Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, packbacker said: I will buy into the NAM's tonight if they show what they showed at 12z for the 12km NAM and at 12/18z on the 3km NAM. The 21z SREF's ticked east some. The ARW members really backed off quite a bit...has 2-3" mean for RDU with 6"+ for NE NC. The NMB member mean actually went up quite a bit but the spread increased....it has 7 big members and 5 complete whiffs for all the Carolina's. What I still don't get is the GEFS/GEPS are very close in there member plot but GEPS has much more precip further west. Shift these 50 more miles that would be a pretty good look with 980-990 SLP's. You just know the Nam is going to cave. You just know it. It has to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: You just know the Nam is going to cave. You just know it. It has to. I feel a complete debacle tonight. If NAM’s cave I am going to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 8 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Def under. When’s the new release? Around 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, packbacker said: I feel a complete debacle tonight. If NAM’s cave I am going to bed. NAM is beginning now. I'm just glad to be chasing something, better than past years 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 20 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Def under. When’s the new release? Looks like it's down to 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Shifted east 30 miles. These are so useless though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Well I was close.. Just a little over 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The SREFs tend to just follow whatever the previous NAM run did, in my experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: Shifted east 30 miles. These are so useless though. It's just following the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: Shifted east 30 miles. These are so useless though. They’re only useless when they show increasing snow. You can rest assured they’re right as rain when they show decreasing snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Yeah. This was always a long shot, hopefully the NAM hangs in there. If not, I guess it's just kicking the can for RDU. One of these days we'll cash in again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Then again, this is the same trend we've seen the past few days. 06z and 12z move west. Everyone rejoices. 18z backs off and 00z holds. People freak out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, WidreMann said: Then again, this is the same trend we've seen the past few days. 06z and 12z move west. Everyone rejoices. 18z backs off and 00z holds. People freak out. NAM is running lets see if it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Can’t wait to hear the following in a few: 1) Wave not digging quite as much. 2) Looks like a later phase incoming. 3) Not gonna cut it this run 4) I don’t understand why the precipitation isn’t farther west. 5) Nam caving to the GFS. 6) Oh well, on to the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: Can’t wait to hear the following in a few: 1) Wave not digging quite as much. 2) Looks like a later phase incoming. 3) Not gonna cut it this run 4) I don’t understand why the precipitation isn’t farther west. 5) Nam caving to the GFS. 6) Oh well, on to the GFS. wooohoo! At least we've got some entertaining football to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Can’t wait to hear the following in a few: 1) Wave not digging quite as much. 2) Looks like a later phase incoming. 3) Not gonna cut it this run 4) I don’t understand why the precipitation isn’t farther west. 5) Nam caving to the GFS. 6) Oh well, on to the GFS. In other words same old same old. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Tar Heel Snow said: wooohoo! At least we've got some entertaining football to watch. Go Dawgs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Go Sooners! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Go for OT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Roll Tide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Can’t wait to hear the following in a few: 1) Wave not digging quite as much. 2) Looks like a later phase incoming. 3) Not gonna cut it this run 4) I don’t understand why the precipitation isn’t farther west. 5) Nam caving to the GFS. 6) Oh well, on to the GFS. Looking good so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 11 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Can’t wait to hear the following in a few: 1) Wave not digging quite as much. 2) Looks like a later phase incoming. 3) Not gonna cut it this run 4) I don’t understand why the precipitation isn’t farther west. 5) Nam caving to the GFS. 6) Oh well, on to the GFS. You forgot: 1- it's east, but negligible! 2- convective feedback 3- it's the NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 55 minutes ago, packbacker said: I feel a complete debacle tonight. If NAM’s cave I am going to bed. Goodnight Pack!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Goodnight Pack!! This is why you never trust the Nam when it shows something good. When it show something bad, different story, as you can clearly see. Even after the upgrade, same old crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Goodnight Pack!! LOL...going to be a whiff it looks like. All hail GFS/Euro. It doesn’t snow in Raleigh...never will. But I do think east of 95 gets a couple off inches when all said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, packbacker said: LOL...going to be a whiff it looks like. All hail GFS/Euro. It doesn’t snow in Raleigh...never will. But I do think east of 95 gets a couple off inches when all said and done. Yeah...pretty sure it's never snowing here again, but mother nature will continue to throw us a bone just to keep us interested! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 15 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: You forgot: 1- it's east, but negligible! 2- convective feedback 3- it's the NAM Dumpster fire, no wait , actually the same as X run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 NAM has "phase delay" apparently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I will guarantee you that if we needed an east solution, it would have phased earlier. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Well there is a fairly good consensus now on the timing of the sw’s. Hopefully eastern SC/NC gets hit good still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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