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MAG5035

Central PA - February 2017

1,702 posts in this topic

12 minutes ago, heavy_wx said:

Nice break from the cold weather today with highs in the 50s.

I haven't looked, but we'll have to be close to breaking a record in the Harrisburg area today i would think. 

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25 minutes ago, pawatch said:

Considering we didn't get above freezing for most of last week. I'm ok with a warm day.

Hows our weekend storm looking?

It looks like very little moisture, and what falls will be mostly icy.

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NAM rolling now, and I see little/no ice.  700/850's fine thorughout.  Poss mixing just below Mason Dixon to Southern tier counties.  Couple inches for LSV to maybe I80 as per NAM (as I use cause its entering its semi accurate range).

Reminder NAM is qpf happy, so keep that in mind

Nut

 

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3k has best snow below M/D line to BWI.  I'd think it might tick north, but most models show 1037/1045 H well placed in Northern NY, so I'm not sure how this one warms much or creeps too far north as the boundary is pretty established as currently modelled.  Most 6zs have something but definately agree w/ Wspt, this one looks south.  

 

Red taggers..??  whatchu think.  

Nut

 

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Models have been under doing the depth of the warm layer aloft and have had the boundary too far south as a result leading into events. I would expect no different this go around. I think we'll see a narrow band of good precip with moderate to heavy snow potential running along the band. With the models taking the QPF max down near NoVa and DC right now (Outside the 12km NAM), I would take that and shift it north 40-50 miles. I think the areas of note will be from I-70 to Rt. 30 for the best chance at snow accumulating 2+". Add the orographic enhancement,  and some spots could see 4" IMO. I haven't looked into full detail just yet, but that's just from a quick glance. At work, so if I buy some time, I might go a little further into detail. 

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1 hour ago, sauss06 said:

nuisance event 

Nuisance as far as amounts, absolutely. However, a lot of people will be caught off guard after today's record warmth. Some people can't latch on to the fact that it can snow after days like this. We've talked about this in the past on here, but still, people will be caught off guard on Saturday with flakes flying and temps in the 20s. 

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5 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

Nuisance as far as amounts, absolutely. However, a lot of people will be caught off guard after today's record warmth. Some people can't latch on to the fact that it can snow after days like this. We've talked about this in the past on here, but still, people will be caught off guard on Saturday with flakes flying and temps in the 20s. 

exactly. I was just talking with a co-worker, who had no idea we have a chance on saturday. 

 

Edit- Daughter just text, ask me to wash her's and my wifes car after work :) 

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Only 45ºF here so far today and generally cloudy. Not a heat wave but still not too bad out other than all of the mud. 

46 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Models have been under doing the depth of the warm layer aloft and have had the boundary too far south as a result leading into events. I would expect no different this go around. I think we'll see a narrow band of good precip with moderate to heavy snow potential running along the band. With the models taking the QPF max down near NoVa and DC right now (Outside the 12km NAM), I would take that and shift it north 40-50 miles. I think the areas of note will be from I-70 to Rt. 30 for the best chance at snow accumulating 2+". Add the orographic enhancement,  and some spots could see 4" IMO. I haven't looked into full detail just yet, but that's just from a quick glance. At work, so if I buy some time, I might go a little further into detail. 

I agree that best precip is probably gonna run the southern third on the I-70/US 30 line and it probably isn't going to be a very wide corridor. The strong high pressure centering more in NY State/southern New England vs Maine/Southern Quebec could argue for best precip to be pressed down even more to along the mason-dixon line like the 12z GFS/ 0z Euro kind of suggest (will have to see new Euro soon). Canadian looked similar to the NAM. Like Tuesday morning this looks like another precipitation wave that will only deliver a general tenth or two of precip... probably with worse ratios since temps at 850 and 700 are fairly warm and could in fact end up being an issue wrt precip type in the southern tier. Surface and 925s on the other hand look plenty cold with the placement of the surface high. Will prob have to watch for a thin stripe of heavier precip (.25-.50" range most likely) where the best forcing is plus orographic. The southern Laurel's would thus seem like the best bet to see more than what I think will be a general T-2", but they may have p-type issues from the aforementioned marginal 850-700mb layer. 

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1 minute ago, MAG5035 said:

Only 45ºF here so far today and generally cloudy. Not a heat wave but still not too bad out other than all of the mud. 

