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Jonathan

Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent

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Calling off winter 7 days into February is a bit ridiculous and premature. No,the pattern doesn’t bode well in the next week or so. But given how poorly models have handled winter thus far, I’m not giving them much credibility. We’ve had snow well into February and March. So, quit whining about something that could very well change within a few weeks.


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17 minutes ago, ryan1234 said:

Calling off winter 7 days into February is a bit ridiculous and premature. No,the pattern doesn’t bode well in the next week or so. But given how poorly models have handled winter thus far, I’m not giving them much credibility. We’ve had snow well into February and March. So, quit whining about something that could very well change within a few weeks.


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Ok, I'm just going to put one more hundy in the machine and then I'll quit.  Those wheels are bound to line up on jackpot soon baby!  I've been playing for 3 hours and lost my ass so I'm way overdue!

House odds, we lose.

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1 hour ago, ryan1234 said:

Calling off winter 7 days into February is a bit ridiculous and premature. No,the pattern doesn’t bode well in the next week or so. But given how poorly models have handled winter thus far, I’m not giving them much credibility. We’ve had snow well into February and March. So, quit whining about something that could very well change within a few weeks.


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Even if we luck out and get a late season miracle, it won't change the fact of how temps are going up and up every year and our window of opportunity gets shorter and shorter every year. I'd say we spend at least a month of met winter with spring temps every year. Maybe not a month consecutive of spring temps but overall the warmth overwhelms the cold.

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1 hour ago, ryan1234 said:

Calling off winter 7 days into February is a bit ridiculous and premature. No,the pattern doesn’t bode well in the next week or so. But given how poorly models have handled winter thus far, I’m not giving them much credibility. We’ve had snow well into February and March. So, quit whining about something that could very well change within a few weeks.


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True, but to be fair, in " a few weeks" it will really be too late for most outside the mountains to reasonably hope for any wintry weather. While it's true SC has had very good snows in late Feb through mid March, those storms tend to take a miracle and we don't have the climate we used to. I'm still hopeful to get one more chance, but I just have very little confidence of ingredients lining up at the eleventh hour. Maybe we get a repeat of last year with March being colder than Feb, but it still didn't deliver south of I -40. We'll see, but we're almost out of punting room, and the " we've gotten good snows... " line of keeping hope alive is likely just that.

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Pretty sad....Seattle and other coastal communities in the NW are forecast to get 4 to 8 inches + of snow this weekend...The mountains in california got over 120 inches of snow in a matter of 3 days this week...that is over 10 feet plus of snow in 72 hours and we cannot even get the whiff of a renegade snow flake or sleet pellet??? This is worse then pretty sad it is pretty freakin pathetic!!!!!!!!!!!

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16 minutes ago, NorthernUpstateSC said:

Pretty sad....Seattle and other coastal communities in the NW are forecast to get 4 to 8 inches + of snow this weekend...The mountains in california got over 120 inches of snow in a matter of 3 days this week...that is over 10 feet plus of snow in 72 hours and we cannot even get the whiff of a renegade snow flake or sleet pellet??? This is worse then pretty sad it is pretty freakin pathetic!!!!!!!!!!!

Until we can get a -NAO in winter expect more of the same. -EPO only works if its centered more east like 2014. This year it's too far west. We really need the NAO in the SE more than any other region. 

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17 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

Until we can get a -NAO in winter expect more of the same. -EPO only works if its centered more east like 2014. This year it's too far west. We really need the NAO in the SE more than any other region. 

Don't worry all the teleconnections will set up perfectly this year just the "in winter" part of it will be fail.  :frostymelt:

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Atlanta :

 

Thursday was the earliest 80 degree reading in a year since records began in the late 1800’s.  That 80 degrees broke the daily record by 8 degrees and was nearly ten days earlier than the last earliest 80 degree day.  

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This has to be the worst Jan and Feb I have ever seen. It especially hurt because everyone was going very cold and the piece of junk Euro weeklies were confirming that until mid Jan or so.

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Is anyone seeing any real chances for anymore winter?  All I see are some small brief cold snaps and a reloading transient pattern that primarily lets the SER dominate.

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1 hour ago, CaryWx said:

Is anyone seeing any real chances for anymore winter?  All I see are some small brief cold snaps and a reloading transient pattern that primarily lets the SER dominate.

Unfortunately winter weather is most likely done. I don't think we know how the very end of Feb and the 1st 2 weeks of March will go yet, but if I was a betting man I would bet money it's over. 

