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Central PA - February 2017


MAG5035

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2 hours ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Nut,

it seems that you've become somewhat of a celebrity in the MA forum today.   They are brutal.   I'm a rocks throw away from MD but I stay away.   

All good man. I enjoy the convo and offer what I know and learn as I go. It's a forum...not a plank. 

Nut

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42 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

I want to know what Mike (MAG) has to say. I snow when he says I snow. :)

MAG will likely be chiming in this evening. I like to hear his thoughts too. You know what they say, put 2 forecasters in a room and you'll get 3 different forecasts lol. I like your spot right now for a good heavy, wet snow. I'll make a call tomorrow. I'll be working overnights on Thursday, so I'll be up already watching it all fall down. At least I hope so down here. Little more questionable here, but good for NMD on north. 

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32 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

Meltdown in the mid atlantic forum today over the distinct possibility of not getting snow.

Meltdown in the New York City thread and they will be getting snow. 

Thank God for this special little place in here. 

What else is new :axe: caught in the middle this time unfortunately.

I've already given my two cents on it over the years I was in PA, so...yeah.

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1 hour ago, maytownpawx said:

I want to know what Mike (MAG) has to say. I snow when he says I snow. :)

Well, models have seemed to have taken a more decisive shift to focusing the heavy snow threat in the southern half of PA today, and making it quite a formidable snow threat as the GFS and Canadian have joined the Euro/NAM with having a deeper low. 18z RGEM has a bomb. Did notice GFS and esp NAM at 18z kind of backed their heavy precip axis southeast a bit while maintaining most of the overall extent they had at 12z. We shall see what the 0z has to say. 

Like I said the other day, the Mid-Atl region probably has more of a thread the needle situation than we do. The low had to be pretty deep and the cold needs time to press down that far. Up here, we should be able to establish cold quick enough to minimize p-type issues..although I think the LSV counties from the turnpike south still aren't out of the woods to losing some QPF to rain/transition. But overall, the track is a pretty nice one for C-PA/Sus Valley snow currently. This looks to be of the hard hitting 6-8 hour variety storm. So the heavier rates should help cool the column and get accumulating snow quickly on those roadways and ground that just seems to never cool down enough to allow for such things (eyeroll). I'll probably talk some numbers after I see 0z later. CTP watch placement looks pretty good for now (remember Sus Valley criteria is now 5"). Still think best snow stays under I-80 (I-84 NE PA) but I've seen enough from the models today to acknowledge that the north central (IPT region) should see accumulating snow..potentially of the advisory variety.    

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1 hour ago, maytownpawx said:

Meltdown in the mid atlantic forum today over the distinct possibility of not getting snow.

Meltdown in the New York City thread and they will be getting snow. 

Thank God for this special little place in here. 

The only meltdown here will be from me since I have to play in that crap with an 18 wheeler...lol

Or should I say fml...

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40 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Well, models have seemed to have taken a more decisive shift to focusing the heavy snow threat in the southern half of PA today, and making it quite a formidable snow threat as the GFS and Canadian have joined the Euro/NAM with having a deeper low. 18z RGEM has a bomb. Did notice GFS and esp NAM at 18z kind of backed their heavy precip axis southeast a bit while maintaining most of the overall extent they had at 12z. We shall see what the 0z has to say. 

Like I said the other day, the Mid-Atl region probably has more of a thread the needle situation than we do. The low had to be pretty deep and the cold needs time to press down that far. Up here, we should be able to establish cold quick enough to minimize p-type issues..although I think the LSV counties from the turnpike south still aren't out of the woods to losing some QPF to rain/transition. But overall, the track is a pretty nice one for C-PA/Sus Valley snow currently. This looks to be of the hard hitting 6-8 hour variety storm. So the heavier rates should help cool the column and get accumulating snow quickly on those roadways and ground that just seems to never cool down enough to allow for such things (eyeroll). I'll probably talk some numbers after I see 0z later. CTP watch placement looks pretty good for now (remember Sus Valley criteria is now 5"). Still think best snow stays under I-80 (I-84 NE PA) but I've seen enough from the models today to acknowledge that the north central (IPT region) should see accumulating snow..potentially of the advisory variety.    

Good stuff. I agree with everything. I mentioned that 700'+ will be the deciding factor for areas into MD which makes the PA line a good place to be in the lower tier. With decent cyclogenesis, eastern portion of the state should transition to pretty robust snow. I was a bit skeptical earlier on anywhere east of Susquehanna, but with bombing low and location of greatest lift from Gettysburg on east, that ship has sailed. Told my sister who lives near Schwenksville that she could get hit hard. She hasn't heard a word. People will def be caught off guard. 

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20 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

Thanks much MillvilleWx and MAG. Awesome stuff from both of you!

and keep us update as you see fit.

will be interesting to see what the 0z's have in store, as were far enough out for a few tweaks, that will make....or break for some.

Nut

 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, pawatch said:

Looks like some our southern boys could get hit.

image.jpg

Also could strike the Scranton/WB area pretty squarely and that has been a region that has had fringe problems for several seasons going it seems. NortheastPAwx looks pretty good either there or NYC where he is now. 

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