Itstrainingtime Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Awesome stuff guys. Models at 12z really put the hammer down, things have backed off a bit with the 18z suite. (at least in the southern tier) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Down to 42ºF, with a light NE breeze. 38º here just waiting for the snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 8, 2017 Author Share Posted February 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, skiier04 said: I was thinking the same thing. They really seem to have been ultra conservative this year. Last event they didnt even get an advisory posted until 5 hours after snow started here and the region got 3-5" Then they also have this map posted, while the WWA text still says 2-5"... Yea either way were facing down a decent event. I'm not too worried about the semantics of warning vs advisory in our area. If UNV doesn't get a verified warning it's likely going to be a high end advisory. Whether they decide to expand or ride is probably gonna hinge on how well things start off later this evening. And yea that last event with the late issued advisory I ended up verifying a warning (6.3") down here for that one haha. They didn't use my report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 10 minutes ago, skiier04 said: Then they also have this map posted, while the WWA text still says 2-5"... Yup, just like a posted a little while ago. That graphic is more in line with my point/click forecast, while the warning statement still says 5-8 inches... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 19 minutes ago, skiier04 said: I was thinking the same thing. They really seem to have been ultra conservative this year. Last event they didnt even get an advisory posted until 5 hours after snow started here and the region got 3-5" Then they also have this map posted, while the WWA text still says 2-5"... CTPis always last to the dance. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 winter storm warning extended URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service STATE COLLEGE PA 555 PM EST Wed Feb 8 2017 PAZ019-025>028-042-045-046-049>053-091100- /O.UPG.KCTP.WW.Y.0007.170209T0300Z-170209T1500Z/ /O.EXA.KCTP.WS.W.0002.170209T0300Z-170209T1500Z/ Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Sullivan- Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Columbia- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF State College, Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Laporte, Lock Haven, Williamsport, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Danville, Sunbury, Shamokin, Bloomsburg, and Berwick 555 PM EST Wed Feb 8 2017 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY... The National Weather Service in STATE COLLEGE has issued a Winter Storm Warning for snow......which is in effect from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Thursday. The Winter Weather Advisory is no longer in effect. * Rain late in the evening briefly mixes with sleet before quickly changing to snow late tonight. * Heaviest snow from midnight into the predawn hours. Rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour possible. * Heaviest snow ends by daybreak with snow tapering off by mid morning. * Total snow accumulation 5 to 7 inches. * Hazardous travel conditions on snow covered roads with low visibility. * Longer commute times Thursday morning with reduced speeds. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation reminds motorists to adjust speeds based on driving conditions and to take it slow in ice and snow. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Is that all of us? Have we all been warned? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Atomixwx said: Is that all of us? Have we all been warned? Just 2001kx left out right now... he'll cash in on the backend squalls anyway . Hope this works out for all of us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 12 minutes ago, skiier04 said: Just 2001kx left out right now... he'll cash in on the backend squalls anyway . Hope this works out for all of us! On the outside looking in...Not so sure of cashing in on the squalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 8, 2017 Author Share Posted February 8, 2017 26 minutes ago, djr5001 said: winter storm warning extended Ask and you shall receive I guess haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 8, 2017 Author Share Posted February 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, 2001kx said: On the outside looking in...Not so sure of cashing in on the squalls. Well I mean your still looking good haha, the new most likely snowmap they have out has 6" for Clearfield. Almost the southern half of the county is in 6"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Anyone able to interpret the following sounding?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Well I mean your still looking good haha, the new most likely snowmap they have out has 6" for Clearfield. Almost the southern half of the county is in 6"+. Sorry for the weenie question but how can you find these maps from the CTP site? All I've been able to find is the images from the forecasts tab. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 8, 2017 Author Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: Anyone able to interpret the following sounding? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro A nearly saturated column all the way to about 300mb (near the tropopause). The red lines on the left where the mb numbers are indicate omega (lift), which there looks to be plenty of from about 800mb all the way up through 400mb. The short portion of the red temp line that is yellow indicates where the dendritic growth zone is (-12 to -17C). The DGZ is within some decent omega, so one could expect some good snow growth. 800mb is where the warmest temps of the column reside (a few degrees below 0ºC, so the flakes could aggregate as well... something heavy_wx pointed out last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 8, 2017 Author Share Posted February 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, skiier04 said: Sorry for the weenie question but how can you find these maps from the CTP site? All I've been able to find is the images from the forecasts tab. On the main CTP page mouse over the "Current Hazards" tab and select winter, and it'll take you to the page that has all the winter products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 A nearly saturated column all the way to about 300mb (near the tropopause). The red lines on the left where the mb numbers are indicate omega (lift), which there looks to be plenty of from about 800mb all the way up through 400mb. The short portion of the red temp line that is yellow indicates where the dendritic growth zone is (-12 to -17C). The DGZ is within some decent omega, so one could expect some good snow growth. 800mb is where the warmest temps of the column reside (a few degrees below 0ºC, so the flakes could aggregate as well... something heavy_wx pointed out last night. Thank you MAG!that was for Harrisburg area at 09Z from the 18Z NAM. Here is the 700mb vertical velocity for same time. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 17 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: On the main CTP page mouse over the "Current Hazards" tab and select winter, and it'll take you to the page that has all the winter products. Actually if you scroll down the main page the winter weather icon will take you to the same place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 9, 2017 Author Share Posted February 9, 2017 20z HuRRR looks pretty solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 http://www.weather.gov/ctp/winter http://www.weather.gov/btv/winterseverity?id=PHI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 9, 2017 Author Share Posted February 9, 2017 Initial precip arriving as light rain, 39ºF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Thanks Mag! Looks like there is going to be some decent snow ratio's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 hour ago, MAG5035 said: Well I mean your still looking good haha, the new most likely snowmap they have out has 6" for Clearfield. Almost the southern half of the county is in 6"+. Yeah i was talking more about the warning vs advisory. Will take 4-6 anyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, 2001kx said: Will take 4-6 anyday. Yeah, I heard that about you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Hank Margusity reporting 5-6 inches in central Ohio. Considering the deepening of the low as it scoots on, that I imagine to be promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 I forgot that guy existed. Is he wearing that big daddy hat or whatever the f it was? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 I think he changed to a toque a few years back. Does a new head piece every few years. People stopped watching when he donned a "Big Daddy" turban before the 30 incher last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 I miss Jim Kosek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickg2 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 IT looks like we have been moved up in amounts. We are in the 8+ range now. The schools have already closed for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Point forecast is 5-10" here now... good luck to all... no way i'm sleeping tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 I think I low balled too much on my totals for in here. Numbers out in Ohio are promising. Maybe a tick up to whatever I have. Good luck to all my northern brethren. I'm hoping to see asteroids falling for a few hours to get my sloppy inch of paste down here. I'll be up for it thanks to overnights. Hope I have so company for later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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