. That's why the mean snowfall is down further south. Let's hope it stops trending that way but those 50/50's are typically over modeled at day 10 and start retreating a little quicker as you get closer. Ideally we want the PV lobe between HB and Maine, not due east of HB. 2 days ago that's where it was. Yep, that sucks. The good -NAO was what I had my hopes on. Hopefully it comes back but I'm not holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 14 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: Yep, that sucks. The good -NAO was what I had my hopes on. Hopefully it comes back but I'm not holding my breath. We should have known better! Had a fake -NAO show up awhile back, and didn't materialize, and we haven't had one in 6 years or so, in winter! And some model runs had it and a blockbuster storm, and now maybe losing it, should've expected this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Just now, mackerel_sky said: We should have known better! Had a fake -NAO show up awhile back, and didn't materialize, and we haven't had one in 6 years or so, in winter! And some model runs had it and a blockbuster storm, and now maybe losing it, should've expected this! You guys have to stop living and dying on every model run. This place has some serious bipolar tendencies going on here. Its hard to argue this isn't the best shot we have had all winter. It's still a week out and has time to trend one way or another. Everyone chill the **** out and realize it could be much worse. Again the players are there just not where we need them. As January comes along watch for more and more opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 12z Para looks good....suppressed, band of snow down to FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: You guys have to stop living and dying on every model run. This place has some serious bipolar tendencies going on here. Its hard to argue this isn't the best shot we have had all winter. It's still a week out and has time to trend one way or another. Everyone chill the **** out and realize it could be much worse. Again the players are there just not where we need them. As January comes along watch for more and more opportunities. Yeah, but, when the players on the field are the Panthers, it's hard to get excited! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Just now, mackerel_sky said: Yeah, but, when the players on the field are the Panthers, it's hard to get excited! Think of it like the 49ers with joe Montana at he helm with the offensive line lined up offsides. The players are damn good just not in correct position. And I'm not talking thousands of miles. The positions aren't that far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: 12z Para looks good....suppressed, band of snow down to FL. Thanks Pack; you made my afternoon (sort of)! Phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 7 minutes ago, packbacker said: 12z Para looks good....suppressed, band of snow down to FL. Atlantic looks same ridge connecting. But the Pacific ridge is way up there, that's what we need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, NCSNOW said: Atlantic looks same ridge connecting. But the Pacific ridge is way up there, that's what we need. The PV lobe is between HB and Maine, EPS was further north. Split the diff would be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Speaking of the NAO, if I ever win the lottery, one of my first acts will be to commission a study to quantify the impacts of the various indices on SE weather. I am thinking of something like a 4 variable linear regression to analyze the impact of the NAO, AO, PNA, EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 45 minutes ago, cbmclean said: What are "50/50"s? There's a newbie thread that shouldn't be too far down on the main page of our subforum with explanations of a lot of things. 16 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: You guys have to stop living and dying on every model run. This place has some serious bipolar tendencies going on here. Its hard to argue this isn't the best shot we have had all winter. It's still a week out and has time to trend one way or another. Everyone chill the **** out and realize it could be much worse. Again the players are there just not where we need them. As January comes along watch for more and more opportunities. THIS x1000. I told everyone not to freak out at the 12z OP, EPS will be the same...it was. They are still upset, now because the ensemble mean snow went down 1" for their backyard. We have a loooooong way to go folks. Enjoy the ride and remember BIG PICTURE. Potential is still very, very much there...models lose storms very often, many times between 10 days worth of runs, folks should know this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, Jon said: There's a newbie thread that shouldn't be too far down on the main page of our subforum with explanations of a lot of things. THIS x1000. I told everyone not to freak out at the 12z OP, EPS will be the same...it was. They are still upset, now because the ensemble mean snow went down 1" for their backyard. We have a loooooong way to go folks. Enjoy the ride and remember BIG PICTURE. Potential is still very, very much there...models lose storms very often, many times between 10 days worth of runs, folks should know this. The ensemble mean went down because of more suppresion, cold as opposed to cutter due to SER. So that's a posotive to take away imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 21 minutes ago, packbacker said: 12z Para looks good....suppressed, band of snow down to FL. That sure was cold. CLT doesn't get out of the 30s for several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Para might be bringing the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, NCSNOW said: The ensemble mean went down because of more suppresion, cold as opposed to cutter due to SER. So that's a posotive to take away imo. Maybe get that NW trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 3 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: The ensemble mean went down because of more suppresion, cold as opposed to cutter due to SER. So that's a posotive to take away imo. I have considered filling a restraining order against the SER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 5 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I have considered filling a restraining order against the SER. As the board lawyer, I'll be glad to file! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 26 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: You guys have to stop living and dying on every model run. This place has some serious bipolar tendencies going on here. Its hard to argue this isn't the best shot we have had all winter. It's still a week out and has time to trend one way or another. Everyone chill the **** out and realize it could be much worse. Again the players are there just not where we need them. As January comes along watch for more and more opportunities. Great post. Seems like the mood swings wildly in here. Then the ensembles come out and things don't look that bad. We are going to have swings every single run until we get in under 2 or 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Great post. Seems like the mood swings wildly in here. Then the ensembles come out and things don't look that bad. We are going to have swings every single run until we get in under 2 or 3 days. Yep, too early to freak out (either way) about 1 or even 2 op runs. Always, always, always wait for the ensembles to verify or contradict the op before placing your bets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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