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Mid-Long Range Discussion 2016-2017


Cary_Snow95

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If you want a good read on some scientific literature behind the MJO and eastern snowfall check out Klotzbach et al. publication from earlier this year in the Monthly Weather Review. Good information about how phases 7-8 favor Southern New England and the East Coast in general

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12 minutes ago, griteater said:

Y'all kidding about this pattern being hopeful, right?  *runs and hides*

 

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LOL...yep, the question isn't if we are going to be warm it's how warm are we going to get.  If you were to dream up a warm winter pattern this is what you would want.  Sucks but it it feel good and cut down on heating bill.

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2 minutes ago, GaStorm said:

How many times have we seen this warm look in the models change when it gets closer to 5 days of the forecast? Seems like the SER is overdone most of the time as well.

You're right, but I don't know that the degree of the warmth matters all that much in the end.  The pattern is a pig, and it doesn't really smell any better with lipstick caked all over it.

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1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

You're right, but I don't know that the degree of the warmth matters all that much in the end.  The pattern is a pig, and it doesn't really smell any better with lipstick caked all over it.

Lol. True it's not a great pattern but at least it's not the torch we had last year.

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Just now, GaStorm said:

Lol. True it's not a great pattern but at least it's not the torch we had last year.

Yup, at least there's that!  I like the tendency for strong highs this year too.  I have a sneaking suspicion that that will be the reason we see at least one widespread winter storm this year....probably more.

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And even when we've supposedly had great patterns we still ended up with nothing to show for up. And sometimes we have had big storms when most of the winter has been in a supposedly bad pattern. I don't think it really matters either way anymore. We're still going to need that small window of time either way when everything comes together right to get a winter storm here. 

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