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Central PA - February 2017


MAG5035

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9 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Look at one of our best winters in recent memory back in 09-10. There was only 1 inch in January of 2010 & nothing in March, but February was perhaps the best single month in MDT recorded history thanks to 2 great storms in 1 week.

Unfortunately, about the only two scenarios that could salvage anything for the ridge and valley / Susquehanna Valley areas this winter, the Feb 4, Feb 9, 2010 event, and Jan 23, 2016 are both once in a lifetime type events.

Given that snowstorms in these two regions come in either the "3-6 inch" or "3-6 feet" variety, we're going to need either 4 storms in about 20 days (long range apparently indicate early Spring) or one blockbuster one year after having a blockbuster.

I don't see it. MDT ends closer to 5 inches than 10 for the season.

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2 hours ago, Atomixwx said:

Unfortunately, about the only two scenarios that could salvage anything for the ridge and valley / Susquehanna Valley areas this winter, the Feb 4, Feb 9, 2010 event, and Jan 23, 2016 are both once in a lifetime type events.

Given that snowstorms in these two regions come in either the "3-6 inch" or "3-6 feet" variety, we're going to need either 4 storms in about 20 days (long range apparently indicate early Spring) or one blockbuster one year after having a blockbuster.

I don't see it. MDT ends closer to 5 inches than 10 for the season.

It seems to my untrained eye if the storm that is possible from next Sunday to Tuesday fails, we are in deep trouble if you're a snow lover.

I said before this season I don't care if we're shut out, I wanted the northern guys to get theres. To an extent they have, but it's been in what seems to be a very boring fashion for them. Hopefully they can cash in once.

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According to GFS and NAM Clearfield could be ground zero for the clipper.

 

This Afternoon
Snow showers, mainly before 4pm. High near 27. West wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
Tonight
A chance of snow showers before 7pm, then snow after 1am. Low around 17. Light and variable wind becoming south around 6 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Tuesday
Snow. High near 35. South wind 7 to 10 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
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Wow...just went through several rounds of heavy snow showers, the last one the most intense with less than 1/8 mile visibility and temp dropping to 28.5F.  All in all, the last one accumulated the best delivering about 0.3" and whitening the ground.

Looking forward to tonight's clipper even if it's only an inch.

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13 minutes ago, 2001kx said:

According to GFS and NAM Clearfield could be ground zero for the clipper.

 

This Afternoon
Snow showers, mainly before 4pm. High near 27. West wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
Tonight
A chance of snow showers before 7pm, then snow after 1am. Low around 17. Light and variable wind becoming south around 6 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Tuesday
Snow. High near 35. South wind 7 to 10 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

And if that's not enough next Sunday and next week as a whole looks the best we've seen all winter. Not sure why some think the winters over?

 

Nut

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15 hours ago, canderson said:

When did they get .9"? I've had none. We had 1" sleet before Christmas and about .4" on Dec 27.

There were 2 events back a few weeks ago that dropped 3"-4" total across most of Lancaster county. 1 event came on a Thursday evening, the next 1 came the following Saturday morning. MDT got clipped by at least 1 of those events. I received just over 2" from the 2 events, I'm 15 miles southeast of the airport. 

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Winter Weather Advisory
Weather Updated: Jan 30 1:58PM
Issued by the National Weather Service
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1AM EST TUE UNTIL 4PM EST TUE ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. * TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TAPE OFF BY MID AFTERNOON TUESDAY. THE MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE ADVERSELY IMPACTED, AS THE STEADIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. *
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3 minutes ago, 2001kx said:
Winter Weather Advisory
Weather Updated: Jan 30 1:58PM
Issued by the National Weather Service
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1AM EST TUE UNTIL 4PM EST TUE ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. * TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TAPE OFF BY MID AFTERNOON TUESDAY. THE MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE ADVERSELY IMPACTED, AS THE STEADIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. *

Wow....its like Mo Nature read your post about your sleds.  Stay home and enjoy every minute of it.  We've been waiting long enough.  

 

In the infamous words of Tommy Boy.....it's go time!!

(a tribute to the late Chris Farley for anyone that wasnt sure).

 

Nut

 

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2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Wow....its like Mo Nature read your post about your sleds.  Stay home and enjoy every minute of it.  We've been waiting long enough.  

 

In the infamous words of Tommy Boy.....it's go time!!

(a tribute to the late Chris Farley for anyone that wasnt sure).

 

Nut

 

Yeah but its just words right now...We'll see tomorrow :sled:

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12 minutes ago, 2001kx said:

Yeah but its just words right now...We'll see tomorrow :sled:

Yes....

this is true, but its better than what weve been seeing.  

Wish that low was traversing the Mason Dixon, then you'd be prime.  I hope we can eek out an inch or 2 down here.  Unlikely but heres to hoping.

 

Nut

 

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That was one of the best snow squalls I've ever experienced in my life in Manheim. Couldn't see the trees in the backyard about 150 feet away. Lasted about 10 minutes, and picked up a quick 0.4" or so. The Sun then came out and it's pretty much gone now. 

 

Glad you guys up central PA will get a good accumulation out of this clipper. Then Super Bowl weekend could get fun!

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41 minutes ago, AllWeather said:

That was one of the best snow squalls I've ever experienced in my life in Manheim. Couldn't see the trees in the backyard about 150 feet away. Lasted about 10 minutes, and picked up a quick 0.4" or so. The Sun then came out and it's pretty much gone now. 

 

Glad you guys up central PA will get a good accumulation out of this clipper. Then Super Bowl weekend could get fun!

missed it.  Frosted windows at work and I was in paperwork he!!

I did see like 5 or 6 big honkin dendrites float down at about 3" from the window though so I knew it was snowin.  

BOOOOO

 

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MDT at the 5pm update reported only a T of snow today. That was surprising considering they reported Heavy snow with .25 mile visibility at 1pm & recorded .03 of precip. So, they got the same squall that most of us experienced, but didn't at least put a couple of tenths of an inch of snow in the books ? Hopefully they will update this tonight with the final end of day report.

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GFS has seemed to be the most robust with QPF with regards to the clipper system the last couple runs. The 0z run has an area of 0.25"-0.50" hour 18 in west central PA (centered on 2001kx). Models in general look to be focusing best potential accumulations along the I-80 corridor in the western half of PA, where 3-5" should be pretty widespread. The same goes for the Laurel's region, where there will be some extra orographic enhancement. Ratios could be pretty decent as well, especially where there is some modest 700mb lifting (likely the I-80 corridor). 700mb temps are on the lower end of the ideal spectrum.. around -12 to 13ºC... but we could see at least 15-18:1 type stuff where we match that up with the forcing. I wouldn't be surprised to see some 6+ amounts pop up, especially if the higher GFS QPF is realized. Downsloping and overall track of the low and best QPF is going to kill the precip in the Sus Valley... I still don't think that region sees more than a general T-1. 01z HRRR does put a band through the Sus Valley between about 7-9am, so could be some amounts over an inch if area of precip ends up more robust. The AOO/UNV/IPT corridor should see 2-3". There will be additional upslope snows later tomorrow in the Laurel' behind the system itself. 

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