canderson Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 Harrisburg will have had at least 8 days over 50 and something like 160 consecutive hours without falling below freezing in January. That's remarkable. Absolutely remarking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 14 minutes ago, canderson said: Harrisburg will have had at least 8 days over 50 and something like 160 consecutive hours without falling below freezing in January. That's remarkable. Absolutely remarking. I think we all know its been ugly, but thanks for the confirmation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: I do. March is a cold windy month. Just make it white (since were just a hair late in getting it started) and then you can flick the warm switch in April. I'm confused, as while the signals aren't overwehlmingly awesome for cold and snow, they are by far and away the best look we've seen all year...and people are punting and grumbly. Just because the pattern has been largely CRAP, it IS still January. A decent 6-8 week stretch would sooth alot of my/our souls...before I go back into warm weather hibernation mode. Nut OK, you talked me into it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 You know it's bad when I look like an optimist in winter weather. We're only a solid advisory event from beating last year's total! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 I can't read a model to save my life honestly, and apparently there are many others in these sub-forums that can't either. But that isn't stopping them from making predictions. I was in the Philly thread this morning and one guy said the long range looks putrid, then I peruse the Mid Atlantic thread and there are some real optimistic opinions there. I'll say this about long range models. I had an epic winter in 2009-2010. Just about 70" fell in my back yard. Ironically, it all fell before February 11th. Winter was a total shutout after that date. Funny thing is, we were supposed to be in an epic pattern from the middle of February right through the beginning of March. That epic-ness deposited nothing-ness where I lived. Last year entering January the pattern looked awful. It was so awful i got 30" in 24 hours on the 22nd. Bottom line...sometimes good patterns don't produce, and sometimes we end up farting out diamonds from the depths of despair. Those calling it quits already for the winter are foolish IMO. You just never know. All it takes is 1 or 2 well timed and spaced waves and it can change your seasonal snowfall total in a hurry. Without that 1 storm last January i would have finished with exactly what Williamsport got last year. 1 storm down here was the difference between an abysmal 7" and an above average 37". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 41 minutes ago, sauss06 said: OK, you talked me into it! Your so easy....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 Mike, i haven't called it quits, i just have an outside project i'd like to get into in March, not April. i won't turn away snow though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 Farting out diamonds in the depths of despair... i just giggled my butt off. I may have that put on my headstone. Nut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 47 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: You know it's bad when I look like an optimist in winter weather. We're only a solid advisory event from beating last year's total! Setting a low bar is smart money. Just looks like at least the next 2 weeks and possibly more will offer better chances. Beyond that....roll em' nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 I'm not cancelling - it's hard to cancel something that's not started - but I just don't see any major environmental changes that allows cold air intrusion at the same time a storm cuts across the country with the jet placement south. Sure a massive storm can come out of nowhere - here's hoping it does! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 5 minutes ago, canderson said: I'm not cancelling - it's hard to cancel something that's not started - but I just don't see any major environmental changes that allows cold air intrusion at the same time a storm cuts across the country with the jet placement south. Sure a massive storm can come out of nowhere - here's hoping it does! With all due respect. You really can't say that if you know how to look at weather maps. Signs of change started a week ago and have been rather consistently showing up. Look at today's 500mb charts and if you don't see any real change then I find that telling if you position. Here's this Saturday we've not seen this yet all winter Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 And another so yall don't think I'm making this stuff up. It's not a 10 day dream any longer. Dies that mean tons if snow,maybe not but with a pattern like this I will take my chances as energy rotates around the base of the trough or with clippers. Timing is biggest challenge Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 my daughter was born in the winter of '96, it snows often on or give or take a few days around February 1st. She turns 21 next week so i'd pencil something in that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 1 hour ago, sauss06 said: my daughter was born in the winter of '96, it snows often on or give or take a few days around February 1st. She turns 21 next week so i'd pencil something in that time frame. If that's what it takes, have a few more kids would ya.... Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 5 hours ago, maytownpawx said: I can't read a model to save my life honestly, and apparently there are many others in these sub-forums that can't either. But that isn't stopping them from making predictions. I was in the Philly thread this morning and one guy said the long range looks putrid, then I peruse the Mid Atlantic thread and there are some real optimistic opinions there. I'll say this about long range models. I had an epic winter in 2009-2010. Just about 70" fell in my back yard. Ironically, it all fell before February 11th. Winter was a total shutout after that date. Funny thing is, we were supposed to be in an epic pattern from the middle of February right through the beginning of March. That epic-ness deposited nothing-ness where I lived. Last year entering January the pattern looked awful. It was so awful i got 30" in 24 hours on the 22nd. Bottom line...sometimes good patterns don't produce, and sometimes we end up farting out diamonds from the depths of despair. Those calling it quits already for the winter are foolish IMO. You just never know. All it takes is 1 or 2 well timed and spaced waves and it can change your seasonal snowfall total in a hurry. Without that 1 storm last January i would have finished with exactly what Williamsport got last year. 1 storm down here was the difference between an abysmal 7" and an above average 37". Poor Williamsport. The UNV area just doesn't have a great big storm climatology; I think it has been since 2010 that we have had a > 12" storm. So I certainly get the pessimism up here. The 12z Euro looked like a fairly transient pattern; I don't really see much in the way of stationary waves over the northern hemisphere. But there will be a seasonable to below-average period so either a clipper or a coastal cyclone could always develop. As an example, there are a couple of these systems depicted on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 26, 2017 Author Share Posted January 26, 2017 23 minutes ago, heavy_wx said: Poor Williamsport. The UNV area just doesn't have a great big storm climatology; I think it has been since 2010 that we have had a > 12" storm. So I certainly get the pessimism up here. The 12z Euro looked like a fairly transient pattern; I don't really see much in the way of stationary waves over the northern hemisphere. But there will be a seasonable to below-average period so either a clipper or a coastal cyclone could always develop. As an example, there are a couple of these systems depicted on the 12z GFS. I was looking through the weather station obs (Walker building) around the times of the bigger ones I could think of offhand. The only three events that cracked 12" since 2000 was 2/5/10 with 13.5", 2/17-18/2003 with 18.2", and surprisingly.. 