Winter Wizard Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 GFS moved about 50 miles NW on that run. 6+ for the entire subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, kdskidoo said: not sure what's going on with the water. we had a plumber from Lock Haven there friday afternoon and he thinks we need a new well pump. hopefully it's not the other option, low water level in the well. I'll probably be heading up next week one day to get the repair work done, I'll see what's left up there at that time. I really hope the longer range holds and we get a few more good storms this season, we need to make up for last year and the first part of this year. do you have heat tape on well pipe to cabin? Thats a must. I've had mine frozen several times. Heat tape. Prob solved. if pump is humming, its not the pump. PM me if you need to chat so we dont clutter up the thread. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Winter Wizard said: GFS moved about 50 miles NW on that run. 6+ for the entire subforum. wow. just saw that. Yes better for everyone, and I look safeish down here too. Starting to feel good about this. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Ok red taggers and/or other knowlegable folks. What's the difference between 10:1 and Kuchera based ratios? According to Pivotal Weather, at a 10:1 ratio I line up for a 10 inch snowfall, while the Kuchera ratio shows 15 inches. Which one is generally more accurate and why do the model pages show both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Models getting colder, wetter and stronger. Good to see this trend as we approach game time.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Last post before zonking back out. GFS was a reassurance on snow potential around the subforum. The evolution was pure and was similar actually to the Euro, but more moisture laden which I mentioned last night that the Euro can underdo precip (Blizzard was prime example last year). It's looking great. Those of you from York on east, sharpen the shovels and get the Alieve. It's going to be a formidable paste bomb for southern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, Voyager said: Ok red taggers and/or other knowlegable folks. What's the difference between 10:1 and Kuchera based ratios? According to Pivotal Weather, at a 10:1 ratio I line up for a 10 inch snowfall, while the Kuchera ratio shows 15 inches. Which one is generally more accurate and why do the model pages show both? Kuchera ratios take into account the thermal layer above and not just the standard 10:1 conversion rate with regard to liquid. It's a complex algorithm that notes temps within the boundary layer and notable regions within the DGZ. The ratios up your way are higher on Kuchera given the increased dynamics and mid level forcing over the profile. Heavy really had a great write up using Bufkit analysis last night that interpreted the sounding and why ratios are higher in certain spots. Hope that helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 The Kuchera method takes into consideration the ratios that the model shows throughout the storm. For example, we know the storm will transition from rain over to snow. The water equivalent of the snow falling at the beginning will be less than 10:1. However, the column is supposed to turn progressively colder throughout the storm all the way to the very end, with ratios increasing from 10:1 up to 12:1 up to 15:1. If that is truly the way the storm plays out then the ratio will not be 10:1, but higher...meaning instead of 1" of liquid producing 10" of snow, the same liquid produces 12" of snow. If it's 15:1 then the 1" of liquid produces 15" of snow. (From an amateur's viewpoint, fwiw) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just watching the mesoanalysis stuff this morning it is no surprise that some are finally seeing the spike to near 60 degrees with the 925mb analysis still relatively warm at the moment. As noted with this 850mb analysis, and other images not included, the cold air push is on so now to see how far south and how fast it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Thanks Millville and Carlisle. That helps as I didn't really know the difference. The next question is, does Kuchera take account of a changing thermal profile, or is it fixed for the duration of the storm? I just find 15 inches a bit extreme, even though it'll probably cool faster and deeper up here than down south, considering how fast this storm is in and out of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, Voyager said: Thanks Millville and Carlisle. That helps as I didn't really know the difference. The next question is, does Kuchera take account of a changing thermal profile, or is it fixed for the duration of the storm? I just find 15 inches a bit extreme, even though it'll probably cool faster and deeper up here than down south, considering how fast this storm is in and out of here. I think it is constantly recalculating the ratio for every incremental time period it is forecasting. So, the ratio is constantly changing throughout the storm. The final storm total represents what I think is simply the average ratio from the entire event, then applied to the total liquid forecast, to come up with the snowfall accumulation totals. You can also calculate it in reverse by taking the snowfall total and dividing that by the liquid total to come up with the storm ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, Voyager said: Thanks Millville and Carlisle. That helps as I didn't really know the difference. The next question is, does Kuchera take account of a changing thermal profile, or is it fixed for the duration of the storm? I just find 15 inches a bit extreme, even though it'll probably cool faster and deeper up here than down south, considering how fast this storm is in and out of here. I think the answer is yes, as the thermal profiles change, I cant imagine a static valuation being applied to a thermal profile. Thats how you get ratios. Make sense? Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Thunder snow Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 It's 63 at my office in downtown Harrisburg. 4-6" snow starts in less than 12 hours. That's ... different. This is out of here by 9ish tomorrow, right? My wife has a legislative meeting in Gettysburg tomorrow at noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 11 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Thunder snow Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Been a while since i've witnessed it. Hope so. quite a dynamic fast hitter. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Enjoy the snow guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 I'm actually thinking of getting my snow blower out, which i wasn't planning on doing. Sticking with my 3-5 for IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Horst warns high bust potential and that the roadways are very, very warm. This could be a deal where you have 5" on the roof and the road is just a slushfest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, canderson said: Horts warns high bust potential and that the roadways are very, very warm. This could be a deal where you have 5" on the roof and the road is just a slushfest. He literally said this is one of the hardest storms to predict in over 30 years in the business...could be 1" or 10"...take your pick... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Lots of factors but biggest one I see is how quickly it starts cranking.If it takes to long to start cranking, easily could be looking at 2" of slop.But if it does crank, could be looking at those 10" numbers.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 18 minutes ago, canderson said: Horts warns high bust potential and that the roadways are very, very warm. This could be a deal where you have 5" on the roof and the road is just a slushfest. I really think the timing of this couldn't be any more ideal for the snow to accumulate. If we were looking at a 1-3" event over say 6 hours then yes we likely wouldn't see much roadway accumulations due to a lack of quick enough cooling. Rates at 1-2" or so an hour for a few hours during peak radiational cooling time will accumulate, especially since we are in early February and its not like we have been above freezing at night for a week plus (last night was first in Feb I didn't at least hit freezing mark at night). Horst has much much more experience than me so I likely could end up very wrong lol, but I do think some others (not speaking on here) are acting like its going to be no big deal because its been warm the last few days which to me is silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 We get to pick now? Does it have to be 10? Can't I take more? Can I have his? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Euro close to a foot in LNSSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Superstorm said: Euro close to a foot in LNS Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk How does rest of the area make out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickg2 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 This is like the blizzard of last year for us in NEPA. We are on the edge and we could get creamed or it could miss us. My point and click has me getting about 6.5 inches of snow. NWS is usually on the high side. most of the other forecasts have us at the 5 to 8 or 3 to 6 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Looks like a good 6 to 8 across entire area. Foot in mountains.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 NYC, LI and NE absolutely crushed. 12 to 18 and 2 foot plus readings.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Holy Euro... Now the snowy outlier 6-10" for State college after 2-3" at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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