I agree that best precip is probably gonna run the southern third on the I-70/US 30 line and it probably isn't going to be a very wide corridor. The strong high pressure centering more in NY State/southern New England vs Maine/Southern Quebec could argue for best precip to be pressed down even more to along the mason-dixon line like the 12z GFS/ 0z Euro kind of suggest (will have to see new Euro soon). Canadian looked similar to the NAM. Like Tuesday morning this looks like another precipitation wave that will only deliver a general tenth or two of precip... probably with worse ratios since temps at 850 and 700 are fairly warm and could in fact end up being an issue wrt precip type in the southern tier. Surface and 925s on the other hand look plenty cold with the placement of the surface high. Will prob have to watch for a thin stripe of heavier precip (.25-.50" range most likely) where the best forcing is plus orographic. The southern Laurel's would thus seem like the best bet to see more than what I think will be a general T-2", but they may have p-type issues from the aforementioned marginal 850-700mb layer. 

I agree. I just looked at Bufkit for the area and the thermals within the layer you mentioned are meh. I still think the southern tier can stay all snow, but areas south of I-70 like my neck of the woods will be on the borderline with perhaps more sleet/zr if my suggested precip max comes to fruition. I'll stick with 1-3" near the PA line with areas like South Mountain and the Laurels squeaking out perhaps a little more thanks to topography. Euro just came in even further south btw. Confluence to the north slightly stronger this run. Wouldn't that be a kick in the groin? I still think that it will not be till tomorrow night to hammer out all the details for this. 

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6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I agree. I just looked at Bufkit for the area and the thermals within the layer you mentioned are meh. I still think the southern tier can stay all snow, but areas south of I-70 like my neck of the woods will be on the borderline with perhaps more sleet/zr if my suggested precip max comes to fruition. I'll stick with 1-3" near the PA line with areas like South Mountain and the Laurels squeaking out perhaps a little more thanks to topography. Euro just came in even further south btw. Confluence to the north slightly stronger this run. Wouldn't that be a kick in the groin? I still think that it will not be till tomorrow night to hammer out all the details for this. 

Yea I wish we had a stronger wave to attack this high. Things have really weakened with this first wave vs several days ago. Probably gonna be the last opportunity for snow til late in the month by the looks of it. We really need a reshuffling of the deck with this storm pattern we've been in all winter.

Meanwhile in the west... 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/6-feet-of-snowfall-in-1-week-forces-colorado-ski-resort-to-close/70000540

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5 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Yea I wish we had a stronger wave to attack this high. Things have really weakened with this first wave vs several days ago. Probably gonna be the last opportunity for snow til late in the month by the looks of it. We really need a reshuffling of the deck with this storm pattern we've been in all winter.

Meanwhile in the west... 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/6-feet-of-snowfall-in-1-week-forces-colorado-ski-resort-to-close/70000540

I forecast for a lot of areas in the SW, so I can tell everyone here first hand that this winter has been absolutely ridiculous out there. Fun fact, winds at the surface reached 80 knots in a few spots along the International border out there during the mid-December super trough and uber jet. It's amazing what clear skies, a strong jet and front can do for mixing heights. Fun stuff!!

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Just now, canderson said:

61 degrees in Harrisburg.

Officially breaks 127-year old daily record high of 60, set in 1890.

i'll be having my afternoon cocktails OUTSIDE :drunk:

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Out of the forum a bit, but the thermometer on my truck briefly hit 70 right where I83 dumps off onto I695 in Lutherville, MD this afternoon. 

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Saturday's "storm" is moving south. I bet no one sees any precip except perhaps Cashtown. Extreme southern border, even then probably less than .5" snow.

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

Saturday's "storm" is moving south. I bet no one sees any precip except perhaps Cashtown. Extreme southern border, even then probably less than .5" snow.

It's not so much the storm heading south, but the definition of the energy has looked bleaker, and the cold push is not nearly as prominent. The combined effect leads to a disorganized mess and nothing even remotely close to what was being shown a few days ago. When the hi-res guidance backs off like this, it's pretty much a death nail. I had friends wanting to know my thoughts for tomorrow. I told them it's a tricky setup and I'll let them know today. They were happy to hear things don't look as ugly anymore. I'm kind of glad too. This isn't really anything to write home about down here. On to the nice stretch of weather for here and I'm heading to Florida this Wednesday for a week, so I'll be basking in the warmth regardless. I still have room in my suit case for 1 ;) 

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2 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

It's not so much the storm heading south, but the definition of the energy has looked bleaker, and the cold push is not nearly as prominent. The combined effect leads to a disorganized mess and nothing even remotely close to what was being shown a few days ago. When the hi-res guidance backs off like this, it's pretty much a death nail. I had friends wanting to know my thoughts for tomorrow. I told them it's a tricky setup and I'll let them know today. They were happy to hear things don't look as ugly anymore. I'm kind of glad too. This isn't really anything to write home about down here. On to the nice stretch of weather for here and I'm heading to Florida this Wednesday for a week, so I'll be basking in the warmth regardless. I still have room in my suit case for 1 ;) 

Get your technical mumbo jumbo outta here - it's going south. ;)

I am beginning to think MDT very well might end this year with less than 8" snow; long range doesn't look hot for storms coming through here.

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