griteater Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 At 204, snow from TX panhandle to central Arkansas, 850 0 deg line from Cape Hatteras to just north of Dallas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 At 210, snow or wintry precip from TX panhandle to western 2/3 of TN, far N MS/AL/GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Yeah...50/50 in a good spot, high up sGreenland....block should help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 At 216, its wintry precip from N Mexico to E NC...850 0 deg line from Wilmington to far N GA to Dallas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 @216 a classic overrunning setup for the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 gonna be a good run for nc i believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 It's just a slow moving, prolonged, and expansive overrunning event for upper south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 At 228, precip still stretches from all of TX to E NC/VA...850 0 deg from Elizabeth City to Charlotte to Jackson, MS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 THen you can see the big wave that the GFS harps on coming down into the NW... This is my fav pattern - the "boot". Ridge off W coast, Greenland ridge, WSW flow from STJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Another thing to keep in mind are ground temps. They aren't going to be extremely cold. Looking at 2-3 weeks of temperatures at or above normal before this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 It's a very long duration event...neat seeing that modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 wnc gets all snow, rdu north looks like all snow but it is close, sleet/mix just to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Looks fun... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 25 minutes ago, BristowWx said: If really want to see what a storm is going to do or understand the pattern looking at the 500mb charts is the way to go. it shows the state of the over all pattern. we like blue over us and red up above us. the other way around is not pleasant if you like winter. the surface is another matter entirely but usually matches what's happening at H5 16 minutes ago, Shawn said: H5 is just a fast way of saying 500mb heights. the maps you see posted talking about "blocking" with reds and blues etc are 500mb generally. usually, 500mb maps are better to use versus surface maps from a model to get a true idea of what is happening. I understand that the answer may be too complex for a layman but why is the 500 millibar level so much better for understanding what is happening. I also see 850 mb heights referenced quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Thought the 12z gfs 16 inch snow clown couldn't be beat, but euro may have out did it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Looks fun... Expansive precipitation- just wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Stout block... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 9 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Another thing to keep in mind are ground temps. They aren't going to be extremely cold. Looking at 2-3 weeks of temperatures at or above normal before this. This is the least of our concerns at this lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 I've seen that map many times. Extreme northern wake may see some snow. Everyone south of US-1 will be disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Just now, packbacker said: Stout block... wow. that is impressive look. Even if I don't get snow that is still pretty to look at. lets bring this home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 That's what cold air + moist air looks like. Beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Again, we needed a day 11 Op Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 5 minutes ago, packbacker said: Looks fun... CLT gets rain, toss it. GFS rules. Surprised it wouldn't be cold enough for winter precip in the upstate with that set up though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: Again, we needed a day 11 Op Euro run. A beautiful map. The mountains would get absolutely crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: I've seen that map many times. Extreme northern wake may see some snow. Everyone south of US-1 will be disappointed. Wake County is the cutoff line, no surprise. Per EuroWx, 6"+ for the northern half of the county, which quickly drops down to around 1" on the southern edge. Better than you think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 So the rain/snow line doesn't drop as the storm moves east on the Euro OP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 In the N Atlantic the GFS and Euro are complete opposites yet both manage to bring a big snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Just now, RubiksDestroyer said: Wake County is the cutoff line, no surprise. Per EuroWx, 6"+ for the northern half of the county, which quickly drops down to around 1" on the southern edge. Better than you think. EuroWX also has separate sleet and freezing rain maps I believe. Is it showing major sleet and ice below the snow cutoff line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, packfan98 said: EuroWX also has separate sleet and freezing rain maps I believe. Is it showing major sleet and ice below the snow cutoff line? I agree there'd be significant winter precip south of those snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Is this the type of system with snow/rain cutoff. or more of a transition zone with fzra and ip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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