Central PA - February 2017

[CarlislePaWx]

Measured 0.7" of snowfall here in Carlisle.  Most of it has melted now since temp has risen to 36, although the skies remain overcast at the moment.  Radar looks like something might try to move back in here.  Guessing it would still be snow, but it won't accumulate.

When I saw last night's 0Z NAM I thought I'd be lucky to see a quarter inch, so somewhat surprised with nearly 3/4".

Made it down to 22 degrees overnight before overcast moved in.  Coldest night in weeks.

[2001kx]

5 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

How much do you have?

I dont have a snow board set up but off the picnic table i have around 5"

[MAG5035]

40 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Congrats to the True Central guys and Mag for this one. Was looking pretty good yesterday on the models. Really providing the punch over that area of PA. Keep it rolling!

I was expecting this type of stuff to be along and just above the I-80 corridor yesterday, it seems some of the good forcing and high rates/ratios ended up a bit further south. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Partly sunny and 41 here. Pretty typical downsloping scenario playing out down here. Congrats out west! 

[Wmsptwx]

Under 2 here, downsloping killed Mr.Clipper

[Voyager]

10 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

Partly sunny and 41 here. Pretty typical downsloping scenario playing out down here. Congrats out west! 

 

6 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Under 2 here, downsloping killed Mr.Clipper

Yup. Same here, and per the current radar loop, instead of precip moving east and filling in our dry slot, it appears to actually be retreating back farther west. I'd say the 1/4 inch we got so far  is what we end up with out of this one.

[Wmsptwx]

I'm just happy with anything of excitement, we're in a bad spot. Too low of elevation to cash in on borderline storms, too far away from coast to get in on deathbands and too far East for clippers to dump.

[MAG5035]

Well looks like storm total will be 6.3". In a bit of a turn of events.. precip has changed to mainly rain here in the last half hour. 

[2001kx]

Still all snow here but temp is up to 36

[Rickg2]

We have about an Inch in Wilkes-Barre, temp is around 32 so the roads are iffy in some spots.

 

Rick

[Voyager]

47 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

I'm just happy with anything of excitement

There is no excitement in this. Eight hours of flurries/very light snow that adds up to a quarter inch is depressing actually. 

[Itstrainingtime]

7 minutes ago, Voyager said:

There is no excitement in this. Eight hours of flurries/very light snow that adds up to a quarter inch is depressing actually. 

Agreed 100% The inch of snow I received yesterday in 20 minutes was far, far more exciting to me than double that amount over hours and hours. 

[Itstrainingtime]

By the way, I'm up to 44 now and in the sun I dare say it feels really nice! 

[Winter Wizard]

Probably got 4-5 inches in State College...definitely an overperformer here. 

[Voyager]

51 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

By the way, I'm up to 44 now and in the sun I dare say it feels really nice! 

Wow...

We have the second worst of the worst (first being 33 and rain) here. Dark overcast with the occasional flurry and 31 degrees. 

[2001kx]

1 hour ago, 2001kx said:

Still all snow here but temp is up to 36

about 10 mins after this it went to rain / snow mix.

 

Now back to snow.

[pawatch]

Just shy of 2" here. Couple of pretty heavy bursts during the day. I'll take it.

[MAG5035]

The change to rain this afternoon dampened what was quite the overachiever. Probably wasted a couple more tenths of precip, and the rise in temps made a fairly light snow into something darn near immovable. Snowpack measurements were 8-9" early this afternoon before the changeover. Now shrunk to 5", so I guess it's a net of 2-3" for the day. Hopefully temps get back to freezing soon cuz with the stiff breeze that pack is going to keep shrinking. I don't think we have had a synoptic type event that hasn't involved mix or a changeover yet this winter. 

But can't really complain at all with 11.2" in the last 5 days. It's time to get the rest of the subrforum involved as we get into February. 

[canderson]

That weekend storm might not get east of Tennessee. Then a warm up into the mod 40s for a god few days it seems is likely. 

[pasnownut]

13 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

The change to rain this afternoon dampened what was quite the overachiever. Probably wasted a couple more tenths of precip, and the rise in temps made a fairly light snow into something darn near immovable. Snowpack measurements were 8-9" early this afternoon before the changeover. Now shrunk to 5", so I guess it's a net of 2-3" for the day. Hopefully temps get back to freezing soon cuz with the stiff breeze that pack is going to keep shrinking. I don't think we have had a synoptic type event that hasn't involved mix or a changeover yet this winter. 

But can't really complain at all with 11.2" in the last 5 days. It's time to get the rest of the subrforum involved as we get into February. 

