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Thursday Thumper or Thirst-Quencher


moneypitmike

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1 minute ago, Modfan said:

Is this what Will was eluding to earlier in the week that S Worc County, NW RI, NE CT could be an area to bust high it this bombs out earlier?

Yes. The models started to do that a few days ago, then backed off from 18z Tuesday through about 18z yesterday. They held steady and then the mesos started to develop sooner again with a more notable trend starting 6z last night. This isn't about cold, it's about how fast it develops because that will help dynamically cool things. All you can do is communicate the issues with all you guys and then watch what happens. However, if you know the situation and have awareness...you can act quickly. 

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looking at WV imagery/loop .. it almost appears there 'should be' at least a tick or two adjustment east based upon fluid mechanics - perhaps the 'hydrostatic' aspect alone should force that as a later correction.  But that's just eye-balling the wave imagery - I haven't see enough other data sources to really corroborate that.

but I almost wonder if getting in tight and close to this thing is allowing these quick cycle models to "see" the cold in the boundary layer better.  

In any case, this really is a top tier grade-A pain in the ass 'needle-threader.'   You gotta understand ...with ANY semblance of blocking in the lower troposphere - hell, I'd even take a rotted polar high - this would be a slam dunk blue thump ending as dust, because the mid level jet mechanics/highest velocity core is modeled to stay SE of RI... WARM air does not cross west across the railroad tracks.

that ending facet alone ...I keep coming back to that.  It may rain in this, obnoxiously far inland ...it may not, but, getting the warm air aloft to move into ASH (even) with 110 knts scream by to the SE by 150 miles is going to be a neat physical trick -  

I just i dunno i think the biggest limitation in this could be duration more than anything else for people NW of ... say Oxford Cape ANN... folks SE of that line will probably end up in spin outs when the road crews inevitably wait for the temperature to actually be freezing before they lay down a bumper saving layer of salt and sand..  This system as pure and simply an ass hauler! And where it does snow NW of that line, again... rate of closing 850 to 700 mb depths/deepening at those levels will probably the biggest factors. I kind of see the radar p-type products slamming to a stop around that line tipping back to N.CT with occasional flips blipping and then blue takes over in the last 2 to 4 hours or something. as for NH and central NE, ...more

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A place like Cape Ann and down to Ray should be excited right now. We knew ORH would see snow but that area is riding the line hard. The combination of wind and flip to snow on Cape Ann could be ridiculous.

If it looks like it will verify, you can bet my ass will be driving up there later on this evening. Who wants to meet up? LOL. 

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2 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

Kevin,

Just want to touch back to what you said about cut and dry- you're right. 

I meant for coast and areas south of pike it looks unlikely that this will be an impact event. 

You might score a few inches, but we were talking about much higher amounts a day or two ago.

 

I never expected more than 4-8" here.. even days ago. I knew was too far south for good stuff. I'll be happy with whatever falls today 

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From BOX at 7am today: 

The main story for tonight, however, will be the wind. Have converted the High Wind Watch for northeastern MA to a Wind Advisory and expanded it to include all of eastern and central MA and RI. As the low deepens from 990 to 970 mb by 1 AM Fri in eastern Maine, west-southwest to west-northwest winds will gust to 40-55 mph across the Advisory area. The strongest winds are expected in the 10 PM to 3 AM time frame. The highest gusts will be in northeast MA, especially over Cape Ann. It is possible that a High Wind Warning may be needed in case wind gusts of 60+ mph become likely. Even with 50 to 55 mph gusts from Boston through the north shore, there could be several trees, tree limbs, and wires downed, causing some power outages.

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