heavy_wx Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I think many have forgotten that it can snow in PA during March & early April. I have enjoyed the nice weather this weekend, but I believe that we will pay the price in March with snow & cold. #winterisnotover Is it really "paying the price" if you want it to happen? But I agree that snow is still quite common in March, especially in central and northern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 35 minutes ago, heavy_wx said: Is it really "paying the price" if you want it to happen? But I agree that snow is still quite common in March, especially in central and northern PA. Ask the mid Atlantic how it can snow in March. It's been a ratter for us snow lovers but despite this mess of a winter, the calendar can't be affected or modified by weather patterns. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I think many have forgotten that it can snow in PA during March & early April. I have enjoyed the nice weather this weekend, but I believe that we will pay the price in March with snow & cold. #winterisnotover I'd be shocked if we don't see at least some snow in March, though from what I'm reading our window might be pretty short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 21, 2017 Author Share Posted February 21, 2017 8 hours ago, Atomixwx said: This Pacific air seems to be kicking the entire continental U.S. in the ass every couple years now. I'm not a met, so maybe one can show us some charts to debunk my tinfoil hattery here. <tinfoil> What are the chances the surge of warmth from the Pacific is related to any supposed influence from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant that almost melted to complete shat in 2011? </tinfoil> Not really a "serious" inquiry. I'm looking (read: reaching) for a scapegoat I'll bite haha. In short, no the radiative material released into the atmosphere or the water would have no direct effect on weather patterns or SST's. Rather.. the weather patterns and oceanic currents would have an effect in how it is distributed. And outside of the immediate area around the plant and some of the regional waters just off the coast, levels can be detectable but very miniscule. Here are some SST maps from Today Feb 20, and Feb 19th, 2015. Note the huge difference in the Northern and Eastern Pac. Pacific air invasions aren't necessarily a rare thing, we usually go through moderate periods most winters where we can have more of a zonal flow across the country which will deliver air with a Pacific origin. That or if you dump the occasional trough in the west your usually going to have a ridge response in the east (esp without NAO help). These things are pretty common in a transient or transitioning pattern...just like you can still line things up in the east just right for a snowstorm in a pattern that doesn't have much blocking. This winter has had some pretty overwhelming themes and has stuck to them. It's been kind of like the anti 13/14 and 14/15 with regards to the Pacific. Both of those winters featured very strong eastern Pac/Western US ridges that were a dominant theme. That alignment alone provided a direct arctic source region for cold air into the central/eastern CONUS and kind of rendered the generally unfavorable NAO a bit of a non factor. It also contributed heavily to the historic drought in the western US, especially in California. This winter has featured a lot of troughing in the west and a supressed and very robust Pac jet. The west was due for a stormy winter and they sure got it/still are getting it. This is where the lack of downstream blocking (Greenland/NE Canada) caught up to us this year as we needed that to force heights down in the east in the face of the active western pattern and trough (why we've had a lot of cutters). We had access to pretty cold air in Canada in December and early Jan but it quietly became an issue later in Jan and this month. The Jan 24th storm featured the best pattern alignment with a temporary blocking ridge in eastern Canada forcing the really nice southern stream storm underneath and into a good C-PA track. Unfortunately.. there was no antecedent cold air mass to be had, and marginal cold had to be drawn in/dynamically manufactured. The result was a lot of wasted QPF and a late changeover in the central with the dry slot ending the accumulating snow prematurely. The clipper system and the recent widespread event came about with a relatively favorable storm pattern with the PNA in a positive phase and some western ridging, but again temps weren't very cold. That boundary between not a lot of snow and above average snow has been residing in some of far northern/NE PA and mostly above the NY/PA border this winter. Like i mentioned the other day, BGM already has about 92" for the season (164% of their seasonal avg). There's also this crazy graphic that can sort of illustrate how cold just really hasn't pressed deep into the US very much this winter. Early foliage has started blossoming 15-20+ days early in a large portion of the southeast. With the exception of one event (the deep south ice storm and VA/NC snowstorm), it has been largely a non winter south of the Ohio River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 3 hours ago, heavy_wx said: Is it really "paying the price" if you want it to happen? But I agree that snow is still quite common in March, especially in central and northern PA. Ok, you're right ! The GFS at 12z & 18z looked good for a few snow chances for CTP through week 2 of the 16 day run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 There are flowers blooming everywhere downtown. Wildflowers, daffodils, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 2 hours ago, canderson said: There are flowers blooming everywhere downtown. Wildflowers, daffodils, etc. wait till around Friday or Saturday. I told my wife this **** better not screw up my Lilacs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 1 hour ago, sauss06 said: wait till around Friday or Saturday. I told my wife this **** better not screw up my Lilacs! Friday very well may hit 75 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 I was looking at rainfall data for Harrisburg going back to 1889 and the 73.73 inches received that year is 4.64 standard deviations compared to both the 30 year average (1981-2010) and the regular average (1889-2016). I know the distribution isn't normal, but still, that's amazing. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 Anyone remember 1976 in this area?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 4 hours ago, Jns2183 said: Anyone remember 1976 in this area? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Remember? i'm trying to forget the weird clothes, shoes and hair cut i had, but no i don't remember the weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 So after a few days in the mid 40s Sun-Tues we torch again for the foreseeable future. 