Glad to see you got some snowpack to preserve.  Weekend looks like a light event for CPA and points north (at best) but hey, its snow on snow....whatever you get.  Couple day warmup due to monster cutter then trailing energy takes a run at us with a nice event (as modeled).  Based on evolution of it, it looks like a hybrid anaftontal event/caboose typa deal.  

Not our best way to get snow round these parts, but hey.....beggars cant.....

 

Nut

 

[pasnownut]

and 12z GFS Op just moved that cutter about 250 miles SE  and is much flatter flow.  Fortunately my years of doing this have taught me to not flip n flop like every model run.

Hoping you all that have snow may get a chance to keep some...and add some to it as yesterdays flop is todays flip.....

Still not convinced pattern wont get better, especially since longer range tellies are starting to signal as such...as well as a little SSW event being discussed by ISO and Tip.  They think it COULD already be underway.  Heres to hoping for a fantastic finish to a craptastic start.

Nut

 

 

[MillvilleWx]

23 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

and 12z GFS Op just moved that cutter about 250 miles SE  and is much flatter flow.  Fortunately my years of doing this have taught me to not flip n flop like every model run.

Hoping you all that have snow may get a chance to keep some...and add some to it as yesterdays flop is todays flip.....

Still not convinced pattern wont get better, especially since longer range tellies are starting to signal as such...as well as a little SSW event being discussed by ISO and Tip.  They think it COULD already be underway.  Heres to hoping for a fantastic finish to a craptastic start.

Nut

 

 

Great talking points from both as always. I'm not a huge follower of the Strat, but I understand the intricacies and the role it plays. It's certainly looking more promising than it has all winter long way upstairs, but the areas south of I-80 are running thin on time as climo begins to flip slowly toward a warmer regime prepping for Spring time. We have seen in the past, on more than one occasion, with Late February through most of March coming in like a Lion and being the best part of winter. Not a huge given, but it's not some crazy, anomaly that doesn't occur. We shall see how everything unfolds. The CanSips, which has been crazy good (much to our chagrin) this winter is coming out with the best look we've had all season with regard to ridge/trough placement. Given what is showing up on ensembles lately for the long range, that might be our ticket for some to finally get out of the snow drought. Question is, is it too late? Again, we'll see in the next week how everything is progressing.

Keeping an eye on the "shorter" term, next week looks like a rain event for most of the sub-forum, but you can see the GFS kind of hinting at the bulldozer into the lakes being less amplified compared to the previous runs. That would certainly bode well for at least our brethren at the northern half of the state as cold air may be less quick to erode and some front end frozen would be possible. Elevation areas like the Laurels could sneak some front end frozen as well if the timing plays out right. Interesting to see what the Euro does with the system and remains the amped monster its been portraying. Looking beyond that system, that will set the stage for a front later in the week that will certainly bring in the cold as the systems stacks over the Lakes and high pressure looks to barrel out of Canada. The airmass would be pretty cold, and any type of front could see a flip for areas out in the high country, even with the weaker GFS portrayal of the lower over Quebec. For the rest of the sub-forum, I would keep tabs behind any type of front. I took a look at the forecast soundings across the state, along with the mid and upper vort panels and it seems like the threat of more squally type snow could be possible given the representation of the GFS. Fairly steep mid-level lapse rates with low and mid level moisture present would garner the chance for some east of the mountains, and definitely a risk for those that were just hit the past few days. Trailing vort on the backside of the main lobe of energy coupled with peak diurnal heating aided some low-mid level instability for the western half of the state. Something to keep an eye on. I would also watch for any trailing energy along any front. The models this year has been enamored with being too bullish with fronts and squashing the SE Ridge axis too much at long leads. If the SE ridge can pump a bit more, that may slow the progression of any boundary and stall it closer to the Atlantic sea board. That could, in theory, open the door for something to develop on the tail end of a front and move up the coast. Not a given by any means, but its something to watch and has been expressed by some of the ensemble members via the EPS last night. They talked about it on the Mid Atlantic forum and Bob Chill wrote a great piece alluding to the potential. Worth a read and just my 2 cents. 

[pasnownut]

42 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Great talking points from both as always. I'm not a huge follower of the Strat, but I understand the intricacies and the role it plays. It's certainly looking more promising than it has all winter long way upstairs, but the areas south of I-80 are running thin on time as climo begins to flip slowly toward a warmer regime prepping for Spring time. We have seen in the past, on more than one occasion, with Late February through most of March coming in like a Lion and being the best part of winter. Not a huge given, but it's not some crazy, anomaly that doesn't occur. We shall see how everything unfolds. The CanSips, which has been crazy good (much to our chagrin) this winter is coming out with the best look we've had all season with regard to ridge/trough placement. Given what is showing up on ensembles lately for the long range, that might be our ticket for some to finally get out of the snow drought. Question is, is it too late? Again, we'll see in the next week how everything is progressing.

