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Central PA - February 2017


MAG5035

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8 hours ago, maytownpawx said:

You know, I think I've read that at least once each month since it happened. 

Fact is, we've been super spoiled down here, and the folks down south of us have been even more so. Our climatology suggests we average one 10" or greater storm every decade. Here in Lancaster, we've had at least 6-8 in the past 20 years, and I might have missed a couple. It really has been crazy. 

I didnt realize we had a good thread going from last year.  I do remember putting my best foot forward at giving our forum some PBP which is arguably my favorite thing to do when in storm mode.  

Yes, I'm just a little bit punchy right now, as I'm tired of backloaded 4- week winters, so any of you naysayers be warned.  While WMSPT was watching last years blizz....just remember that outside of that storm....it largely sucked donkey balls for us here in the LSV as well.  I too want a large scale hum dinger that we all cash in at varying degrees.  I wont feel jipped.  One storm does not a winter make for me.  I need snow in the air....frequently.

I WANNA SEE SOME FRIGGIN SNOW DAM IT!!   

 

So who do I send the check to for my therapy session?  I feel a little better now that I got that off my chest.

Pattern rolling forward still looks much more inviting for snow.  I'll make it.

Nut

 

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SWMBO (She who must be obeyed) looks for snow days as much as I do. (we both work at different schools). I was really surprised that we had a couple of light snowfalls while I was off work recovering from surgery. I was able to go out to sweep/push one of the snow events with the broom and shovel. the others I didn't even bother to clear. THe last time I was off work for a back surgery was when we had the three days of 4 inch plus storms in 2014. 

Monday's event looks interesting. local mets are staying rain....

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3 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

The goofus always has a crazy run!

I find it interesting how we had 3-4 straght runs showing the cold nose pressing further SW down the Apps, and then all of a sudden....hit a wall and went backwards.  Guess thats why I never really got excited as I knew this on didnt have the cold in place, and for most of us, home grown cold is not something most of our forum does well at, my area being the worst by far.  My gut says true NC Pa into interior Poconos has best shot at pulling it off.

Hope the cold press starts up again so that many more can get into some action.  I'll be wearing my rubber boots.

 

Nut

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The 00z Euro was too warm for snow over most of PA, aside from maybe NE for several hours at the onset of precipitation. There is a high strengthening over Quebec that allows for some ageostrophic flow of cold air into our region. However, the air mass is fairly mild ahead of the coastal storm so this cold ageostrophic flow may not be enough to produce snowy atmospheric profiles, even with evaporative cooling.

Also, the relatively mild air mass results in a weaker temperature gradient with respect to the Atlantic ocean temperatures, leading to lower available potential energy for cyclone growth. So the dynamics of this system are not going to be on the same level as a classic, rapidly-deepening cyclone.

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37 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I find it interesting how we had 3-4 straght runs showing the cold nose pressing further SW down the Apps, and then all of a sudden....hit a wall and went backwards.  Guess thats why I never really got excited as I knew this on didnt have the cold in place, and for most of us, home grown cold is not something most of our forum does well at, my area being the worst by far.  My gut says true NC Pa into interior Poconos has best shot at pulling it off.

Hope the cold press starts up again so that many more can get into some action.  I'll be wearing my rubber boots.

 

Nut

Good points, I believe late January through mid to late Feb and maybe again for awhile in March will give your area some opportunities

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9 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

And.....then the NAM goes and tugs me back in...a bit.

only panels I can view are 700/850's and they definitly look better than 06Z, but surface temps mid 40's.  Got some cooling to do....

sounds like a spring storm.

Nut

 

i wish your PBP had some positives in it......................................like 10" of SNOW :) 

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Just now, sauss06 said:

i wish your PBP had some positives in it......................................like 10" of SNOW :) 

and how..........

Good rates can overcome surface as long as midlevels hang tough.  Would definately lose a lot of qpf in doing so.  Ground warm n saturated....meh...and ya'll know I'm no Debbie.  

Buddy, if next week starts to show promise i may do PBP's for a 1" flizzard right now. ;)

Nut

 

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GFS just put the final squirt into the cheerios for this one.  Congrats W NY and Greens.  At least you'll see a flake.

In the infamoous words of Si Robertson....

she gone.  While its only one model, I just feel this one has too much work to do to get there. 

Somedays i hate this sport......

Nut

 

 

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