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Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent


Jonathan
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This was a first for me honestly. Haven't seen a bust like this in years, maybe never. This isn't a situation when modeling trended our way within the last 24 hours and we ended up not getting it (which happens often with NW jogging, etc), it's a situation where  the Euro hits on 8"+ for days leading up to the storm and only the Nam 4km and HRRR starts talking differently. Warm SST's might have been the silent killer, moisture was simply too warm even with plenty of cold air and the TEXTBOOK and I mean TEXTBOOK track for Central NC. Good god this is bad. Can't ask for more, so when are we going to get another look at 12"+ for Wake? It will be a few years. Shame.

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13 minutes ago, Jon said:

This was a first for me honestly. Haven't seen a bust like this in years, maybe never. This isn't a situation when modeling trended our way within the last 24 hours and we ended up not getting it (which happens often with NW jogging, etc), it's a situation where  the Euro hits on 8"+ for days leading up to the storm and only the Nam 4km and HRRR starts talking differently. Warm SST's might have been the silent killer, moisture was simply too warm even with plenty of cold air and the TEXTBOOK and I mean TEXTBOOK track for Central NC. Good god this is bad. Can't ask for more, so when are we going to get another look at 12"+ for Wake? It will be a few years. Shame.

Yeah learning moment for me. Tracked this thing for 10 days, it got better and better. Never going to trust a storm unless I study the HRRR and see where the snow line is coming and I have to see I'm 20 miles north of it. 

Also, surface temps have to be at freezing or below for the majority of the event. Terrible bust for many.

And it was a stinking Miller A !!!

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17 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I got a slight dusting.  And it's sleeting lightly.  Can't even snow on the backside in crashing temps from a Miller A in an Arctic air mass.  SMH

 

10 minutes ago, Jon said:

This was a first for me honestly. Haven't seen a bust like this in years, maybe never. This isn't a situation when modeling trended our way within the last 24 hours and we ended up not getting it (which happens often with NW jogging, etc), it's a situation where  the Euro hits on 8"+ for days leading up to the storm and only the Nam 4km and HRRR starts talking differently. Warm SST's might have been the silent killer, moisture was simply too warm even with plenty of cold air and the TEXTBOOK and I mean TEXTBOOK track for Central NC. Good god this is bad. Can't ask for more, so when are we going to get another look at 12"+ for Wake? It will be a few years. Shame.

I don't know what to say either...this is a new low for Raleigh, worse than the Dec 2000 bust.  Raleigh is at it's lowest 15/20/30 year snowfall average in 130+ years, our 10 year is just ahead of where it was in 1999.  You just can't help but laugh.  I had low expectations for this winter to begin with and then I got sucked in with this storm and thought we had a chance at a 4-6" event.   That won't happen again. 

Luckily my kids could care less, they just laughed and went outside and are skating around on the 0.5" of sleet.

Congrats to everyone that got snow!

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17 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

Yeah learning moment for me. Tracked this thing for 10 days, it got better and better. Never going to trust a storm unless I study the HRRR and see where the snow line is coming and I have to see I'm 20 miles north of it. 

Also, surface temps have to be at freezing or below for the majority of the event. Terrible bust for many.

And it was a stinking Miller A !!!

If this had just been 12 hours slower we'd have a different story. The cold air is finally coming down in CAD fashion somewhat and changing precip over, but it is too late. One final band came through here just in the last 1.5 hours and gave us a very nice dusting here in Jonesville so the shutout is done. Hopefully this band gave Mac a dusting too.

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On 12/28/2016 at 7:00 PM, jshetley said:

The 18z GFS is well on its way to coming back to reality with both precip and temps. When day 16 on this model actually arrives, no one outside of the mountains will have had significant winter weather here in the southeast. Temps will not go below 25 either outside of the mountains and 1 inch or less total precip will have fallen. Reality will be 60-70 or warmer for highs and around 50 for lows.

Just no.  Absolutely and categorically not even close.

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12 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said:

TWC has Reynolds Wolf and Scott Newell in Raleigh and Mike Seidel in Charlotte. Great job, guys!  :D  Greensboro?  Where's that?  Our weather pros have never heard of it.  Haha!  Fools.

I don't know anything about how television weather networks work, but I assume in edge cases like this they prioritize large viewership metros over anything else. Whatever it takes to keep the most people watching. But maybe I am overly cynical. :)

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2 minutes ago, thess said:

I don't know anything about how television weather networks work, but I assume in edge cases like this they prioritize large viewership metros over anything else. Whatever it takes to keep the most people watching. But maybe I am overly cynical. :)

You'd think they'd want the most dramatic images and stories.  They should've done their homework.  We should have warned them about the legendary northwest trend. That's how it works in NC.

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6 minutes ago, thess said:

I don't know anything about how television weather networks work, but I assume in edge cases like this they prioritize large viewership metros over anything else. Whatever it takes to keep the most people watching. But maybe I am overly cynical. :)

The Greensboro/High Point /Winston-Salem CSA isn't all that much smaller than the Raleigh or Charlotte CSAs, though (2.5 vs 2.1 vs 1.7 million).

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10 minutes ago, No snow for you said:

Shetley was right? Wow 

I believe your area got about what was forecast though. i'm hearing that anywhere from 2-5 inches fell in the northern half of the GSP metro from this. It from Atlanta to Athens up through the southern upstate into Charlotte and into Raleigh that busted badly. I pretty much knew after that Thursday evening NAM run that this was over for that zone and did get that right.

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10 minutes ago, superjames1992 said:

The Greensboro/High Point /Winston-Salem CSA isn't all that much smaller than the Raleigh or Charlotte CSAs, though (2.5 vs 2.1 vs 1.7 million).

My bad. I'm a transplant (although going on 11 years now), but Greensboro still tends to be "that one little town that gets the good stadium rock concerts" to me. :) 

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3 minutes ago, thess said:

My bad. I'm a transplant (although going on 11 years now), but Greensboro still tends to be "that one little town that gets the good stadium rock concerts" to me. :) 

Haha!  True.  The little metro with only 1.7 million people. :D

Of the three metros in the NC Piedmont, never bet against the Triad to win the snow contest.  It will win 3 out of 4 times.

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6 minutes ago, thess said:

My bad. I'm a transplant (although going on 11 years now), but Greensboro still tends to be "that one little town that gets the good stadium rock concerts" to me. :) 

Don't get me wrong, it's definitely smaller than Charlotte and Raleigh, but it is a sizable metro area its own right these days, :)

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1 hour ago, SnowNiner said:

Yeah learning moment for me. Tracked this thing for 10 days, it got better and better. Never going to trust a storm unless I study the HRRR and see where the snow line is coming and I have to see I'm 20 miles north of it. 

Also, surface temps have to be at freezing or below for the majority of the event. Terrible bust for many.

And it was a stinking Miller A !!!

More like Miller A-Hole, amirite?

 

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