MAG5035 Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 25 minutes ago, pasnownut said: And THATS the CTP we all know and ......... well we know em I'm just goint to reread the forecast discussion a few times...it'll boost my spirits. Nut Well the "potential for this much" map is quite decent haha. That particular one is the 90th percentile map, or in other words a 10% chance of at least x amount of snow falling. The other one "expect at least this much is the 10 percentile map, meaning there is a 90% certainty of getting at least x amount of snow. It def displays the uncertainty remaining. A difference of a degree or two might mean the difference between mainly rain and a snow bomb for a healthy portion of C-PA.. specifically in the central counties below UNV. Not sure if their Most Likely map is a straight 50/50 blend but in general they are slightly less bullish than HPC snow guidance at these percentiles. It's a pretty good call for now, but I do think the higher Laurel's areas are underdone in their most likely map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Considering MDT has about 3 inches on the aggregate, a ground-whitener is a winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 16 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Considering MDT has about 3 inches on the aggregate, a ground-whitener is a winner. It's 1.5" I thought? I mean the snow total, not what you're carrying. But I think Clearfield gets more love tomorrow, I doubt down here we see any accumulation. I never trust cold air to push warmth out of the valley that's been in place for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Why are you and Sauss always concerned about what is going on south of my beltbuckle? Kinda weird. Ask your wives/girlfriends/main ***** for their assessment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Why are you and Sauss always concerned about what is going on south of my beltbuckle? Kinda weird. Ask your wives/girlfriends/main ***** for their assessment LMAO. Thats funny stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarks green snow Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Winter Storm Watch up here issues by BGM. Possible 5 to 10. We will see but I like the trends and being 1500' up doesn't hurt in this type of set-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 The models messing with us again This would be an unexpected pickup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 18z hires NAM is showing quite a difference depending on the snowfall technique used. On the one hand, the e-Wall snowfall total shows 4+ across the whole area ' But if you use the Kuchera technique which incorporates the temperature of the entire column, you get something more like: So yeah, this is a very marginal setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Not expecting more than an inch here personally. Such a shame with the best low track in years for this area. At least if it does snow, it'll probably be really heavy while it lasts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 32 minutes ago, Jmister said: 18z hires NAM is showing quite a difference depending on the snowfall technique used. On the one hand, the e-Wall snowfall total shows 4+ across the whole area ' But if you use the Kuchera technique which incorporates the temperature of the entire column, you get something more like: So yeah, this is a very marginal setup. Wow. Didnt check the Kuchera. That is quite a difference. I vote for panel no. 1 please. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 CTP's evening crew must feel confident. Posted to social medias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Probably see watches go to advisories shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 4 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Probably see watches go to advisories shortly. What makes you think they will go backwards? nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 6 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Probably see watches go to advisories shortly. Based on what exactly? I mean, sure... if the 00z runs come in north and warm then yes... but as of right now there are some models that show warning level snows for those in the watch area like the 12z ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: What makes you think they will go backwards? nut The map they provided has advisory totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 minute ago, Blizz said: Based on what exactly? I mean, sure... if the 00z runs come in north and warm then yes... but as of right now there are some models that show warning level snows for those in the watch area like the 12z ECMWF. Map they posted to social media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 00z NAM gives the State College area close to a foot of snow. EDIT: Using 10:1 ratios... Most likely won't be that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 12 minutes ago, Blizz said: 00z NAM gives the State College area close to a foot of snow. EDIT: Using 10:1 ratios... Most likely won't be that. We're closing in on four feet of clown map snow on the season!! It'll be fun tracking tomorrow but I'll be pretty shocked if the grass ends up covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 7 minutes ago, Blizz said: 00z NAM gives the State College area close to a foot of snow. EDIT: Using 10:1 ratios... Most likely won't be that. 18 and 0z NAM even let the LSV play along. True NC gets a shellackin. Anxious to see if we can pull another good set if 0z's. Heck the long range after midweek warmup looks like it might be winter for a while. We may actually be able to put the toasters back on the shelf and talk winter. God I hope so. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 CTP sticking to nada for MDT, fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 10 minutes ago, canderson said: CTP sticking to nada for MDT, fwiw. They better not look at the Oz Para NAM . . Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 On the same date last year NAM scored the coup. I doubt it happens again so soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 The Para NAM? Hahahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Just now, canderson said: On the same date last year NAM scored the coup. I doubt it happens again so soon. Yeah maybe 1/23 is just its wheelhouse. 4k ticked back just a pinch but still similar to earlier runs. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, anotherman said: The Para NAM? Hahahaha Cherry pick what models or outlet gives you what you want to see and post away baby..... (it's the 3k if you really weren't sure) Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Don't put too much stock in a map that counts sleet as snow at 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 CTP hedging a little bit in their point forecast now though... calling for all snow from 1PM - 1AM. Total accumulation of ~1 inch Surprised to see the 30 MPH gusts though! Didn't realize the winds would be that high this far inland. Could make for some fun times if the snow does happen... Monday Rain before 1pm, then snow. High near 38. Breezy, with an east wind 14 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Monday Night Snow before 1am, then rain and snow showers likely. Low around 31. Northeast wind 9 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 23, 2017 Author Share Posted January 23, 2017 4 hours ago, Jmister said: 18z hires NAM is showing quite a difference depending on the snowfall technique used. On the one hand, the e-Wall snowfall total shows 4+ across the whole area But if you use the Kuchera technique which incorporates the temperature of the entire column, you get something more like: So yeah, this is a very marginal setup. Yup I'll take the NAM using the happy hour method over Kuchera haha. The comparison certainly illustrates the fine line we have with this. I definitely think Kuchera is underestimating North Central PA. NAM p-types have a lot of sleet in NY State.The rest of the central below I-80 could depend. On the contrary, that particular E-wall NAM snowfall map usually overestimates. I was trying to find some Kuchera methodologies on how it calculates ratios and the best I found was this. I'd be curious to hear from anyone that has any more elaboration on how that's calculated. Where the model forecasts snow: 1) Find the maximum temperature in the lowest 500 hPa in degrees K (MaxT). 2) If MaxT is greater than 271.16K, then the liquid equivalent ratio (RAT) is 12.0 + 2.0*(271.16-MaxT). 3) If MaxT is less than 271.16K, then the liquid equivalent ratio (RAT) is 12.0 + (271.16-MaxT) With this setup the warmest temps reside under 925mb near the surface and models really haven't had any widespread surface temps below freezing anywhere, mainly ranging in the 32-35 range (likely a lot of 33-34s). You figure you plug 1 or 2ºC (274.16 or 275.16K) into that equation and that comes out to a 4 or 6:1 ratio. Also a part of that statement, the model has to be showing a straight snow p-type. The 4km NAM def didn't have the widespread snow p-type that the 12km did either...which was a probably a big factor in it. At any rate looks like the new 0z NAM is better for snow in C-PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, skiier04 said: Don't put too much stock in a map that counts sleet as snow at 10:1 Paras not done real well but blind squirrels n nuts nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Thanks to all the pro mets as always for adding their input to this thread! Very interesting and dynamic system even if it doesn't end up as white as we'd all like. Definitely a learning experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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