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2 hours ago, Waiting on snow said:

Unfortunately winter weather is most likely done. I don't think we know how the very end of Feb and the 1st 2 weeks of March will go yet, but if I was a betting man I would bet money it's over. 

Yeah, we have one more opportunity for things to swing better (+PNA) by the end of the month. But I'm with you, the odds are not good at this point. 

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On 2/8/2019 at 12:49 PM, Waiting on snow said:

Until we can get a -NAO in winter expect more of the same. -EPO only works if its centered more east like 2014. This year it's too far west. We really need the NAO in the SE more than any other region. 

Jan 88 storm had a +NAO! So , it’s overated, but this winter we have found so many new ways to fail, it’s unprecedented!!! A great, midooki Niño, that somehow, presents itself as a roaring La Niña! Don’t forget, our best snows come in March, and the NW Piedmont, is getting a crippling ice storm tomorrow! :(

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8 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

Pushing 90 here in Tampa. I could say some colorful vocabulary at this point. 

That's awful!:yikes: For once I'm not on the torch side - 37 and drizzle here.

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3 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

That's awful!:yikes: For once I'm not on the torch side - 37 and drizzle here.

A super fun 33 and rain here !!! If only it was windy.... A man can dream.

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17 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

Jan 88 storm had a +NAO! So , it’s overated, but this winter we have found so many new ways to fail, it’s unprecedented!!! A great, midooki Niño, that somehow, presents itself as a roaring La Niña! Don’t forget, our best snows come in March, and the NW Piedmont, is getting a crippling ice storm tomorrow! :(

Again, we have to have all the stars aligned absolutely perfectly just so we can see a snowflake or sleet pellet but, the golf tournament in pebble beach southern cali had play suspended today for 45 minutes so they could clean the accumulation of grapple from the greens and fairways?? Seattle Washington pretty much at sea level between 2 mountain ranges in a worse snow hole area supposed then we are here on just the lee side of the apps can get get 6 or more inches of snow and has stayed on the ground the last 4 or 5 days?? And, parts of the sierra nevada mountains in cali had over 120 inches of snow in just 3 days earlier this last week and even more after that?? Enough said...:guitar: Beginning to think we have shifted south in the hemisphere and we are now were florida used to be....
 

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24 minutes ago, NorthernUpstateSC said:
Again, we have to have all the stars aligned absolutely perfectly just so we can see a snowflake or sleet pellet but, the golf tournament in pebble beach southern cali had play suspended today for 45 minutes so they could clean the accumulation of grapple from the greens and fairways?? Seattle Washington pretty much at sea level between 2 mountain ranges in a worse snow hole area supposed then we are here on just the lee side of the apps can get get 6 or more inches of snow and has stayed on the ground the last 4 or 5 days?? And, parts of the sierra nevada mountains in cali had over 120 inches of snow in just 3 days earlier this last week and even more after that?? Enough said...:guitar: Beginning to think we have shifted south in the hemisphere and we are now were florida used to be....
 

Atleast all the models have fantasy storms, with ensemble support today, only 10 days away! 

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7 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Atleast all the models have fantasy storms, with ensemble support today, only 10 days away! 

So Mack, what your really saying...there still is a chance??? :snowing:

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2 minutes ago, NorthernUpstateSC said:

So Mack, what your really saying...there still is a chance??? :snowing:

Not a betting man but..scheduled to have shoulder surgery on Feb 22nd... wit my luck that day or the day before is when we probably get the mother of all storms....

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37 minutes ago, NorthernUpstateSC said:

Not a betting man but..scheduled to have shoulder surgery on Feb 22nd... wit my luck that day or the day before is when we probably get the mother of all storms....

If that happens, you'll  be required to have shoulder surgery every year!

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1 hour ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

If that happens, you'll  be required to have shoulder surgery every year!

Ok, Ice age if I am forced to take one for the the SE team on a yearly basis for the mother of all storms....since there is a several month recovery time period for each surgery I will have to nominate you to head the donation collection board so I don't end up living in a tent....

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Hard to believe anything the GEFS does good in the long range (I.e Snowfall Maps) simply because it’s so block happy and it never materializes 

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21 hours ago, NorthernUpstateSC said:

Ok, Ice age if I am forced to take one for the the SE team on a yearly basis for the mother of all storms....since there is a several month recovery time period for each surgery I will have to nominate you to head the donation collection board so I don't end up living in a tent....

:lol: Hey if you can sacrifice your body for the collective, I'll head up the relief fund! :snowing:

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