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Southeast Winter Storm Threats - Model Performance


griteater
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  • 3 weeks later...

FWIW, I think we should add Sunday's non-storm on this list.

I'm pretty sure the Euro never had a single run in the long/medium range showing this storm while the GFS was spitting out everything from massive ice storms, to heavy rain storms. Now that were 60hrs away from the event it's evident that there is essentially going to be no storm other than the Canadian low that the Euro was advertising all along. Score one for the Euro here...

 

Here is a depiction of the current GFS run for Sunday morning.. with the 168hr prog for the GFS and Euro from last weekend.

gfs3.png

gfs6.png

euro6.png

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4 hours ago, burrel2 said:

FWIW, I think we should add Sunday's non-storm on this list.

I'm pretty sure the Euro never had a single run in the long/medium range showing this storm while the GFS was spitting out everything from massive ice storms, to heavy rain storms. Now that were 60hrs away from the event it's evident that there is essentially going to be no storm other than the Canadian low that the Euro was advertising all along. Score one for the Euro here...

Here is a depiction of the current GFS run for Sunday morning.. with the 168hr prog for the GFS and Euro from last weekend.

burrel - I'm a bit torn on this one because the Euro did have one run where it showed a good storm with icing in NC.  Viewing the old models runs on TT, it looks like the GFS had roughly 4 model runs with wintry precip in the SE...but since it runs 4 times a day, it's more like 2 to 1 when comparing to the Euro.  CMC also had a few runs with wintry precip....so, I'm inclined not to add it since it wasn't a locked in disparity.

 

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 9 months later...

Navgem get's an A+ for this one in the mid-range time frame. No other model latched on to the correct large-scale solution like it did. Ukmet was good as well.

Last place in the mid-range goes to the GFS; however, if you take it's biases in to account you could figure it was showing about exactly what you would expect for the storm. In some ways it's deficiencies are so predictable that it makes the modeled output useful, even though they're wrong! Euro was almost as bad.

Rgem wins the day for short range precip-type prediction and thermal profiles, at least for upstate SC. It was spot on with rain/snow line even from 36hrs out or so. 

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For the Triad, the NAM-3km did the best job with the limited accumulations due to waa.  Most models were depicting snow depths of 5-7 inches for the entire Triad.  The Nam-3km kept insisting that the major accumulations would be in the NW half of the region, which turned out to be the case.  My 1/2" of slush is proof of that.

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7 hours ago, burrel2 said:

Navgem get's an A+ for this one in the mid-range time frame. No other model latched on to the correct large-scale solution like it did. Ukmet was good as well.

Last place in the mid-range goes to the GFS; however, if you take it's biases in to account you could figure it was showing about exactly what you would expect for the storm. In some ways it's deficiencies are so predictable that it makes the modeled output useful, even though they're wrong! Euro was almost as bad.

Rgem wins the day for short range precip-type prediction and thermal profiles, at least for upstate SC. It was spot on with rain/snow line even from 36hrs out or so. 

NAM and RGEM I think we’re the first models to start spitting out huge totals for parts of GA. Even bey didn’t sniff out the big hit possibility until 24-36 hours ahead of time.  The GFS sucked here too.  Had a suppressed nothing and played catch-up to the Euro.  I think you’re right about the NAVGEM it also handled the storm well down his way. 

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47 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

The GFS was terrible.  The Euro and NAM had me in the jackpot zone 49 hours out.  So they sucked too, as far as I'm concerned.  The UK and slimgem did ok, I guess.

The 3km nam never did. It showed things confined to Western NC and did the best overall inside 60 hours, at least for NC. 

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Yeah, than NAM and NAM-3K did a great job picking up on the general trends and even some specifics with ptypes. One of the NAM runs had the snow/sleet mix further SE because of heavier rates, and sure enough, the Triangle had a period of snow and sleet, enough to accumulate in the NW half.

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11 hours ago, snowlover91 said:

The 3km nam never did. It showed things confined to Western NC and did the best overall inside 60 hours, at least for NC. 

3k NAM was fine.  But there were plenty of 12k runs that had a bunch of snow/mix here.  So, I'll be fair split the difference and give it a B-.

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  • 3 weeks later...
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  • 11 months later...

In terms of the precip type translation, it looks like this storm was kind of in between the RGEM/NAM and the Euro/GFS

NAM/RGEM were good with showing precip farther north

The globals like GFS/Euro will almost always tick north in the last 24 hr of models cycles

Ensembles were solid with showing legit threat when Op runs were jumping around

Thoughts?

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15 minutes ago, griteater said:

In terms of the precip type translation, it looks like this storm was kind of in between the RGEM/NAM and the Euro/GFS

NAM/RGEM were good with showing precip farther north

The globals like GFS/Euro will almost always tick north in the last 24 hr of models cycles

Ensembles were solid with showing legit threat when Op runs were jumping around

Thoughts?

One of the best modeled storms from LR on the globals in a while. Was so impressed with new gfs. Put the heavy precip strip right where it ended up from 7 days out along with 5h players.  Kept chucking out 1 to 2 foot totals and they verefied. NAM was to far north with transition, warm nose. Time it got to me damage was done 8+, then the sleet frzng rn moved in. 

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