Keeping an eye on the "shorter" term, next week looks like a rain event for most of the sub-forum, but you can see the GFS kind of hinting at the bulldozer into the lakes being less amplified compared to the previous runs. That would certainly bode well for at least our brethren at the northern half of the state as cold air may be less quick to erode and some front end frozen would be possible. Elevation areas like the Laurels could sneak some front end frozen as well if the timing plays out right. Interesting to see what the Euro does with the system and remains the amped monster its been portraying. Looking beyond that system, that will set the stage for a front later in the week that will certainly bring in the cold as the systems stacks over the Lakes and high pressure looks to barrel out of Canada. The airmass would be pretty cold, and any type of front could see a flip for areas out in the high country, even with the weaker GFS portrayal of the lower over Quebec. For the rest of the sub-forum, I would keep tabs behind any type of front. I took a look at the forecast soundings across the state, along with the mid and upper vort panels and it seems like the threat of more squally type snow could be possible given the representation of the GFS. Fairly steep mid-level lapse rates with low and mid level moisture present would garner the chance for some east of the mountains, and definitely a risk for those that were just hit the past few days. Trailing vort on the backside of the main lobe of energy coupled with peak diurnal heating aided some low-mid level instability for the western half of the state. Something to keep an eye on. I would also watch for any trailing energy along any front. The models this year has been enamored with being too bullish with fronts and squashing the SE Ridge axis too much at long leads. If the SE ridge can pump a bit more, that may slow the progression of any boundary and stall it closer to the Atlantic sea board. That could, in theory, open the door for something to develop on the tail end of a front and move up the coast. Not a given by any means, but its something to watch and has been expressed by some of the ensemble members via the EPS last night. They talked about it on the Mid Atlantic forum and Bob Chill wrote a great piece alluding to the potential. Worth a read and just my 2 cents. 

as always, we appreciate the insight.  I'm hopeful that the storm after the storm next week has a chance, but anafrontal type setups typically are a rarity round these parts.  Looking at the 500mb flow, says yes were in troube, but looking at the 850's in the teens and never getting out of the mid to upper 30's is a far cry from yesterday.  Point to me made this pattern while crappy, can change/surprise, and timing is the key for it to deliver the goods...until a more stable storm environ emerges....if if does.

Here's to hoping.  

 

Nut

 

[MAG5035]

11 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Glad to see you got some snowpack to preserve.  Weekend looks like a light event for CPA and points north (at best) but hey, its snow on snow....whatever you get.  Couple day warmup due to monster cutter then trailing energy takes a run at us with a nice event (as modeled).  Based on evolution of it, it looks like a hybrid anaftontal event/caboose typa deal.  

Not our best way to get snow round these parts, but hey.....beggars cant.....

 

Nut

 

Well it took 30 hours, but it has finally dropped back below freezing. So basically we're right back to where we were at two days ago with regards to snow.. 2-3" in most of the backyard, patchy coverage down the hill in town (Bellwood) and barely anything left in Altoona. Shoveled a full ton of stone out of my truck onto our icy driveway after it was plowed, and it all melted anyways. This winter.. haha. 

[MAG5035]

6 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

Great talking points from both as always. I'm not a huge follower of the Strat, but I understand the intricacies and the role it plays. It's certainly looking more promising than it has all winter long way upstairs, but the areas south of I-80 are running thin on time as climo begins to flip slowly toward a warmer regime prepping for Spring time. We have seen in the past, on more than one occasion, with Late February through most of March coming in like a Lion and being the best part of winter. Not a huge given, but it's not some crazy, anomaly that doesn't occur. We shall see how everything unfolds. The CanSips, which has been crazy good (much to our chagrin) this winter is coming out with the best look we've had all season with regard to ridge/trough placement. Given what is showing up on ensembles lately for the long range, that might be our ticket for some to finally get out of the snow drought. Question is, is it too late? Again, we'll see in the next week how everything is progressing.

