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12-29 Storm Threat and Obs


UlsterCountySnowZ

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19 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Rgem has been way to wet and snowy this winter so far 

 I agree and disagree, I think the sample size is too small, last storm that dropped close to 7" here was wayyy underdone by RGEM, Nam actually nailed it... as for the smaller event before that, it showed nearly 6" and I only got about 3.9"

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41 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

12z Nam rain all the way up here, very little snow, not sure what Albany is seeing with a 3-7" forcast

The NAM sounding is not even close for snow during the heaviest precip until you get really far north or above 2500ft.  It really warms below 900mb.  Sucks having SEerly flow at all levels without a good antecent airmass.

But once in a while these bombing lows with strong lift do funny things to the column.  I wonder if there will be any surprises.

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Well we have a Gale Watch here in the city - at least there's that:

Quote

... Gale watch remains in effect from Thursday evening through
Friday afternoon... 

* winds and seas... west winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 
  kt. Seas 3 to 5 feet.

Precautionary/preparedness actions... 

A gale watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 kt has significantly increased... but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans

 

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1 hour ago, eduggs said:

The NAM sounding is not even close for snow during the heaviest precip until you get really far north or above 2500ft.  It really warms below 900mb.  Sucks having SEerly flow at all levels without a good antecent airmass.

But once in a while these bombing lows with strong lift do funny things to the column.  I wonder if there will be any surprises.

You also have low pressure north of the lakes which keeps the SE flow.   Had we had a good high this would have been a different story for many.

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I'm just happy to see some kind of coastal storm develop. Once the pattern starts favoring the development of coastal lows, it's usually only a matter of time before one intensifies in a good spot and hooks up with cold air to produce some kind of snow close to the coast. I'm not saying to expect anything major or significant in the coming weeks, but compared to what we've been seeing the last few months, I'll take tomorrow's storm as a positive.

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30 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Most of the guidance I've seen today has dramatically cut back on precipitation totals. The surface low really doesn't develop until it reaches SNE.

I don't think that's really true.  There's already a surface low center in Virginia by 12z tomorrow morning on most guidance.  And it deepens fairly rapidly from then on out.  That's why we'll probably have a period of moderate or heavy precipitation.  The problem is this coastal low doesn't become dominant and a fully mature mid-level circulation doesn't develop until too late (even though it has been steadily trending that way for days).  That means SEerly winds flood the boundary layer with above freezing temperatures and snow is confined to the Catskills and Berks.

In some runs a few days ago, the SLP was developing too late to even bring more than a tenth or two of precip to the area.  The multi day trend has been to amplify the trof and develop the SLP earlier.  But with the parent low in central Ontario, we're still screwed even with the rapidly developing coastal low.

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MWN

Thursday

Snow, mainly after 11am. High near 19. Wind chill values as low as -20. Windy, with a southeast wind 30 to 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Thursday Night

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 10. Wind chill values as low as -20. Very windy, with an east wind 35 to 45 mph becoming west 75 to 85 mph. Winds could gust as high as 100 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 18 to 24 inches possible.

Friday

Snow likely, mainly before 1pm, then a chance of snow showers after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 12. Very windy, with a west wind 65 to 75 mph decreasing to 55 to 65 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 90 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

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