Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 12 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Next year guys. We are done. Goose is cooked. This won't turn around anytime soon. We can write off this winter knowing we have had good run. 2017-18 is gonna be great. We are 3 days away from the official start of winter and you are already giving up ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 4 hours ago, BristowWx said: Next year guys. We are done. Goose is cooked. This won't turn around anytime soon. We can write off this winter {year} knowing we have had good run. 2017 is gonna be great. Well, the good thing about it is that next year is only a couple of weeks away, Fixed it for you...lol. Seriously, you can't possibly know the outcome of the rest of winter. I will quote your post when we are looking at a HECS in mid-Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 1 hour ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Well, the good thing about it is that next year is only a couple of weeks away, Fixed it for you...lol. Seriously, you can't possibly know the outcome of the rest of winter. I will quote your post when we are looking at a HECS in mid-Jan. Won't be in Jan. Jan is 100% done. If we get winter weather it will have to wait until Feb 15 at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 9 minutes ago, jshetley said: Won't be in Jan. Jan is 100% done. If we get winter weather it will have to wait until Feb 15 at least. Good stuff! Scientifically based! Comedy gold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Come March when we look back at this winter are we going to say "we should have known the pattern would flip mid Jan". Or are we going to say "we should have known this winter would suck". Because this could be the worst pattern to start off Jan in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 17 minutes ago, jshetley said: Won't be in Jan. Jan is 100% done. If we get winter weather it will have to wait until Feb 15 at least. Looked at 6z GFS , and determined that was a lie!!! And you are not the father! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Good stuff! Scientifically based! Comedy gold! Lol just what I was thinking. Last year this time was absolutely horrible! This year is not even close to last year. If I was looking at it right it looks like the 06Z GFS had moved towards the euro for the mid range trough. Sure we are not tracking winter storms yet but maybe sone need to take a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 2 hours ago, packbacker said: Come March when we look back at this winter are we going to say "we should have known the pattern would flip mid Jan". Or are we going to say "we should have known this winter would suck". Because this could be the worst pattern to start off Jan in a long time. Meh it looks zonal. Iv seen worst. This will change but personally I don't see full blown torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Hard to trust EPS day 10-15 mean with the EPS still continuing to struggle Day 10. An important day for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 16 minutes ago, Jon said: Hard to trust EPS day 10-15 mean with the EPS still continuing to struggle Day 10. An important day for many. Agree...we won't trust until mid-Jan but then when it starts showing a flip we can start trusting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Agree...we won't trust until mid-Jan but then when it starts showing a flip we can start trusting it. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Lol I know Grit posted about this yesterday but what the heck happened...one of the weakest early season strat PV's and just a increase in the AO during this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 It is interesting seeing the changes in the ENSO regions...this doesn't scream nina for next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Agree...we won't trust until mid-Jan but then when it starts showing a flip we can start trusting it.Yeah, Day 10-15 has an amazing verification score, it should be taken as gospel no matter what it shows. See what I did there?Anyway, I see no indications of a stellar pattern, but the EPS is stuggling Day 7, period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Until we get some blocking storms will cut and we will get brief cool downs behind the storms. Hopefully we can get a change in the Pacific too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 I believe Cohen has created an excellent way to predict the AO. You simply predict the opposite of what his research found and you'll be right almost every year! I'm rooting for lowest SAI advancement on record for the month of October next year... who's with me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Surprised I hadn't seen ten maps of the 6z GFS "event" the day after Christmas yet. I bet the 12z is a cutter from hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 33 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Surprised I hadn't seen ten maps of the 6z GFS "event" the day after Christmas yet. I bet the 12z is a cutter from hell. Right on cue! LP jumps from the GOM on 6z to Ohio on the 12z In ALL honesty, why does the GFS run 4x daily when there's only fresh balloon data 2x daily? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 5 minutes ago, Jonathan said: In ALL honesty, why does the GFS run 4x daily when there's only fresh balloon data 2x daily? To keep us all on the edge of a cliff, if not the precipice of insanity. It's all so very simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 I think we can safely say the EPS and GEFS have both sucked in the LR. That seems pretty normal to me. They've both shown sustained cold and warm patterns so far, and we've really ended up being at or slightly below normal so far. The only things I feel comfortable concluding are that there is somewhat of a tendency for a SER and for the opposite of blocking to occur. So far, this has not led to an outright sustained torch pattern, so that's good. But lol at any winter pattern setting in for the foreseeable future regardless of what one or two runs of an ensemble suite shows. The atmosphere is in a prove it to me mode...but that's just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 That's ok, I will take more of the same. Give me a January with below normal temps (like Dec) and normal precip, and I will be alright with it. Just don't give me a torch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 1 hour ago, franklin NCwx said: Until we get some blocking storms will cut and we will get brief cool downs behind the storms. Hopefully we can get a change in the Pacific too. The mountains were supposed to clean up this winter with lots of NWF events, so far that hasn't worked out. We would have scored a pretty severe ice storm Friday night, if we had more abundant moisture, in the CAD regions.So as has been said ad nausium, we don't need blocking the to get wintry precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Maybe the cold snap Thursday- Sat and the devastating ice event Friday night and Saturday morning, was our front-load and the rest of the winter is toast?? I'm starting to sound like Pack and Shetley!? Maybe it won't snow until March, ala 2009! I'd wait for that, in a heartbeat! 8" of paste! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpegee_cartes.php?ech=27&code=0&mode=9&carte=2 méchant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Fronts coming through. Nice rain shower heading into the 50s now. Top out at 64. Ice on the way tommorrow. Got a sleet sounding for this. Rah at 40%. Well see where the front sets up shop tonight along the coast. Be nice to get the second advisory of the season and still be a week out from Christmas. Someone between i85 and i95 in NC could get a nice little suprise tommorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 2 hours ago, burrel2 said: I believe Cohen has created an excellent way to predict the AO. You simply predict the opposite of what his research found and you'll be right almost every year! I'm rooting for lowest SAI advancement on record for the month of October next year... who's with me? I hate to make fun of honest scientific effort even when it turns out wrong, but one might have to concur that the SAI theory has taken a beating the last few years. I welcome any and all serious research into the AO, NAO, PNA etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 34 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Maybe the cold snap Thursday- Sat and the devastating ice event Friday night and Saturday morning, was our front-load and the rest of the winter is toast?? I'm starting to sound like Pack and Shetley!? Maybe it won't snow until March, ala 2009! I'd wait for that, in a heartbeat! 8" of paste! Don't lump me in with you...I sound nothing like that. I am on board for a snowy back end. 1-2" for RDU, seems improbable now but it won't come end of Jan into Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 1 minute ago, cbmclean said: I hate to make fun of honest scientific effort even when it turns out wrong, but one might have to concur that the SAI theory has taken a beating the last few years. I welcome any and all serious research into the AO, NAO, PNA etc. Snow cover ranks right up there with the wooly worm or whatever that animal is that sees its shadow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 6 hours ago, packbacker said: Come March when we look back at this winter are we going to say "we should have known the pattern would flip mid Jan". Or are we going to say "we should have known this winter would suck". Because this could be the worst pattern to start off Jan in a long time. 4 hours ago, Met1985 said: Meh it looks zonal. Iv seen worst. This will change but personally I don't see full blown torch. I don't know Met, that pattern has a lot of terrible in it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 15 minutes ago, packbacker said: Snow cover ranks right up there with the wooly worm or whatever that animal is that sees its shadow. Well, it was presented in a peer-reviewed paper in a reputable journal so I wouldn't equate it with Puxatawny Phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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