Keeping an eye on the "shorter" term, next week looks like a rain event for most of the sub-forum, but you can see the GFS kind of hinting at the bulldozer into the lakes being less amplified compared to the previous runs. That would certainly bode well for at least our brethren at the northern half of the state as cold air may be less quick to erode and some front end frozen would be possible. Elevation areas like the Laurels could sneak some front end frozen as well if the timing plays out right. Interesting to see what the Euro does with the system and remains the amped monster its been portraying. Looking beyond that system, that will set the stage for a front later in the week that will certainly bring in the cold as the systems stacks over the Lakes and high pressure looks to barrel out of Canada. The airmass would be pretty cold, and any type of front could see a flip for areas out in the high country, even with the weaker GFS portrayal of the lower over Quebec. For the rest of the sub-forum, I would keep tabs behind any type of front. I took a look at the forecast soundings across the state, along with the mid and upper vort panels and it seems like the threat of more squally type snow could be possible given the representation of the GFS. Fairly steep mid-level lapse rates with low and mid level moisture present would garner the chance for some east of the mountains, and definitely a risk for those that were just hit the past few days. Trailing vort on the backside of the main lobe of energy coupled with peak diurnal heating aided some low-mid level instability for the western half of the state. Something to keep an eye on. I would also watch for any trailing energy along any front. The models this year has been enamored with being too bullish with fronts and squashing the SE Ridge axis too much at long leads. If the SE ridge can pump a bit more, that may slow the progression of any boundary and stall it closer to the Atlantic sea board. That could, in theory, open the door for something to develop on the tail end of a front and move up the coast. Not a given by any means, but its something to watch and has been expressed by some of the ensemble members via the EPS last night. They talked about it on the Mid Atlantic forum and Bob Chill wrote a great piece alluding to the potential. Worth a read and just my 2 cents. 

One positive thing i've seen is more consistent western ridging both lately and also in the computer model forecasts. I was quite pessimistic on that returning with much consistency this winter given the very insistent western trough the first half of the winter. So was basically taking a "prove me wrong" approach with regards to seeing the pattern change in the longer ranges until it finally actually materialized. I feel the same way about the NAO consequently, but I still don't see anything to lead me to think we'll get help via a classic NAO block anytime soon. I do think the emergence of some MJO influence the last couple weeks may have helped shuffle things a bit.. with the recent pulse into Phase 1-2. Model forecasts also look pretty consistent in a pretty decent MJO pulse eventually getting around the ring into Phase 8 in the longer range. Of course it's going through the highly corresponding eastern US warmth phases 4-5-6 ( generally lower amplitude) and weighted warmer phase 7 to get there. Given the MJO comes with a bit of a lag time, that doesn't necessarily jive initially with the cold air progged behind the next more significant system early-mid week next week but that particular influence may limit the reach and length of time the cold resides. We shall see..not that it's ever easy but it certainly seemed harder than usual this year to really key in on things in the medium-long range (D7+).

 

[sauss06]

Sounds like some snow north of Harrisburg this morning, Halifax reporting 2''. 

[MillvilleWx]

11 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

One positive thing i've seen is more consistent western ridging both lately and also in the computer model forecasts. I was quite pessimistic on that returning with much consistency this winter given the very insistent western trough the first half of the winter. So was basically taking a "prove me wrong" approach with regards to seeing the pattern change in the longer ranges until it finally actually materialized. I feel the same way about the NAO consequently, but I still don't see anything to lead me to think we'll get help via a classic NAO block anytime soon. I do think the emergence of some MJO influence the last couple weeks may have helped shuffle things a bit.. with the recent pulse into Phase 1-2. Model forecasts also look pretty consistent in a pretty decent MJO pulse eventually getting around the ring into Phase 8 in the longer range. Of course it's going through the highly corresponding eastern US warmth phases 4-5-6 ( generally lower amplitude) and weighted warmer phase 7 to get there. Given the MJO comes with a bit of a lag time, that doesn't necessarily jive initially with the cold air progged behind the next more significant system early-mid week next week but that particular influence may limit the reach and length of time the cold resides. We shall see..not that it's ever easy but it certainly seemed harder than usual this year to really key in on things in the medium-long range (D7+).

 

I have zero faith in any sustained, -NAO that could help out the NE US for the end of the month through March. That signal is like chubecabra's and Big Foot. Every now and then, there's a siting, but then it vanishes. The MJO pulse is a huge plus though rotating out of the garbage of 4-5-6 and into phase 8. With a decent looking ridge axis, maybe there's some chance of getting a favorable look. Like you said though and I agree 100%, the violatility of going past Day 5-7 has been crazy this year. If you see one look, it's probably the opposite. Just been that type of winter. Here's to hoping!

[Wmsptwx]

This is a strange year for sure. Good news is, my bar is so low that anything seems like a win.

[paweather]

I was holding out as I don't want to be one the calling this winter over but looking at the models this morning there is just nothing through mid Feb right now. maybe, maybe some light snow Sunday but weak. .5" of snow thus far here so I might as well hope for records of lowest snowfall total in a winter. Even artic air will be transient when it comes in. Just no sustained cold to establish itself in the region.

Pretty insane if you ask me. unless we score a coup at least down here we are running out of time. once we get through mid-Feb Climo doesn't work in our favor in SCPA. we can only hope for a March 1993 for therapy of a bad winter.

[Wmsptwx]

It's harder to deal with for all you South central guys because you have been getting a crazy amount of blockbusters last decade. Last year was so boring up here that it makes this year seem less terrible.