griteater Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 I thought we were La neutral about right now, and the Nina was weak to begin with? Shouldn't that help our pattern not be totally Nina-ish?It's weak and borderline with the sea surface temperatures, but the tropical convection pattern in the Pacific is very much La Niña like, and has been for a while now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 8 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I thought we were La neutral about right now, and the Nina was weak to begin with? Shouldn't that help our pattern not be totally Nina-ish? That's what I thought? I know I've heard Joe D say we were more in a La nada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 Not sure how this is going to affect things. Strat stuff is above my head. Anyways here it is. https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2459656/solar-storm-to-batter-earth-this-christmas-after-flare-shoots-from-massive-hole-in-the-sun/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 Not sure how this is going to affect things. Strat stuff is above my head. Anyways here it is.https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2459656/solar-storm-to-batter-earth-this-christmas-after-flare-shoots-from-massive-hole-in-the-sun/Geomag spike is not good for -NAO, which is interesting considering some of today's model trends in that region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 10 minutes ago, griteater said: Geomag spike is not good for -NAO, which is interesting considering some of today's model trends in that region LOL...we have enough problems without solar flares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 35 minutes ago, griteater said: Geomag spike is not good for -NAO, which is interesting considering some of today's model trends in that region Figures, right after I've jumped full bore on the gravy train for January. Sure models have no clue about a solar storm. But if 7 to 10 days from now they do a 180 and start advertising torch inside 5 days, I'll know the culprit. Bet the house this news mag sensationalized this event as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 This channel gives a pretty good quick daily summary of solar activity, earthquakes, and other things: https://m.youtube.com/user/Suspicious0bservers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 Must be something good for WxSouth to chime in. https://twitter.com/WxSouth/status/812108235570298884 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 cold chasing moisture still showing up on the 30th, few runs in a row now showing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 5 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: cold chasing moisture still showing up on the 30th, few runs in a row now showing it. Looks to warm up right after though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 looks like wintry wx in northern nc @ 264 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 1 hour ago, NCSNOW said: Not sure how this is going to affect things. Strat stuff is above my head. Anyways here it is. https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2459656/solar-storm-to-batter-earth-this-christmas-after-flare-shoots-from-massive-hole-in-the-sun/ We haven't had a solar flare in a while. No clue how old those images are but the strongest flare we've seen in the past 3 days was only a B-class flare, very weak. That's possibly the most click-baity and poorly written article I've seen lately (not surprising given the source). We're inside a coronal hole but that has nothing to do with any solar flares. We hit G2 storming levels briefly yesterday but that's routine. The sun is extremely quiet right now as we head to solar min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 My completely unscientific guess is that any trough in the east will be short-lived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 I have a feeling some modeling today or tomorrow will start spitting out some southern fantasy snows (the 10"+ type) just largely due to the pattern the GFS and others keep hinting at with the deep toughing and plenty of energy ejecting south. Eventually the model will hit and the forum will freak out...but it will be out past day 10. Sigh.I'm confident in some cold New Year's Eve. Only question is does the -NAO develop and how far negative the EPO gets. If we can get some decent blocking that holds even for a day or two after the trough swings down, we can have possibly a solid week of troughing with the PV lobe swinging back around and in on itself. then who knows, maybe we get "stuck" in a decent -EPO for a while. The only issue with thinking about sustained troughing is king Euro says no on the means, but then again I don't believe the EPS is 100% correct as it continues to adjust towards its OP inside day 10. Keep in mind however a slight SER is favored on a majority of La Ninas and a slight SER doesn't always mean no snow, also. We can have storms in the pattern modeled by the GFS Jan 1+. This is close to a best-case scenario for a La Niña year headed into January. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 Here you go, Jon. Right on cue is the GFS parallel: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 1 hour ago, packfan98 said: Here you go, Jon. Right on cue is the GFS parallel: I like the placement and strength of those highs to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 Euro and 6z GFS were meh, at best! Pack, you were right! December will finis above normal, the Christmas/ after Christmas torch is fo real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: I like the placement and strength of those highs to the NW. Just playing Debbi Downer, too far west! That one entering the Pac NW, looks poised to drop south and get the trough back on the West coast!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 Allan Huffman's four Twitter posts this AM are not too encouraging in the short term. https://twitter.com/RaleighWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 12 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Euro and 6z GFS were meh, at best! Pack, you were right! December will finis above normal, the Christmas/ after Christmas torch is fo real That's been the pattern this year. We get one or two days in a row of model runs showing favorable patterns setting up in the LR getting everyone excited, only to watch them evolve into meh patterns in subsequent runs. Hopefully, we can start to see something nice work into the 5 day range so we can get excited for real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jasonl Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 40 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: That's been the pattern this year. We get one or two days in a row of model runs showing favorable patterns setting up in the LR getting everyone excited, only to watch them evolve into meh patterns in subsequent runs. Hopefully, we can start to see something nice work into the 5 day range so we can get excited for real. It's better than the sweltering heat of August wouldn't you say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 3 minutes ago, Jasonl said: It's better than the sweltering heat of August wouldn't you say? Infinitely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 Looking at this I keep expecting a ridge to pop just off the west coast but never does. Be nice to just get a neutral PNA. Said this yesterday...something is going to give, either the -EPO or -PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 4 hours ago, packfan98 said: Here you go, Jon. Right on cue is the GFS parallel: Nice, 12z GFS with a full fledged -EPO deep trough into east 1/01... 500mb vort map is strung out, but depending on what energy is under that trough & the phase, look out...could be looking at a threat for 1/01 if the s/w works out. Get ready for some wild fantasy looks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 11 minutes ago, Jon said: Nice, 12z GFS with a full fledged -EPO deep trough into east 1/01... 500mb vort map is strung out, but depending on what energy is under that trough & the phase, look out...could be looking at a threat for 1/01 if the s/w works out. Get ready for some wild fantasy looks! Sounds good! I need a 1/1 event, so I don't have to go back to work on 1/2! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 16 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Sounds good! I need a 1/1 event, so I don't have to go back to work on 1/2! Does rain count as an event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 5 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Does rain count as an event? In the midst of the worst drought ever, yes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 Euro, same ole , same ole! 2-3 day cold shot , then warm up! No wintry threats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jasonl Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Euro, same ole , same ole! 2-3 day cold shot , then warm up! No wintry threats! So depressing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 6z GFS para, still rocking the Jan 1st/2nd cold chasing moisture storm! So we're golden! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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