80 isn't out of the question in the SE areas of PA it looks like. That big storm that was going to possible alter the atmosphere looks DOA. Doesn't look like we have a sniff of a chance of snow for about three weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 1 hour ago, canderson said: So after a few days in the mid 40s Sun-Tues we torch again for the foreseeable future. 80 isn't out of the question in the SE areas of PA it looks like. That big storm that was going to possible alter the atmosphere looks DOA. Doesn't look like we have a sniff of a chance of snow for about three weeks. I know your rooting the warmth to stay, but did you even look at the 12z GFS? Verbatim, from next Thursday through the end of the run, it gets progressively colder and at 384 is the coldest part of the run. Check the 2m air temps, but unless someone spiked my iced tea at lunch....theres nothing warm about what I just saw. Not saying it will happen, but as modeled, I see nothing close to warm. EDIT - just looked at 500 panels and beyond next Wed., they are what us snow lovers have been waiting for all year. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 12 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I know your rooting the warmth to stay, but did you even look at the 12z GFS? Verbatim, from next Thursday through the end of the run, it gets progressively colder and at 384 is the coldest part of the run. Check the 2m air temps, but unless someone spiked my iced tea at lunch....theres nothing warm about what I just saw. Not saying it will happen, but as modeled, I see nothing close to warm. EDIT - just looked at 500 panels and beyond next Wed., they are what us snow lovers have been waiting for all year. Nut I hate warmth. I despise it. I don't see next weekend cooldown being strong enough to overcome the warm air intrusion. I hope I'm wrong but to me the mid-month long range looks most promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 17 minutes ago, canderson said: I hate warmth. I despise it. I don't see next weekend cooldown being strong enough to overcome the warm air intrusion. I hope I'm wrong but to me the mid-month long range looks most promising. Then I guess your just depressed like me, as i too dislike warmth. On a bright note, I dont see 80 possible :). I fully expect to get trolled for that by some warmies.....lol Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 A severe thunderstorm outbreak in Western/Central PA on Friday. In February. I'm over it. This was a total non-winter and even nut's aforementioned potential cooldown (which won't happen) couldn't save it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 Just checking in from the other side of Mason-Dixon. Did the snow fail as bad up there as it did down here this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Just checking in from the other side of Mason-Dixon. Did the snow fail as bad up there as it did down here this winter? Our snow fall has been epic, you must not have got the memo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 If we get a severe storm Saturday, I hope pasnownut gets a March limbsnapping foot of snow. It'd be a perfect end to winter for all of us bad weather weirdos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 23 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Just checking in from the other side of Mason-Dixon. Did the snow fail as bad up there as it did down here this winter? did'nt you say something a while back along the lines of "if we arent going to get 30" of snow....you didnt want any? If so....you won bigly. I will say that March is growing some legs though. Thank God I dont have to sit and watch softball in gale force winds at 40deg. I've really missed that Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 16 minutes ago, pasnownut said: did'nt you say something a while back along the lines of "if we arent going to get 30" of snow....you didnt want any? If so....you won bigly. I will say that March is growing some legs though. Thank God I dont have to sit and watch softball in gale force winds at 40deg. I've really missed that Nut Yeah, March looks to have a few bullets left in the chamber. We all know what one of these bad boys is capable of in early to mid march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 6 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Yeah, March looks to have a few bullets left in the chamber. We all know what one of these bad boys is capable of in early to mid march. Will be interesting to see if the trends continue, or if they follow suit, and fold like a deck of cards as it gets near. Were still over a week out, and lets just say, I'd not want to slide many chips in at this juncture. I'll hold....not fold.... YET. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 No reason to fold yet, look at last year. We just need it to come together one time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 wasn't 1993 mild and then bam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 10 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: No reason to fold yet, look at last year. We just need it to come together one time! will be up seeing northern clients in next couple weeks. maybe we do lunch if time allows. I've got to start working on you to bring you back to the snow side....lol. obviously we need help as mo nature is feeling the bad juju in here. (and yes, I know....you wanna talk severe). Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 Let me know man, sounds great. I've been a little reinvigorated just seeing you southern dudes love of snow, it's infectious. I'll gladly talk severe, but you guys have a few weeks left to keep it winter related. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 2 hours ago, pasnownut said: Will be interesting to see if the trends continue, or if they follow suit, and fold like a deck of cards as it gets near. Were still over a week out, and lets just say, I'd not want to slide many chips in at this juncture. I'll hold....not fold.... YET. Nut If we're playing poker to describe the season, you are at a moment where you're one move left. If you have a hand, you go all-in or risk being blinded out and having to go all-in just to win everybody's buy-in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 1 hour ago, Wmsptwx said: Let me know man, sounds great. I've been a little reinvigorated just seeing you southern dudes love of snow, it's infectious. I'll gladly talk severe, but you guys have a few weeks left to keep it winter related. Heck right now I'd takes good thunderboomer. This winter is b o r i n g........ Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 1 minute ago, Atomixwx said: If we're playing poker to describe the season, you are at a moment where you're one move left. If you have a hand, you go all-in or risk being blinded out and having to go all-in just to win everybody's buy-in. Heck w it.... all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 Another analogy this winters been like playin Russian roulette w/ 5 in the chamber at every spin. Nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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