1/7/2002 with 13.0". That January 2002 coastal isn't remembered much, the Sus Valley I think was mostly rain but it throttled the UNV region. I remember it being used as an example in conditional symmetric instability in Meteo 421. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: I was looking through the weather station obs (Walker building) around the times of the bigger ones I could think of offhand. The only three events that cracked 12" since 2000 was 2/5/10 with 13.5", 2/17-18/2003 with 18.2", and surprisingly.. 1/7/2002 with 13.0". That January 2002 coastal isn't remembered much, the Sus Valley I think was mostly rain but it throttled the UNV region. I remember it being used as an example in conditional symmetric instability in Meteo 421. Of course the 90s were ridiculous for snow storms up here; December 1992, March 1993, March 1994, and January 1996 are the major ones that come to my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 4 hours ago, sauss06 said: She turns 21 next week so i'd pencil something in that time frame. Heh. Auuuuuuuright! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 I mean the snow! I mean the snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Honestly this drought has made snow seem like a bigger deal again. Honestly there is a generation of new drivers who've barely had to deal with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 2 hours ago, heavy_wx said: Poor Williamsport. The UNV area just doesn't have a great big storm climatology; I think it has been since 2010 that we have had a > 12" storm. So I certainly get the pessimism up here. The 12z Euro looked like a fairly transient pattern; I don't really see much in the way of stationary waves over the northern hemisphere. But there will be a seasonable to below-average period so either a clipper or a coastal cyclone could always develop. As an example, there are a couple of these systems depicted on the 12z GFS. Down here it's definitely been a go big or go home type of deal for the past 20 years or so. The previous 20 years, not so much. We had a decent storm in I think '78 and a big one in '83, but the years between '83 and '96 were kind of depressing. Everything changed on 1/6/96, and we've been spoiled with MECS ever since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 I will say this has been a terrible winter for snow in York county. I think we have an inch of snow total for the winter. You want to see how bad it is check out ski roundtop. I would say that is the worst I have seen it for this time of the year. Lots of mixed reviews on the February pattern. Not looking so good but long range models have done terrible this year. https://www.skiroundtop.com/live-cameras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 11 hours ago, paweather5 said: I will say this has been a terrible winter for snow in York county. I think we have an inch of snow total for the winter. You want to see how bad it is check out ski roundtop. I would say that is the worst I have seen it for this time of the year. Lots of mixed reviews on the February pattern. Not looking so good but long range models have done terrible this year. https://www.skiroundtop.com/live-cameras It's been a rough 10 days or so at Roundtop. My daughter goes over there quite a bit for skiing, and just a week and a half ago conditions were fabulous. Since then they've endured zero snow making nights and several rain events. They should start blowing again tonight and snow making looks awesome next week. I'm sure by next Friday those cameras will show a different story. Their groomers do a tremendous job, they still have most of their terrain open. Actually, if you want to compare, Liberty's terrain looks a lot worse... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 8 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: It's been a rough 10 days or so at Roundtop. My daughter goes over there quite a bit for skiing, and just a week and a half ago conditions were fabulous. Since then they've endured zero snow making nights and several rain events. They should start blowing again tonight and snow making looks awesome next week. I'm sure by next Friday those cameras will show a different story. Their groomers do a tremendous job, they still have most of their terrain open. Actually, if you want to compare, Liberty's terrain looks a lot worse... my son was over there 2 weeks ago as well and said it was great...but icy on minutman (ER visit to boot - sprained wrist..not broken). Yeah its sucked down here, but like you said, snowmaking has come along way and by next Tues. They'll be back in action. Hope they can finish strong. His ski club has been cancelled 2 out of last 3 weekends at Bear Creek. Not happy. But hey, long range looks better (see 0z and 06z runs on GFS. You snow lovers might rejoice...even if only digital snow...its been a while since we've seen it, and multiple chances no less. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 I think a swfe is in the cards to bail us out in the next few weeks. 4 to 8 type event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: my son was over there 2 weeks ago as well and said it was great...but icy on minutman (ER visit to boot - sprained wrist..not broken). Yeah its sucked down here, but like you said, snowmaking has come along way and by next Tues. They'll be back in action. Hope they can finish strong. His ski club has been cancelled 2 out of last 3 weekends at Bear Creek. Not happy. But hey, long range looks better (see 0z and 06z runs on GFS. You snow lovers might rejoice...even if only digital snow...its been a while since we've seen it, and multiple chances no less. Nut My daughter has an advantage card, she usually goes 4-6 times a season. Funny, she actually prefers getting the night lift ticket (after 5pm) because she doesn't mind when the snow firms up and gets icy after sundown. She's very responsible and is not an aggressive skier at all, so I don't worry about her too much. Yeah...like I said yesterday, it's hard to imagine something not breaking our way in the coming weeks. You never know, but something's bound to deliver for us. Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Snow squall here right now - by far the best snow of the year. It's melting as it hits the ground of course, but hey snow is falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Little Happy Hour loving from the GooFuS. I love eye candy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Are we that screwed that 3 inches is eye candy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 58 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Are we that screwed that 3 inches is eye candy? well yes....so far. Trends buddy....trends. Tonight they are our friends. New pattern...new game. wanna make a beer bet? Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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