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Mid-Long Range Discussion 2016-2017

Cary_Snow95

By Cary_Snow95,
in Southeastern States

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CAD_Wedge_NC

CAD_Wedge_NC

Posted
Posted
47 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

Thanks for the info, grit. I was told by a local graduate of the Meteorology program at VA Tech that only 0z and 12z get the "newest" data.

Yes, I have been told that as well. On the other hand, you would think that the runs would not be so vastly different if they are ran from the same data sets. There is new data going into the off-hour runs, but it is not as much new data as the 0z or 12z ingest. Hope that makes sense.....

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted
Yes, I have been told that as well. On the other hand, you would think that the runs would not be so vastly different if they are ran from the same data sets. There is new data going into the off-hour runs, but it is not as much new data as the 0z or 12z ingest. Hope that makes sense.....


The Euro would definitely have a lower verification score if it was also ran 4x/Day. The GFS has that going against it.
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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Yes, I have been told that as well. On the other hand, you would think that the runs would not be so vastly different if they are ran from the same data sets. There is new data going into the off-hour runs, but it is not as much new data as the 0z or 12z ingest. Hope that makes sense.....

Yes, the 12z and 0z runs have the radiosonde data that is not present in the 18z and 6z runs...but as stated in that link, "the radiosonde network only forms a very tiny portion of the global observing system." 

It mentioned, via an example for a specific day, that the aircraft observations assimilated into each model run was highest for the 18z run.

It also states..."Keep in mind that for any given 06h window, we basically have global observation coverage (tons and tons of multi-channel IR, MW and visible satellite data, GPS radio occultations from space, satellite derived atmospheric motion vectors [satellite winds], surface observations, ships/buoys, aircraft, wind profiler, radar, in addition to the radiosonde network). Because of hyperspectral satellites, the number of observations we have access to for any given cycle is on the order of hundreds of millions (though there is a lot of redundant information)....and the number assimilated is on the order of several million."

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

Mack whatcha thinking "besides JB busting" Winter cancel or not cancel? When you think the cold is coming back and first winter storm? :blink: Give me a serious answer....... 

It's seriously looking bleak right now ! I got excited when all the cold air got into Canada and assumed more would get to us, but we only had a few cold days! I'm discouraged about avg to above into the first half of Jan, according to models and indicies! We've had to wait for February the last few years, so we should be used to it! I'm just kind of blah about going forward, but if we finish below normal for December , I think that analogs say we can/ will have a colder than avg Jan and Feb ! Let's get to Feb 1st , and if we are still looking at a ten day pattern that sucks, I will give up! I just thought we weren't going to have to wait till February to get our winter? Definitely cooler than last year, but if it's not getting us winter weather, who cares?? :)

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CAD_Wedge_NC

CAD_Wedge_NC

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

It's seriously looking bleak right now ! I got excited when all the cold air got into Canada and assumed more would get to us, but we only had a few cold days! I'm discouraged about avg to above into the first half of Jan, according to models and indicies! We've had to wait for February the last few years, so we should be used to it! I'm just kind of blah about going forward, but if we finish below normal for December , I think that analogs say we can/ will have a colder than avg Jan and Feb ! Let's get to Feb 1st , and if we are still looking at a ten day pattern that sucks, I will give up! I just thought we weren't going to have to wait till February to get our winter? Definitely cooler than last year, but if it's not getting us winter weather, who cares?? :)

Here's the deal, there are a lot of folks in our mountains that depend on the cold weather for their livelihood. I don't care if it's cold and dry or cold and wet. Just as long as it's cold enough to make snow up there. Those people who claim that we are wasting cold without precip, don't have to depend on the cold for a living....

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cbmclean

cbmclean

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

It's seriously looking bleak right now ! I got excited when all the cold air got into Canada and assumed more would get to us, but we only had a few cold days! I'm discouraged about avg to above into the first half of Jan, according to models and indicies! We've had to wait for February the last few years, so we should be used to it! I'm just kind of blah about going forward, but if we finish below normal for December , I think that analogs say we can/ will have a colder than avg Jan and Feb ! Let's get to Feb 1st , and if we are still looking at a ten day pattern that sucks, I will give up! I just thought we weren't going to have to wait till February to get our winter? Definitely cooler than last year, but if it's not getting us winter weather, who cares?? :)

Based on the results of that poll we he had a few weeks back, a lot of us prefer cold and dry if we can't have cold in wet.

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jshetley

jshetley

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Here's the deal, there are a lot of folks in our mountains that depend on the cold weather for their livelihood. I don't care if it's cold and dry or cold and wet. Just as long as it's cold enough to make snow up there. Those people who claim that we are wasting cold without precip, don't have to depend on the cold for a living....

Yeah i guess they do need cold weather up there for the ski industry. I'll admit I haven't thought too much about that when I say I want warm weather, but still I don't think they need single digits and below 0 to make their snow. 

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Somebody hacked the shuffler machine.  It keeps dealing all red!

FWIW, the very end of Dec and up to the 3rd of Jan, NW Canada and central Canada, look very cold!? As long as we have Canada cold, it can be easily sent down here!? The wheels may be in motion by then and bathtub may begin to build momentum! 

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cbmclean

cbmclean

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

It's JB saying "I suckered you all in again...my forecast busted, BUT IT'S OK, it'll be back to cold and snowy very soon! Please re-subscribe and I'll tell you why!"

In real terms, it's gonna be warm.

To be honest I don't really hear a lot of good things about JB on this site.  From what I hear he is long on hype and short on science.  I used to put a lot of stock in Larry Cohen but I also began to suspect the science content of his forecasts as well.  That being said he does seem to be less histrionic and in this past fall he repeatedly forecast the notable lack of high-latitude blocking so he has that going for him.

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pcbjr

pcbjr

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Somebody hacked the shuffler machine.  It keeps dealing all red!

CR - You do need to update your NAO signature graph - NAO is now up and off the top going forward and some misguided well - whatever - may misinterpret; and OH - by the way - why not include that beautiful negative PNA graph as well? ;)

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, pcbjr said:

CR - You do need to update your NAO signature graph - NAO is now up and off the top going forward and some misguided well - whatever - may misinterpret; and OH - by the way - why not include that beautiful negative PNA graph as well? ;)

You're right, the AO & NAO are (or going) very positive and the PNA is going negative. Also the EPO is positive. The good thing is what goes up usually comes down. These indices have to get at least somewhat better in the coming weeks.

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BIG FROSTY

BIG FROSTY

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

It's seriously looking bleak right now ! I got excited when all the cold air got into Canada and assumed more would get to us, but we only had a few cold days! I'm discouraged about avg to above into the first half of Jan, according to models and indicies! We've had to wait for February the last few years, so we should be used to it! I'm just kind of blah about going forward, but if we finish below normal for December , I think that analogs say we can/ will have a colder than avg Jan and Feb ! Let's get to Feb 1st , and if we are still looking at a ten day pattern that sucks, I will give up! I just thought we weren't going to have to wait till February to get our winter? Definitely cooler than last year, but if it's not getting us winter weather, who cares?? :)

I sorta feel that blah way also. But I really think we may pull out of this horrible looking pattern Mid January or there about, And sneak in a couple good winter storms..... It don't have to be a real cold or good pattern to get lucky with a snow storm!  If it's a real cold pattern it's almost always DRY we just need blocking or something to push the storm tracks to our south if we want snow. Now we can get Ice with a cold pattern and cutters aka WEDGE..... I hope we all can get in on some winter weather action before spring.

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